游戏机的未来在于平板电脑

    刚刚过去的黑色星期五和网络星期一中，Wii U大卖，这一幕让人觉得似曾相识。与2006年推出Wii时的情景相似，由于这款游戏机具有全新而强大的图形处理功能以及新颖的输入装置，狂热的游戏迷们对它津津乐道。因此，它的销量情理之中地赢得了强劲的开门红。该公司估计已经售出了40万台Wii U。由于产品卖得飞快，众多零售商的库存已经告急。

    乍一看，似乎任天堂公司（Nintendo）的Wii U开启了电子游戏机新一轮的热销周期。新款的微软（Microsoft）Xbox和索尼（Sony）的Playstation按计划要明年才上市，它们的首次周末推介会很可能也会盛大隆重。不过，这些设备的长期发展前景就完全是另一码事了。这些新款游戏机尽管纷纷高调亮相，但它们代表的是一个快速衰退的生态系统。

    未来12个月里将要开售的第八代游戏机在使用寿命内的销量将赶不上前辈。但这只是个开始。从我们公司内部及行业分析师的预测来看，它们的销量很有可能下降30%以上。大多数忠实游戏迷抢购完初期上市的产品后数年里，销量将开始大幅下挫。

    如果这种预测成真，背后原因只有一个：那就是平板电脑。基本上毫无疑问的是，出自亚马逊公司（Amazon）、苹果公司（Apple）和谷歌公司（Google）的平板电脑将会成为新款游戏机。造成这一变化的三个强大趋势是：硬件平台不断改进、软件业商业模式变化、消费者对便利性要求不断提高。（在此可披露一点：本人的公司正是为平板电脑开发游戏的。）

    先来看看硬件。对广大玩家，特别是“核心”玩家来说，游戏机的硬件更占优势，因为它们特制的图形处理和计算硬件比同等价位的PC或苹果电脑（Mac）性能更强劲。但平板电脑设计者也已开始在图形处理上认真下功夫了。苹果的操作系统iOS和谷歌的安卓（Android）生态系统都是如此。比如现在平板电脑的屏幕分辨率普遍要胜过一般的游戏机。而且，平板电脑的图形处理能力也开始后来居上，正是它使游戏变得日益真实生动，引人入胜。

    实际上，最新一代iPad的图形处理单元已经比新款Wii U更强劲了——许多针对新款苹果产品游戏性能的评测都谈到了这一点。尽管明年推出的Xbox和Playstation也许在图形处理能力上要比现在的平板电脑略胜一筹，但这种优势很可能会转瞬即逝。

    The availability of Nintendo's Wii U on Black Friday and Cyber Monday was source of déjà vu. Much like the 2006 release of the original Wii, diehard video gamers have been chattering about trying out the console's powerful new graphics and novel input device. Sales, not surprisingly, have gotten off to a strong start. The company has already sold an estimated 400,000 units. Many retailers had trouble keeping the game machine in stock.

    At first glance, it may seem like Nintendo's (NTDOY) Wii U is starting the video game console cycle all over again. New versions of the Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox and Sony (SNE) PlayStation are slated to arrive next year, and their first-weekend introductions are likely to be just as eventful. But the long-term outlook for these devices is entirely different. These new consoles, despite their high-profile launches, represent a rapidly decaying ecosystem.

    The eighth generation of game consoles we will see in the next 12 months will, over their life spans, sell in lower quantities than the generation that preceded them. That will be a first. The best guess, both from inside our company and from industry analysts, is the fall-off will be more than 30%. Much of the decline will be in the out years of sales, after the most loyal fans have snapped up early units.

    If this happens, there will be a one-word explanation: tablets. There can be little doubt that tablets from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Google (GOOG) are the new consoles. Three powerful mega-trends are causing this change: ever-improving hardware platforms, shifting software business models, and consumers' increasingly high demand for convenience. (Full disclosure: my company makes games for tablets.)

    Take hardware first. Game consoles enjoyed an edge for players, especially "core" gamers, because their specialized graphics and computing hardware outperformed comparably priced PCs or Macs. But tablet designers have begun taking graphics seriously. This is true in both the Apple iOS and Google Android ecosystems. Screen resolutions of tablets now often beat what is commonly available for consoles. And the under-the-hood graphics processing power -- what makes game play increasingly realistic and exciting -- is catching up as well.

    In fact, the latest iPad already has a graphics processing unit more powerful than what will be shipping in the new Wii U -- a fact pointed out in many gaming-oriented reviews of the new Apple product. While next year's Xbox and PlayStation will probably be slightly ahead of the current crop of tablets in graphics capabilities, the superiority is likely to be short-lived.