Adobe的云战略能否成功？

    2011年9月初的一天，Adobe公司的首席执行官山塔努•纳拉延和十几个公司高管在加州卡梅尔山谷的一个温泉浴场里搞“团队拓展”。每个人都要说几句，谈谈自己在2011年印象最深的事儿。据在场的人讲，活动开始不久，发生了奇怪的事情。“讨论突然热烈起来，”负责数字营销的高级副总裁布拉德•兰切尔说。沉闷的气氛被打破后，大家的情绪很快倾泻出来，开始讨论起公司面临的一些更紧迫的问题。他说：“大家都认为，我们有一些艰难的决策要做。”

    那次反思后，CEO纳拉延启动了Adobe公司30年历史上最大的一次转型。Adobe公司为数字艺术家、影像制作者、网络管理员和内容创建者等提供多种软件工具，并因此而声名赫赫。而现在这样一家知名公司却宣布将裁撤750个工作岗位，裁掉、限制或合并一些业务部门。Adobe的高管们表示，公司将把更多精力放在发展数字营销业务上。而Adobe最具标志性的软件业务则会进一步向云计算领域转型，收费模式也会从预先支付模式转变为按月订购模式。纳拉延说：“只想维持现状的企业肯定会失败。”

    不过这次重大战略转型却吓了投资者们一跳。Adobe不仅正在向新的收入模式转型，同时也在努力挤进竞争极为激烈的在线营销领域。Adobe采取的这些举措发生在它与苹果公司（Apple）的Flash大战失败之后。其后三周内，投资者们纷纷“解套”，Adobe的股价猛跌了15%。

    一年后，Adobe的新政日益显示出正确性，而且明年很可能带来积极的效果。去年由于分析师们认可了纳拉延的方案，导致Adobe的股价一年来增长了34%。由预先支付模式转变为按月订购模式将有助于提高2013年的利润，最终有助于确保公司获得更稳健的收入。Cowen & Co公司分析师彼得•古德曼彻指出：“向按月订购模式转变是降低价格的一个聪明而且深思熟虑的办法。”

    Adobe在塑料薄膜包装的软件如日中天的时代取得了巨大的成功，成了企业应对科技变革的成功范例。像其他科技巨头一样，Adobe也必须在云计算、移动设备和社交网络的兴起中谋发展，同时高度瞄准在线营销。同时Adobe的转型也迫使它必须和全球几家最强大的科技公司竞争，其中有些还是Adobe自己的忠实盟友，比如它必须与微软（Microsoft）和苹果（Apple）在一些生产力项目上竞争，与IBM和谷歌（Google）在数字营销上竞争。

    纳拉延和科技总监凯文•林奇先从公司最拿手的业务下手。Adobe的创意套件Creative Suite的年产值达20亿美元左右。Creative Suite作为公司的旗舰产品包含了Photoshop、Acrobat以及用于杂志出版的InDesign等16个软件，许可证费用高达2,600美元，光是升级费用就达到了1,400美元（通常每18个月进行一次升级）。今年年初，Adobe推出了Creative Cloud，通过网络在线提供与Creative Suite相同的产品。Creative Cloud很像谷歌或Dropbox等新锐公司提供的类似软件，也是通过云端存取文档。如果订阅用户停止付费，存取权限就被切断。这项服务每月收费20到50美元。

    Adobe chief Shantanu Narayen and a dozen of his top executives were sequestered in a tony Carmel Valley spa in California. It was early September of 2011, and the group was running through a corporate bonding exercise. Everyone was to take a penny and recount what they were doing during the year stamped on the coin. Eyes began to roll, according to those present. Then something strange happened. "It just blew up," recalls Brad Rencher, a senior VP in charge of digital marketing. The icebreaker quickly turned into an outpouring of emotion about the far more pressing issues facing the company. "Everyone felt we had some hard decisions to make," he says.

    After the retreat CEO Narayen unveiled the biggest transformation in Adobe's 30-year history. The firm best known as a purveyor of tools for digital artists, filmmakers, webmasters, and content creators would shed 750 jobs, shutter or limit business units, and combine others. Adobe (ADBE), executives said, would focus more on growing its digital-marketing business. Its iconic software, meanwhile, would transition further to the cloud, shifting from a pay-beforehand model to monthly subscriptions. "Companies that simply try to preserve the status quo will fail," says Narayen.

    But the dramatic shift spooked investors. Not only was the company making a risky transition to a new revenue model, but it was also elbowing its way into the competitive arena of online marketing. All this was happening in the wake of the company's ugly public battle with Apple over Flash -- which Adobe had lost. Its stock plunged 15% during the next three weeks as investors bailed out.

    One year later Adobe's moves increasingly appear shrewd and likely to produce positive results next year. The stock has risen 34% over the past year as analysts have been won over by Narayen's plans. Switching to a subscription model will weigh on profits through 2013 but could eventually ensure steadier revenue. "The move to subscriptions is a clever and thoughtful way to lower the price point," says Cowen & Co. analyst Peter Goldmacher.

    Adobe, which grew powerful during the heyday of shrinkwrapped, boxed software, has become a model for companies coping with tech's changing landscape. Like other giants, Adobe must navigate the rise of the cloud, mobile gadgets, social networking, and highly targeted online advertising. Adobe's transformation also pits it against the world's most powerful tech firms -- some of them its most ardent allies: Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) in productivity programs, IBM (IBM) and Google (GOOG) in digital marketing.

    Narayen and Kevin Lynch, the company's chief technology officer, started with their bread and butter: Creative Suite, a business worth some $2 billion annually. The company's flagship product bundles as many as 16 programs, such as Photoshop and Acrobat, as well as InDesign for magazine publishing. Creative Suite licenses ran as high as $2,600, or $1,400 for upgrades, which usually came out every 18 months. Earlier this year Adobe introduced Creative Cloud, the same suite of products accessible online. Much like software from younger companies Google or Dropbox, documents are stored and accessible via the cloud. If a subscriber stops paying, access is cut off. The service costs $20 to $50 a month.