亚马逊债券评级之谜

    最近，亚马逊（Amazon）发行了25亿美元的债券。如果债券在大受欢迎的亚马逊网站上售卖，将会获得两种截然不同、令人困惑的评价：有人会给出接近五星的好评，有人则会给出一星差评。

    11月末，这家在线零售商发行债券的前几天，评估机构标准普尔（Standard & Poor）发布了对其债券的评估报告。标准普尔给出的评级为AA-，与美国政府获得的评级相差不远。后者尽管近期遭遇财政危机，仍被认为颇具信用，获得了AA+的评分。标准普尔的分析师、负责评估亚马逊债券的大卫•昆茨说：“我们认为亚马逊的违约概率非常小。”

    同一天，穆迪（Moody’s）也发布了对亚马逊债券的评定：近似于垃圾债券。确切的评级是Baa1，相当于BBB+，仅比确定投资是否安全的及格线高两级。

    评估机构有时的确会对同一债券交易给出不同的评价，不过这次对亚马逊债券评估的差距之大仍属罕见。标准普尔和穆迪公司的评级相差四级，独立债券研究机构吉米信贷公司（Gimme Credit）的高级分析师大卫•诺沃塞尔称这种事“简直是前所未闻。”

    换个角度看，这相当于中国和意大利的差距。中国的GDP每年增速超过7%，标准普尔对其信用评级为AA-。意大利去年差点遭遇主权债务危机，评级为BBB+。标准普尔的前信贷部门主管马克•阿德尔森在推行更严格的评级标准后，于八月离职。他说他于一年前查看过125家公司的CDX北美投资级指数（CDX North American Investment Grade index）评分，发现标准普尔和穆迪公司对其他公司的信用评价几乎没什么不同。阿德尔森说：“有时会有差别，但是四级的差距实在太大了。”

    更奇怪的是，这个分歧发生在亚马逊身上。这是一家相对没有债务、最近深得股票投资者青睐的公司。亚马逊股价今年涨幅超过45%，最近达到了253美元。

    穆迪公司不看好亚马逊债券行情看重的是一个事实：亚马逊最近的财报显示，公司的利润已经降至六年来的最低值。分析家称，由于市场竞争加剧，运输费用提高，其盈利空间很可能继续走低。此外，穆迪的分析师认为，亚马逊大力推动设备和其他网络服务会导致更多资本支出，拖累盈利水平。

    Amazon's recent $2.5 billion bond offering, if it were listed on the popular retailer's website, would get two very different and confusing reviews: One for nearly five stars; the other for just over one.

    Days before the online retailer's late November debt deal, ratings agency Standard & Poor's issued its report on the soon-to-be sold bond. S&P gave Amazon's debt an AA-. That's not much different a rating than that of the U.S. government, which, despite the country's recent fiscal problems, is still considered sterling credit and gets an AA+. "We think Amazon has a very low probability of default," says David Kuntz, S&P's analyst who rated the bond.

    On the same day, Moody's came out with its rating for Amazon's debt: Nearly junk. The actual rating was Baa1, which is the equivalent of BBB+ and only two steps up from the demarcation line between what is considered a safe investment and what's not.

    While the ratings agencies do sometimes give different ratings to the same bond deal, it's very rare for them to diverge as widely as they have on Amazon. David Novosel, a senior analyst at independent bond research house Gimme Credit, says a four notch difference, which is the spread between S&P's rating and Moody's, is "almost unheard of."

    Another way to think about it is the different between China and Italy. China, which is growing its GDP at more than 7%, gets an AA- rating from S&P. Italy, on the other hand, was seen last year to be on the verge of a sovereign debt crisis. It gets a rating of BBB+.About a year ago, S&P's former chief credit officer Mark Adelson, who left the agency in August after pushing for stricter ratings criteria, says he went through the ratings of the 125 companies in the CDX North American Investment Grade index. He says he found little difference between S&P and Moody's on any of the companies. "Splits happen," says Adelson. "But a four notch difference is quite big."

    Even stranger is that the split is on Amazon, a company that has relatively little debt and is these days beloved by stock investors. Shares of Amazon (AMZN) are up more than 45% this year to a recent $253.

    Moody's (MCO), the more bearish of the two, focused on the fact that Amazon recently reported its lowest level of profits in six years. The analysts said profit margins were likely to stay down, due to rising competition and increased shipping costs. In addition, Moody's analysts said they thought the company's push into devices and other online services will require more capital spending, which would also drag down profits.