策略师：美国总统就职日，财政悬崖大限时

    高盛资产管理（Goldman Sachs Asset Management）董事长吉姆·奥尼尔表示，美国总统奥巴马和共和党人士还有三周时间可以达成预算协议。如果在1月20日美国总统正式宣誓就职前不能达成协议、避免财政悬崖，他预计市场将大跌。

    “市场依然认为我们会在宣誓就职日前达成协议，”奥尼尔表示。“如果谈不拢就麻烦了。”

    虽然最近美国股市略有下跌，市场并未对财政悬崖做出强烈反应——加税及缩减政府开支定于1月1日起实施。一些人认为，由于财政悬崖事实上更像是一个斜坡，会随着时间的推移逐步加深，对市场的影响也将逐步加剧。上周，笔者说过，此次财政悬崖或许根本就损害不到市场。

    但高盛的奥尼尔认为，虽然1月2日市场可能不会大跌，但美国股市走势不受财政悬崖影响的时间不会持续多久了。奥尼尔是一位拥趸众多的市场策略师，他最出名的就是在10多年前创造了“金砖四国”（BRIC）一词，用来描述巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国经济的兴起。

    “现在，特别是茶党人士中间，存在这样一种有观点，认为如果发生一场危机，推动预算方面出现应有的突破，或许不是什么坏事，”奥尼尔说。“这种想法有点危险。”

    奥尼尔表示，问题是，总体而言，现在的美国股市没有太多吸引力。他说，美国股市远没有一、两年前那么有吸引力了。当时，美国第一个走出了经济衰退。这也正是为何奥尼尔认为，如果不能达成财政悬崖协议，美国股市可能遭遇重创。美国股市比一些人想象地更有韧性。此前，面对一些不那么糟糕的消息，美国股市都轻松顶住了冲击。

    另外，奥尼尔表示，美国不是欧洲，美国股市此前也得益于此。欧债问题导致投资者将美国作为避风港。但奥尼尔表示，这种情况似乎正在发生变化。他认为，到明年年中，欧洲可能已经达成协议，投资者对欧元区的债务问题感到较为安心，导致更多的资产流出美国。

    奥尼尔说：“最近我和一些超大型投资者、特别是亚洲的投资者，进行了会面。给我的感觉是，人们越来越认为，欧洲在应对财政问题方面做得比美国好得多。”

    Jim O'Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says President Obama and Republicans have another three weeks to make a budget deal. He says if there isn't a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff by inauguration day, which is officially January 20th, the market will plunge.

    "The market is still assuming we will have a deal by inauguration day," says O'Neill. "If not, problem."

    While stocks have fallen a bit recently, the market has yet to freak out about the fiscal cliff - the mix of tax increases and government spending cuts that are set to begin January 1st. Some have argued that since the fiscal cliff is actually more like a slope, with changes being phased in over time, the market impact will be gradual as well. Last week, I argued that the fiscal cliff might not actually hurt the market at all.

    Goldman's O'Neill, though, says that while the market won't likely plunge on January 2, he thinks stocks won't shrug off the fiscal cliff for much longer, either. O'Neill, a widely followed market strategist, is best known for coining the term BRICs more than a decade ago to describe the growing emergence of the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

    "There is this view, particularly among some of these Tea Party guys, that maybe to get a proper budget breakthrough it's not a bad thing if there's a crisis," says O'Neill. "That thinking is a bit dangerous."

    The problem, according to O'Neill, is there's not that much to like about U.S. stocks in general. He says U.S. stocks are not nearly as attractive as they were a year or two ago, when the U.S. was first coming out of the recession. That's why O'Neill says the lack of a fiscal cliff deal could hit the U.S. stock market, which has been coasting along on not so bad news, harder than some people think.

    What's more, O'Neill says U.S. markets have benefited from not being Europe. Debt problems there have caused investors to seek out the safety of the U.S. O'Neill says that seems to be changing. He thinks by mid-year we could have a deal in Europe that will make investors feel a lot more comfortable with the Euro's debt problems, and as a result shift more and more of their assets out of the U.S.

    "The meetings I have had with very large investors recently, particularly in Asia, left me with the idea that there is a growing realization that Europe is dealing with some of its fiscal issues much better than the U.S.," says O'Neill.