小布什智囊谈政治

    对于有些人而言，卡尔•罗夫就是美国共和党的大脑和灵魂。多年来，他曾为共和党诸多要人担任过咨询顾问。最值得一提的是他曾为乔治•W•布什设计了2000年和2004年的总统大选，并取得了成功。近期，他共同创立并帮助管理的超级政治行动委员会（PAC）美国十字路口（American Crossroads）与其他相关团体一起，为米特•罗姆尼的总统竞选筹集了超过1亿美元资金。

    罗夫也是一位公众人物。他为《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）撰写专栏，2012年大选期间还频频出现在福克斯新闻频道（Fox News）中。众所周知，在大选夜，罗夫在福克斯新闻频道上声称，切莫过早断言摇摆州——俄亥俄州会选择奥巴马，导致该频道空中连线自己的专家预测小组。

    日前，罗夫对话《财富》杂志（Fortune ），畅谈领导一个超级政治行动委员会（PAC）比打造一场政治竞选更容易的缘由，以及他对自己被神化的无能为力。

    下面是经过编辑的采访记录。

    《财富》杂志：相比其他领导型职务，顾问更多的是在幕后工作。如何影响大权在握的人？

    卡尔•罗夫：我不是太认同“大权在握”这种说法。我倒是认为，无论何时向政治客户、政党候选人或商业组织提供建议时，都必须要了解他们的决策方式，以及他们的最终目的是什么。然后，必须要非常地直截了当。

    真的吗？很有意思。因为普遍的看法是政客们总是避实就虚。

    你知道，人们能在头脑里同时记忆相互冲突的情绪和矛盾的意见。因此，一位政治候选人或一位执权者需要知道最好的政策，以及解释这一政策的最佳方式。但有时，即便做的事情是正确的，也不一定被广泛接受。

    回顾来看，出兵伊拉克是当年乔治•W•布什做出的正确决定。但这项决定当年不得人心，今天依然不得人心。

    你认为这项决定不受欢迎是因为沟通不好？

    不，有时候人们对于一项政策的看法不一定对。现在，他们或许终于可以回过头来说，“它在当时是正确的决定，”但有争议的措施出现争议往往是有原因的。

    这些年来你和很多不同的政治家合作过。你如何协调一位候选人的需求与整个党派的需求？

    每个政党都是由一大群独立演员组成，演员们各自撰写自己的剧本。一般来说，由于美国两党大致可分为一个中左，一个中右，脚本大同小异。

    To some, Karl Rove is the heart and soul of the GOP. He has a long history of counseling prominent Republicans. Most memorably, he designed George W. Bush's successful presidential campaigns in 2000 and 2004. Recently, he co-founded and helped run the super PAC American Crossroads, which, along with affiliated groups, raised over $100 million for Governor Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.

    Rove is also a public figure. He writes a column for the Wall Street Journal, and was frequently on Fox News during the 2012 election. On election night, Rove famously told the network to be cautious about calling swing state Ohio for Obama too soon, which spurred the network to interview its own decision desk on air.

    Rove spoke with Fortune about why leading a super PAC is easier than building a political campaign and how he can't do anything about being a myth.

    An edited transcript is below.

    Fortune: Leading as an advisor is more behind the scenes than other kinds of leadership. What is it like to influence these incredibly powerful people?

    Karl Rove: Well, I'm not certain I would necessarily agree with the term "incredibly powerful people." I do think that whenever you give advice to political clients, political candidates, or business organizations, you have to understand how they go about making decisions and what's their ultimate goal. And then there just has to be an incredible amount of directness.

    Really? That's interesting. Because there's a general view that politicians dance around issues.

    Well, you know, people are capable of keeping conflicting emotions and conflicting opinions of things in their brains at the same time. So a political candidate or an office holder needs to understand the best policy and then what's the best way to explain that policy. But sometimes, even doing the right thing will not be well received.

    In retrospect, the surge in Iraq was the right decision for George W. Bush, but it was an unpopular decision at the time and it remains unpopular today.

    Do you think it was unpopular because it wasn't communicated correctly?

    No, look, sometimes people just don't have a good opinion about a particular policy. Now, ultimately they might look back and say, "That was the right thing to do," but particularly controversial measures tend to be controversial for a reason.

    You've worked with many different politicians over time. How do you reconcile the needs of one candidate with the needs of the entire party?

    Each political party is an expression of a large group of individual actors writing their own scripts. Generally, because our parties are, roughly, one center-left and the other center-right, the scripts tend to be similar.