科技行业新年处境堪忧

    随着全球各大公司纷纷完成2013年的预算方案，我们发现，各公司的预算均非常保守，这种情况在硅谷之前的几十年时间里非常罕见。虽然许多开支预测均高于2012年，但这在很大程度上是因为2012年科技开支非常惨淡。换言之，全球科技企业将迎来一种新的常态。

    每年，各大研究公司都会对信息与技术高管进行调查，了解他们对于新技术投入的预测。对于向其他公司销售产品与服务的软硬件公司来说，这些调查结果通常具有风向标的意义。

    多年以来，在低迷的全球经济背景下，面向消费市场的科技公司表现远远优于面向企业市场的同行。比如，谷歌（Google）与苹果（Apple）等公司的收入和利润增长依然强劲，而IBM和微软（Microsoft）等老牌公司则陷入增长困境。

    例如，按照谷歌2012年的年报，它的收入增长幅度预计将达到43%，而苹果公司上一财年的总收入则增长了45%。与此相反，分析人士预测，微软年增长率约为9%；而在IBM本月即将公布的报告中，分析师预测其收入可能会减少2%。

    自2009年以来，受到经济衰退的影响，2012年或许是商务科技最为艰难的一年。根据科技研究公司高德纳（Gartner）与弗雷斯特（Forrester）的计算结果，截至2012年底，各大公司的开支仅比2011年增加了1.2%，增速非常缓慢。最初，两家公司一直预测，2012年公司开支增长幅度应该接近5%。

    本月早些时候，两家公司分别发布了2013年的预测报告。高德纳预计，今年IT开支将增加4.2%，比之前3.8%的预测有所提高。而弗雷斯特的预测结果更为乐观，其预测IT开支将增加5.4%。但这些增长很大程度上是由于货币波动造成的。按美元计算，高德纳预测的涨幅为3.9%，而弗雷斯特预测的涨幅则为3.3%。

    华尔街的其他研究人员则并没有这么乐观。高盛（Goldman Sachs）11月公布的一份调查预测，美国IT开支将增加3%。而摩根大通（ JP Morgan）的一份报告则在科技行业引起轩然大波。它预测全球IT增长率仅有1.7%，远远低于2.4%的全球GDP增长率。

    当然，高德纳与弗雷斯特发布报告的时间晚于华尔街，而且当时围绕财政悬崖的各种不确定因素也开始日渐明朗。这些不确定因素一度使许多公司担心，预算谈判可能将美国经济拖入又一轮衰退，因此对如何分配资金也尤为谨慎。不过，摩根大通似乎打算一直坚持其看跌的预测。周一，分析师马克•莫斯科维奇便根据1.7%的增长预测，将IBM和电子设备制造商EMC公司的评级从“超配”下调为“均配”。

    由于各大公司缩减IT预算，许多大型科技公司的股票在近几年表现不佳。2012年，英特尔（Intel）、微软、IBM和惠普（Hewlett-Packard）在股市的表现均落后于标准普尔500指数（S&P 500，增长13%），且其市盈率也远远低于大盘（目前为17倍）。

    As companies around the globe put the final touches on their 2013 budget plans, they are applying a modesty that was rare during earlier decades of Silicon Valley growth. And while many forecasts are calling for stronger spending than we saw in 2012, that's mostly because 2012 was a particularly dismal year for tech spending. In other words, the new normal has taken over the world of enterprise tech.

    Every year, research firms survey information and technology executives to come up with their best guesses at how much money will be spent on new technology. The surveys are regarded as bellwethers for hardware and software companies that sell the bulk of their products and services to other corporations.

    For several years, tech companies that rely more on consumers have weathered the weak global economy better than their peers in the enterprise sector. While companies like Google (GOOG)and Apple (AAPL) have seen strong revenue and profit growth, stalwarts like IBM (IBM) and Microsoft (MSFT) have struggled to eke out any growth.

    Google, for example, is expected to see its revenue grow 43% when it reports 2012 earnings, while Apple posted 45% growth in its last fiscal year. Microsoft, by contrast, is expected by analysts to see 9% annual growth, while analysts are bracing for a 2% decline in revenue when IBM reports revenue this month.

    But 2012 may have been the toughest year for business technology since 2009, in the depths of the Great Recession. Tech-research firms Gartner and Forrester both calculated that when all was said and done in 2012, companies ended up spending only 1.2% more than they did in 2011, an anemic rate at best. Initially, both firms had been calling for growth closer to 5% for 2012.

    Earlier this month, the two firms issued reports with their forecasts for 2013. Gartner is looking for IT spending to increase by 4.2% this year, a few notches up from its previous forecast of 3.8% growth. Forrester is projecting an even cheerier 5.4% gain. But much of these increases are due to currency fluctuations. In dollar terms, Gartner expects a 3.9% rise and Forrester a 3.3% rise.

    Other researchers at Wall Street firms are expecting even slower growth. A survey from Goldman Sachs released in November forecast 3% growth in U.S. IT spending. A second report from JP Morgan sent some shock waves through the tech sector when projected global IT growth of just of just 1.7%—below the global GDP growth rate of 2.4%.

    To be sure, the Gartner and Forrester reports came several weeks after the Wall Street reports and at a time when much of the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff was beginning to clear up. That uncertainty had left many companies especially cautious about allocating money if U.S. budget negotiations pushed the economy into another recession. But JP Morgan seems to be standing by its bearish forecast. On Monday, analyst Mark Moskowitz cut his ratings on IBM and EMC (EMC) to Neutral from Overweight, citing the 1.7% growth estimate.

    The stocks of several large tech companies have had a rough time in recent years, thanks to the penny-pinching in IT budgets. Intel (INTC), Microsoft, IBM and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) all underperformed the S&P 500's 13% gain in 2012. And have been trading well below that index's price-earnings ratio, which currently stands at 17.