苹果面临重蹈覆辙的风险

    或许iPhone手机需求疲软仅仅是一种表面症状。最近几天，关于低价iPhone手机的种种传闻其实掩盖了这家全球最具影响力的电子设备制造商所面临的更严重的问题：让开发者和外围设备制造商与它的合作愈加困难，苹果（Apple）似乎正在走回二十年前的老路。与此同时，苹果对其产品依然采取高定价策略，影响了它的产品在发展中市场的销售表现。苹果要想保持市场领先地位，首席执行官蒂姆•库克必须尽快放手。

    几乎所有大型科技公司都会到拉斯维加斯参加消费电子产品展（Consumer Electronics Show），这已经成为一种潮流。当然，苹果除外。过去二十年中，苹果从未参加过大型展会，而是会出席MacWorld大会。不过，如今连MacWorld也看不到苹果的影子了，它更愿意根据自己的安排发布新产品。iPhone热潮如火如荼的时候，苹果保持超然的姿态，自然是无可厚非。毕竟iPhone确实是一款革命性的产品，能够带来巨大的利润。而且iTunes音乐和娱乐门户网站也成为苹果的摇钱树，最终不仅使唱片公司接受了数字音乐空间，而且第一次为消费者提供了一种简单、方便的购买数字媒体的方式。而随着“应用程序”的出现，苹果再次创建了一个完整的生态系统。

    通过对iTunes和应用商店网站的控制，苹果将这个全新的移动世界掌控在自己手中。它利用这种控制，按照自己的意愿塑造这个市场，迫使开发商和外围设备制造商迎合公司的所有需求。如果你希望在苹果应用商店中推出自己的应用程序，或者希望在iTunes中推出自己的歌曲，就必须经过一个漫长繁琐的过程，等待苹果总部确认你的作品是否符合它所有的标准。苹果对收费电子移动下载空间的掌控带来了巨大的利润。去年，公司的现金余额创纪录的达到约1,000亿美元。面对巨额利润，苹果甚至都不知该如何来处理这些钱。

    不过，如果你认为苹果能继续支配不断壮大的智能手机市场，那就太天真了。它在智能手机市场的份额已经从去年年初的23%减少到第三季度的14.6%。本周，有消息称iPhone 5显示屏订单比原定数量减少了一半，表明销售状况不佳。结果，苹果公司股票大幅跳水，跌至11个月来的最低点。报告来源于负责为苹果组装iPhone手机的亚洲地区。（对此苹果没有发表评论。）

    当然，苹果肯定不会破产，而且iPhone 5的表现不可谓不成功——在上市销售前24个小时便售出200万台，创下历史记录。但iPhone最近乏善可陈的表现，以及关于需求疲软的传闻，让过去几年豪赌苹果的投资者不由得开始担忧。

    Potentially weak iPhone demand is just a symptom. The backand forth in recent days about a cheaper iPhone belies what may be a much larger problem for the world's dominant gadget maker: Apple seems to be repeating a mistake it made nearly two decades ago by making it difficult for developers and peripheral makers to work with the company. At the same time, Apple is maintaining a premium price for its products, hurting adoption in developing markets. A radical departure by chief executive Tim Cook is needed fast if Apple is going to stay on top.

    All the big names in tech were at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in some fashion—except, of course, for Apple (AAPL). For the past two decades, it has eschewed the mega conference, participating in MacWorld instead. Now, Apple isn't even showing up at MacWorld, preferring to unveil its new products on its own schedule. At the height of the iPhone craze a few years ago it was understandable that Apple could get away with maintaining such an aloof stance. The iPhone was truly a revolutionary product with massive margins. Apple's iTunes music and entertainment portal was a cash cow, finally bringing the record companies to terms with the digital music space and giving consumers a simple and easy way to purchase digital media for the first time. And with the advent of "apps," Apple once again created an entire ecosystem.

    Apple's control of the iTunes and app store portals gave it total control over this new mobile world. It used that control to shape the market in its image, forcing developers and peripheral makers to jump and bend to the company's every desire. If you wanted your application in Apple's App Store or if you wanted your song on iTunes, you had to go through a long and laborious process with Apple HQ to make sure everything was up to their standards. Apple's domination of the paid electronic mobile download space translated into mega profits, which last year culminated in the company posting a cash balance of around $100 billion. Apple was making so much money it literally had no idea what to do with it.

    But it is naive to think that Apple could continue to dominate the growing market for smartphones. The company has seen its market share in the smartphone space fall from 23% at the start of last year to 14.6% by the third quarter. Apple's stock took a major dive this week, falling at one point to an 11-month low, on reports that orders for its iPhone 5 display had been cut in half from previously planned levels, noting that sales have not been up to snuff. The reports came out of Asia where Apple's iPhone is assembled. (Apple did not respond to request for comment for this story.)

    To be sure, Apple isn't going bankrupt and the iPhone 5 isn't a dud—it sold a record 2 million copies in the first 24 hours it went on sale. But the iPhone's recently lackluster track record, combined with this talk of weak demand, is of major concern to investors who have bet big on Apple in the last few years.