中国左右全球奢侈品市场未来？

    奢侈品市场是否会褪去浮华？普拉达（Prada）、路易威登集团【LVMH，旗下拥有路易威登（Louis Vitton）、汤玛仕•品客（Thomas Pink）、凯歌香槟（Veuve Clicquot）等品牌）和历峰集团（Richemont，旗下拥有卡地亚（Cartier）品牌】等公司的股票看上去就像这些公司销售的奢侈品一样光彩照人。过去几年，在中国消费者的带动下，这些公司的股票翻了近一番。但如今，中国消费者的购买热潮似乎正在退去，而它可能影响奢侈品公司的股票表现。

    奢侈品行业股票通常被视为防御性投资产品。即便是在经济衰退期间，有钱人也会购买昂贵的手提包和金灿灿的腕表。但在过去几年，奢侈品公司开始将目标扩大到“引领型买家”——即年收入在30,000美元至100,000美元之间的群体。虽然中产阶级每次购买的花费远不及真正的富豪，但渴望变成富人的人却要多得多。这便是所谓的积少成多。

    这些人便成为奢侈品牌有利可图的全新消费群体，尤其是在中产阶级迅速壮大的中国。近期，据高盛（Goldman Sachs）估算，中产阶级约占全球奢侈品消费人群的38%。而来自中国的奢侈品消费开支更高，人均消费782美元，年均消费241美元。中国潜在的中产阶级消费市场从1995年的100万人已经扩大到今天的3,700万人。而据高盛预测，至2025年，这个市场将增长到2.56亿人，复合年增长率为14.1%。

    奢侈品公司的股票也反应了这个增长趋势。自2011年秋，普拉达公司股票上涨超过140%，历峰集团股票的涨幅也接近75%。彭博欧洲奢侈品指数（Bloomberg European Luxury Goods Index）总体涨幅超过50%，其中包括托德斯（Tod's）和萨瓦尔多•菲拉格慕（Salvatore Ferragamo）等其他公司的股票。而同期道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average）涨幅约为30%。

    然而，有批评家基于多个理由质疑这种增长能否持续。首先，中国房地产市场的繁荣造就了一大批富人。但中国执行的是非常严格的抵押贷款制度，例如个人无追索权贷款和高首付比例等。过去几年，这些规定限制了买家，造成房地产市场供大于求。房地产市场逐渐衰弱，可能削弱中国中产阶级的购买力。

    虽然到目前为止，奢侈品市场减速的迹象尚不明显，但瑞士联合银行（UBS）已经发出了警告。中国经济学家王涛（音译）在2011年3月的一份报告中指出：“鉴于房地产与建筑行业的庞大规模，及其在推动经济增长中的重要作用，只要因政策或资产偏好发生变化导致房地产需求‘退热’，就都有可能导致中国总体经济硬着陆。”

    此外还有其他一些更为复杂的因素。在中国，有人购买奢侈品作为礼物，向地方官员换取房地产项目。而中国政府正在下大力气减少“送礼”行为。而且，零售商还不得不应付其他一些“中国特色”。例如，与日本不同，中国奢侈品购买者以男性为主，这种传统由来已久。虽然有人成这种状况正在发生变化，但男性消费者对产品的忠诚度不如女性，或者说，他们不会“盲目”消费。

    Is the glitz about to come off the luxury market? Stocks of companies like Prada, LVMH (owner of Louis Vuitton, Thomas Pink, Veuve Clicquot) and Richemont (owner of Cartier) look like they are costing some bling. Chinese consumers have helped some of them nearly double over the last couple of years. But some Chinese buyers look set to take a break, and this could hurt stock prices.

    Luxury stocks are often thought of as a defensive investment. Wealthy people buy fancy handbags and glittery watches even during a recession. But over the past several years, luxury companies branched out by targeting"aspirational buyers" -- those with income between $30,000 and $100,000 a year. Though the middle class hardly spends as much per purchase, there are simply more aspiring rich than actual rich. The masses add up to quite a lot.

    This has been a lucrative new group for luxury brands, particularly in China where there is now a burgeoning middle class. Middle class accounts for 38% of global luxury goods spending, according to recent estimates from Goldman Sachs. These purchasers in China spend more too, $782 on average versus $241 annually. China's potential market for middle class buyers has gone from 1 million people in 1995 to 37 million today. Goldman expects it to grow to 256 million in 2025, at a CAGR of 14.1%.

    Stocks have reflected this growth. Prada (PRDSY) is up more than 140% since fall 2011. Richemont is up nearly 75%. Overall the Bloomberg European Luxury Goods Index, which includes other stocks like Tod's and Salvatore Ferragamo, is up more than 50%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen about 30% over the same period.

    But critics question if the growth can continue, for several reasons. First, China's housing boom has helped line some pockets. But the country has more stringent mortgage restrictions, such as recourse loans for individuals and high down payments. These stipulations have curtailed buyers over the past few years, creating an oversupply of building. Any decline in this market could chip away at the buying power of some middle-class Chinese.

    That slowdown isn't showing yet, but UBS has been warning about its risks for a while. "Given the sheer size of the property and construction sector and its heavy role in driving growth, even just having housing demand 'fade away' because of changes in policy or asset preferences could already lead to a hard landing of the overall economy," said China economist Tao Wang in a March 2011 report.

    There are other complications as well. Some people were buying luxury products as presents for local officials in exchange for rights to build. But the Chinese government is making strides to cut down on the practice of "gifting." And retailers have to grapple with other idiosyncrasies. For example, unlike in Japan, historically Chinese luxury goods buyers are mostly men. Though some say this is changing, men may not be quite as loyal -- or spontaneous -- customers.