达沃斯愁云未散

    上周，全球商界和政界领导人齐聚达沃斯，出席今年的世界经济论坛，主题为——“为持久发展注入活力”(Resilient Dynamism)。不过，没人会把这个刻意乐观的主题当真。当前时世困顿：世界经济顶多算得上盘整，前方可能还有更多难以预料的艰险——从社会动荡到致命细菌，再到毁灭性的自然灾害(近年来，自然灾害发生的频率和造成的损失都呈现上升态势)，不一而足。

    在达沃斯小镇普罗姆纳街上，每晚还能看到些社交聚会举行真是件幸事。与会者的神经都绷得太紧了，对话和研究报告里无不是混乱、脆弱等辞令。一些日常的担忧，像华盛顿的政治斗争、政府负债、税负上升，甚至是欧元区解体的前景，都已退居其次。

    最先挑起这股忧虑情绪的，是上周二晚间普华永道(PriceWaterhouseCoopers)全球董事长戴瑞礼公布的普华永道对全球68个国家1,330位首席执行官的年度调查结果。调查显示，只有36%的受访者“非常有信心”看到2013年收入强劲增长，低于2012年的40%，也低于2011年美国经济衰退后令人吃惊的48%。

    考虑到总体经济环境，这样的结果也不是很令人意外。正如报告所指，目前欧元区仍陷于衰退，美国经济预计将只有2.2%的增幅(失业率保持高位)，金砖四国的经济增速可能放缓。至于经济增长预期，CEO们没有像去年那么悲观，去年有近半的受访者担心全球经济可能出现负增长，今年大多数人预计2013年全球经济增长将持平。

    调查还显示，企业可能会潜心培育本地市场的增长(特别是美国公司，本地市场增长被视为2013年主要的增长动力)和提高客户忠诚度。另一项策略是“提高灵活性”，潜台词无疑是可能会有不好的意外出现，需要做好准备。

    CEO们非常谨慎，正如这项研究指出，过去30年金融危机爆发的次数已超过了过去350年的总和，从当前的主权债务危机到之前为美国为首的经济衰退，再到90年代的俄罗斯和亚洲危机。

    同样呈现上升的还有自然灾害。自然灾害的数量和强度均呈现加速上升。2011年日本海啸造成的损失和危害占据榜首，其次是2005年的卡特里娜飓风、2008年的中国大地震和去年的桑迪飓风(在新泽西州和纽约州沿海造成严重损毁)。

    虽然眼下围绕“中国经济放缓对全球经济构成拖累”的种种讨论正热，但在调查中，CEO们更担心的是本国社会动荡、美国经济衰退、毁灭性的网络攻击、自然灾害、欧元区解体以及流行性疫情(降序排列)等风险。

    World business and government leaders are gathering here for this year's World Economic Forum meeting -- titled "resilient dynamism." But no one is fooled by the consciously upbeat title. These are sour times, with the global economy moving sideways at best, and flocks of black swans swimming on the horizon – from threats of social unrest to killer bacteria to deadly natural disasters that appear to be growing in frequency and cost.

    It's a good the town's Promenade hums with well-lubed parties every night because nerves are frayed, with words like disruption and fragilitydominating the conversation and research, making the usual concerns -- like Washington's political wars, government debt, rising tax burdens, even the prospect of a Eurozone breakup --look like mere nuisance costs.

    PriceWaterhouseCoopers International Chair Dennis Nally started setting the dark mood Tuesday night with the release of his company's annual survey of 1,330 CEOs in 68 countries showing that only 36% are "very confident" of seeing strong revenue growth in 2013—compared to 40% last year and a (by comparison) positively giddy 48% in post-U.S. recession 2011.

    That's not too surprising given an economic environment where the Eurozone is stuck in recession, the U.S. economy is predicted to grow at a paltry 2.2% (keeping American unemployment rates high) and the BRIC countries are facing a slow down, as the report notes. While CEOs aren't as pessimistic as last year – when nearly half of those surveyed feared a global contraction—most expect flat global growth in 2013.

    The survey shows companies hunkering down, focusing on building growth in their own markets (especially U.S. companies, where local market expansion is the primary 2013 growth driver), and building customer loyalty. The other strategy: "A shift to resilience" – code for preparing for nasty surprises.

    CEOs are hyper-conscious that, as the study notes, there have been more financial crises in the past 30 years -- from today's sovereign debt crisis in Europe to yesterday's U.S.-led recession to the Russia and Asia crises of the '90s -- than the preceding 350 years taken together.

    The same holds for natural disasters, which are coming at an increasingly fast and furious rate. Japan's 2011 tsunami tops the cost and destruction list, followed by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the 2008 China earthquake and last year's Hurricane Sandy, which devastated the coasts of New Jersey and New York.

    For all the talk about China's economic slowdown producing a drag on the global economy, the CEOs surveyed were far more worried about social unrest in their own countries, the prospect of a U.S. recession, crippling cyber attacks, natural disasters, a Eurozone breakup and health pandemics (in that order).