穿在身上的技术革命

    当前十年内，科技战争的关键将在于我们穿戴的物品。科技已经从我们的背包和口袋里爬出，以可穿戴的形式攀上了我们的身体。越来越多的小玩意儿在我们的手腕、脖子、耳朵和眼睛上安家。这些物件——和它们所推动的智能服务浪潮——将会促使医疗、健身、通讯和许多其他领域产生革命性的变化。

    创业公司和成熟品牌推出的一系列穿戴式产品让人们欢欣鼓舞，跃跃欲试。耐克（Nike）正在大力推行它的FuelBand手环，热炒的Pebble智能手表终于上市，而谷歌（Google）的智能眼镜Google Glass也引起了巨大轰动。GoPro的一系列穿戴式录像机在极限运动领域激起了热潮。大众融资平台Kickstarter和Indiegogo上充斥着穿戴式产品的筹资信息。还有谣言称苹果（Apple）也将发布自己的穿戴式设备，使得关于该领域即将爆炸式增长的预测愈演愈烈。

    但是当科技用于我们的身体，甚至在某种程度上融入身体时，新的挑战也随之来临——其中许多并不仅仅关乎科技，而是关乎人类。弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester）的高级分析员萨拉•罗特曼•艾普斯在她最近的报告《智能身体，智能世界》（Smart Body, Smart World）中评论称：“产品策略师必须秉持以人为本的设计理念——人类，而不是设备，才是创新的核心。”

    我们穿戴在身的科技产品必须能经得起磨损，必须适合我们的生活方式和习惯，还必须符合我们的时尚审美观。而更重要的是，它还必须能与我们轻松互动，从而轻松利用其价值。我们学习如何使用机器的模式现在得反过来了——机器需要学习如何与我们共处。

    新兴参与者。在每场争夺市场霸主地位的战役中，初创公司都有可能从籍籍无名一跃而成行业领袖，而可穿戴科技行业目前就在寻找吸引人的模式和一统天下的设计理念。微软（Microsoft）在台式机领域取得了胜利，而安卓（Android）和苹果iOS则主导了移动产品领域。但是没人能保证如今的科技巨头同样会统治可穿戴科技领域——我们从克莱顿•克里斯坦森的《创新者的窘境》（The Innovator's Dilemma）中可以知道，一个领域的创新者在接下来的创新浪潮中通常难以取得成功。

    这个领域仍在日趋壮大，断言谁是赢家尚为之过早，不过已经有一些公司展现出光明前景。

    • 运动追踪器Misfit Shine大小仅为常规的四分之一，典雅简约是其核心特色。它还可以灵活运用于各种不同的活动和场合。

    • Withings的体重计巧妙地利用了一项已有的日常活动——称体重——而不是尝试植入全新的数码活动。

    • Fjord设计的智能手机应用Macaw可以同时从许多来源收集数据，用户可以了解他们关注的多项事物的概况。

    • 行业先驱FitBit长期以来以可靠准确的数据出名，这是信赖的基础。

    • 以“一目了然”和“解放双手”为导向的优秀设计师：智能手表先驱MataWatch。

    在可穿戴技术领域，尤其需要坚持以人为本的设计理念，因为这些设备和服务都非常私人化。

    The key tech battle of the current decade will be about things we wear. Technology is crawling out of our bags and pockets and onto our bodies in the form of wearables. An increasing number of gadgets are finding their homes on our wrists, necks, ears and eyes. These objects – and the smart services they give rise to – will help revolutionize domains like healthcare, fitness, communication, and much more.

    A range of wearable products from startups and established brands are inspiring and intriguing people. Nike (NKE) is heavily promoting its FuelBand, the much-hyped Pebble smart watch is finally shipping, and Google (GOOG) Glass is creating a lot of buzz. The GoPro range of wearable video recorders has become a huge hit in adventure sports. Crowdfunding services Kickstarter and Indiegogo are flooded with wearable product pitches. Rumors that Apple (AAPL) is set to unveil its own wearable device are only adding to predictions that the category is set to explode.

    But as technology meets and to some extent fuses with our bodies, new challenges arise – and many of them are not merely about technology; they are about people. As Senior Forrester (FORR) Analyst Sarah Rotman Epps observes in her recent report Smart Body, Smart World, "product strategists must embrace a human-centric approach to design — the person is the focus of innovation, not the device."

    Technology that we wear must be designed to withstand wear and tear; it must fit in with our lifestyles and habits in natural ways, and must match our sense of style. Above everything, it must be easy to interact with and get value from. Instead of us learning how to interact with machines, it will now be the reverse – machines need to learn how to work with us.

    Emerging players. In each major battle for dominance, new companies can rise from irrelevance to category leadership, and the wearable paradigm is currently searching for winning models and dominant designs. Microsoft (MSFT) won the battle of the desktop era, and Android and iOS are the dominant drivers of the mobility era. But there's no guarantee that today's major technology brands will be the ones to also rule the wearable space – as we've learned from Clayton Christensen's The Innovator's Dilemma, innovators of one era or category often struggle to also achieve success during following waves of innovation.

    While the domain is still only gathering momentum and while it's too early to declare a winner, there are some companies with promising approaches.

    • Elegance and simplicity are core attributes of the quarter-sized activity tracker Misfit Shine, yet it can be used flexibly for several different activities and situations.

    • Scales by Withings piggyback cleverly on an existing daily ritual – weighing oneself – rather than trying to introduce completely new digital rituals.

    • The Fjord-designed smartphone app Macaw aggregates data from several sources in one experience, allowing users to get an overview of various things they track.

    • Category pioneers FitBit have long been known for reliable and accurate data, which is a foundation for trust.

    • Excellent design drivers around glanceability and "hands freedom" guide smart watch pioneers MetaWatch.

    Especially in the wearable category, it's imperative to design around people, because your relationships with these devices and services will be quite personal.