交友网站的背后算法玄机

    假设你正在寻找真爱，再假设你正好喜欢讽刺小报《洋葱报》（The Onion）。你可能会在洋葱报的官网TheOnion.com的约会网站上发布自己的个人信息。这家媒体的标题往往惊世骇俗，比如什么《小猫咪整天就想着杀人》，再比如，《研究显示宝宝都是脑残》等。自然，你认为自己将和同样喜欢这个刊物的人交上朋友。可是，你的个人资料却被纳入了一个更大的数据库——里面一共有1,422,000个用户。结果系统把你和另一个寻求交友服务的单身人士配上对了，只不过对方是在另一个网站——Salon.com——上注册的。

    欢迎来到奇特的、互联互通的在线交友世界。这样的网站成百上千，其中很多都拥有极其特定的目标用户群。有些网站专门服务于热衷讽刺作品的人群，有些则专门针对僵尸爱好者、客观主义者、或者“鲻鱼头”生活方式者（mullet life-style，一种前额及两侧短发，脑后长发的发型所代表的生活方式，1960年代开始在影视作品中出现，风行至今——译注）。如果一个行业观察者认为这个飞速发展的行业正变得日益碎片化，他的观点不无道理。然而实际情况恰恰相反——事实上，这个行业正日益由越来越少的公司控制着越来越大的市场份额。

    比如，《洋葱报》和Salon的交友网站都是由一家叫FastCupid的公司运作的。而这家公司是交友网络公司（FriendFinder Network）的子公司。而交友网络曾名为“阁楼媒体集团”（ Penthouse Media Group），运作着4万多家网站（没错，就是那个色情媒体巨擘“阁楼”）。所以，突然之间你会发现，你自认为通过《洋葱报》登陆的小众交友社区实际上规模要大得多。而这并不表示你们的兴趣不会有交集。

    可以肯定的是，交友网络公司不会把下属各家品牌网站上的个人资料全部混合到一起（针对这个问题，该公司没有作出回应）。这样做是为了实现最优结果，因为来自单身基督徒交友网站BigChurch.com的用户可能就没法和来自所谓“世界最大捆绑虐恋（BDSM，一种对特殊性虐待的偏好——译注）社区” Bondage.com的用户处得来。很多成熟的在线交友网站都会避免这种乱点鸳鸯谱的做法，但在英国，这种做法却是常见，可以算是一种标准行为。而这只是该行业快速整合的一个后果而已。

    IBISWorld公司的一项研究表明，目前四大公司控制着总规模高达12.2亿美元的在线交友市场77%的份额。与五年前相比，这个增幅可谓惊人，并且很可能会继续攀升。随着美国的在线交友市场发展陷入停滞——去年收入仅增长3.5%——初创公司发现要想挤进这个市场正变得日益困难，而那些二线公司正努力争取能够继续盈利。

    Let's say you're looking for love. Let's also say you love the satirical newspaper The Onion. You might decide to make a profile on TheOnion.com dating site. Naturally, you assume that you'll be connected to other lovers of the publication known for headlines such as "Kitten Thinks of Nothing But Murder All Day" and "Study Reveals Babies Are Stupid." Instead, your profile is entered into a much larger database -- consisting of some 1,422,000 users -- and you're paired up with another single who signed for the same service, but through another site, Salon.com.

    Welcome to the weird, interconnected world of online dating. There are thousands of sites out there, many with an incredible degree of specificity in their target audience. There are sites for satire enthusiasts, of course, but also for zombie-lovers, objectivists, and people living the mullet life-style. An observer could be forgiven for thinking that the fast-growing industry is becoming increasingly fragmented. But the reality is exactly the opposite. A smaller and smaller number of companies are controlling a greater and greater share of the market.

    For instance, the personals sites for The Onion and Salon are both powered by a service called FastCupid. That company is a property of FriendFinder Network. FriendFinder Network, formerly called Penthouse Media Group, operates more than 40,000 sites. (Yes, it's that Penthouse.) Suddenly, the niche community you thought you were tapping into by signing up with The Onion Dating, turns out to be much larger. Which isn't to say your interests will not overlap.

    To be sure, FriendFinder likely does not mix together all the profiles of all its branded sites. (The company did not return calls for comment.) That's probably for the best, because people from one property, BigChurch.com for Christian singles for example, may not get along with those from another, say, Bondage.com, "the world's largest BDSM community." Many established online dating operators eschew the practice altogether, but it's fairly common, particularly in the U.K. where it's standard practice. And it's just one result of the fast consolidation in the industry.

    Today, four companies control 77% of the $1.22 billion online dating market, according to research from IBISWorld. That's up substantially from five years ago and is likely to climb higher. With the market for online dating stagnating in the U.S. -- revenue grew just 3.5% last year -- startups are finding it increasingly difficult to break into the space, and second-tier players are struggling to stay profitable.