移动业务将迎来高速增长时代

    信号灯变绿后，我们前面的那辆车还停着不走，身边的朋友叹了口气说：“我是不会只顾着智能手机而忘记交通信号灯的。”果然，那位驾驶员埋头向下，似乎是在庄严地祈祷，不过更可能是在玩短信/地图/音乐应用。这个小小的场景彰显了移动设备对人们日常生活的影响。

    Facebook或Twitter进入我们的生活之前，我们在排队等候结账之前会做些什么来打发时间？在天气应用程序问世以前，我们如何查询天气预报以便在雨天不下雨的空隙遛狗？以前没有手持终端即时访问网页的情况下，我们怎么解决围绕电影和体育等琐事的争论？如今要依靠短信或点评网站Yammer这样的网络来处理的紧急工作任务以前是怎么做的呢？

    现在看来，那些日子似乎很遥远，但对于大多数人来说，这其实也就是一两年的光景。但随着移动设备变得更加强大、LTE网络变得更快，应用程序设计变得更富有创造性，我们的生活方式每个季度似乎都经历着一系列新的、微妙的变化。我们在看电视节目的时候通过手机或平板电脑和朋友互动。我们收听流媒体音乐服务Spotify或RDIO的同时，眼睁睁看着书架上的CD落满灰尘。我们发现有很多工作现在可以在平板电脑上完成，而无需笔记本电脑。

    虽然所有这些变化都有点道听途说的色彩，但移动数据增长方面的数据能够提供佐证。瑞典电信巨头爱立信（Ericsson）上周发布的一份报告显示，过去两年数据网络上的移动流量已经翻番。思科（Cisco）本月早些时候发布的一份更综合的报告显示，去年全球数据网络流量增长了70%。思科提供的一组对比数据显示了移动领域的规模增长：2012年移动数据网络上的流量为 885拍字节，较2000年全球互联网总流量高出近12倍。2000年正是互联网腾飞的时候。

    而这仅仅只是个开始。未来五年，无线数据流量将继续以每年66%的增速增长。它意味着，到2017年，月度移动数据流量将达到每月11.2艾字节，是目前的13倍。这份报告中的其它数据彰显了如今移动世界的巨大规模以及未来它将以多迅猛的速度继续扩大。去年，全球大约有43亿人拥有移动设备，五年后，这个数字将再增长近10亿人。

    智能手机（81%）数据流量年增速将显著提高，平板电脑（113%）数据流量年增速还要更上一层楼。不过，智能手机将继续成为移动网络数据的最大“食客”：2012年，移动手机占无线网络连接设备总数的16%、无线网络总流量的44%。2017年，移动手机将占无线网络连接设备总数的27%，并消耗68%的无线网络数据。

    在这些数字背后有几点需要警惕。虽然思科的移动数据年度报告可能会被广泛引用，但它也存在一些争议（比如，这份报告是否能够佐证频谱危机可能迫在眉睫的担忧）。历史经验表明，科技领域的增长预测最多也不过是有一定依据的猜测，往往会因不可预见的变化而失去准星。更重要的是，思科和爱立信的数据追踪的只是无线网络上的流量，而许多人已经学会尽可能通过WiFi网络使用自己的平板电脑和智能手机，以确保流量不超出美国电话电报公司（AT&Ţ）和威瑞森（Verizon）较为低级别的无线数据套餐的上限。

    "I remember traffic lights before smartphones," sighed a friend as we sat in traffic behind a car that remained still after the light had turned green. Sure enough, the driver's head was tilted downward as if lost in solemn prayer -- or, more likely, a texting/map/music app -- a small illustration of how mobile devices have changed everyday life.

    What did we use to do to kill time in slow-moving checkout lines before we had Facebook (FB) or Twitter to distract us? How did we, before we had weather apps, check the forecast for breaks in the rain to walk the dog? How did we settle bar arguments on film and sports trivia without instant access to the web in our hands? How did all the urgent work tasks handled in text messages or networks like Yammer (MSFT) ever get accomplished?

    Those days seem distant now, but for most it's only been a couple of years. And yet each quarter seems to bring a series of new, subtle changes to our lifestyles as mobile devices grow more powerful, LTE networks become speedier and apps themselves more creative in design. We socialize with phones or tablets as we watch TV programs. We watch our shelves of CDs gather dust as we tune into Spotify or Rdio. We discover how much work can, after all, be accomplished on a tablet instead of a laptop.

    All of these changes are anecdotal, but the numbers on mobile-data growth back them up. A report from Swedish telecom giant Ericsson (ERIXF) this week showed that mobile traffic on data networks has been doubling for the past two years. In a more comprehensive report, Cisco (CSCO) said earlier this month that global traffic on data networks grew by 70% last year. Cisco offered a comparison that suggests how big mobile has become: The traffic on mobile data networks in 2012 -- 885 petabytes -- was nearly 12 times greater than total Internet traffic around the world in 2000, back when the web was taking off.

    And that's just the start. Wireless data traffic will continue to grow 66% a year for the next five years. That means, by 2017, monthly mobile data traffic will reach 11.2 exabytes per month, or 13 times what it is right now. Other data points in the report underscore how big the mobile world has become and how quickly it will grow to be much, much bigger. Last year, some 4.3 billion people around the world had mobile devices, a population that will grow by close to a billion in five years.

    Annual growth in data traffic will be significantly higher on smartphones (81%) and even higher on tablets (113%). However, smartphones will continue to be the biggest eaters of mobile-network data: In 2012, they made up 16% of devices connected to wireless networks and 44% of total traffic. In 2017, they will be 27% of connected devices and consume 68% of data.

    These numbers come with a few caveats. Cisco's annual report on mobile data may be widely referenced, but it is also the subject of some controversy (over whether it supports concerns of a looming spectrum crunch). And as hindsight regularly shows, growth projections in tech are at best an educated guess and are often foiled by unforeseen changes. What's more, Cisco and Ericsson's numbers only track traffic on wireless networks, whereas many people have learned to use their tablets and smartphones on WiFi networks whenever they can to stay within the lower tiers of costly wireless-data plans from AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ).