苹果和谷歌运势大逆转

    2012年7月份，美国总统选举步入高潮，伦敦奥运会即将开幕，而大多数人都认为苹果(Apple)股价涨到1,000美元只是一个时间问题。

    与此同时，谷歌（Google）股票可谓“虚度光阴”。在2009年股价翻倍之后，谷歌股票在随后三年半的时间里一直徘徊在600美元上下。去年7月份，苹果股价也处于600美元左右，但iPhone 5即将推出，而乔布斯缔造的苹果公司似乎正一帆风顺。

    哦，自那以后，情势发生了多大的变化啊。 自去年7月中旬以来，苹果股价已经下跌了29％。而谷歌呢？它的股价上涨了46％，突破了800美元大关，而苹果却趴在424美元附近。苹果正在与投资者就是否增加派发股息的问题进行争斗，而谷歌股票则在欢快上涨。

    近几个月以来，人们对于苹果股价下跌展开了许多讨论，而相对而言，对于谷歌相应的上涨却较少讨论。但两者之间的这个差异可归结为这点：苹果创造了硅谷历史上科技公司业绩增长最辉煌的一个阶段，但现在人们越来越倾向于认为，这个阶段已经结束，而谷歌可能正处于这样一个阶段的开始。

    这就是谷歌在连续两个季度获得不俗业绩——而且有更多迹象表明该公司正在制定长期发展计划——之后给人留下的新形象。“展望未来一二十年的消费科技领域，我们认为谷歌无疑是占据最佳优势的公司，”投资银行派杰（Piper Jaffray）颇具影响力的科技产业分析师吉恩•蒙斯特写道。

    蒙斯特话中指的并不是搜索或其他广告业务（这部分业务在谷歌的营收中仍占据87％的份额），而是指那些还没有投入市场的新开发项目，比如谷歌眼镜和无人驾驶汽车——他称后者为谷歌“未来十年最大的机遇之一。”

    与此相比，苹果看到自己在智能手机和平板电脑领域的市场份额正在随着时间的推移而逐渐缩水，同时那些低利润、低成本、采用安卓移动操作系统的竞争对手则提高了产品的销量，而且苹果也在推出迷你iPad等自己的低利润产品予以反击。

    虽然苹果素来以守口如瓶著称，但我们知道，它正在开发自己的几款新产品——有些可能会形成一个全新的产品类别，比如传闻中的智能手表iWatch。此外，苹果还在投入时间开发一款新的电视产品。这样的新产品可为苹果提供新的增长领域——仅iWatch就可产生60亿美元的营收，而且可把该公司的利润率提升到再次给投资者留下深刻印象的水平。

    然而，目前投资者并不看好苹果，相反却强烈看好谷歌。上周，更多的分析师认为谷歌股价将会上涨至1,000美元，他们认为其他一些因素可能会在未来几年内推高谷歌股价。投资银行杰富瑞公司（Jeffries & Co.）认为，考虑到摩托罗拉手机业务的业绩改善、YouTube等非搜索领域以及电子商务计划，谷歌股价可能会上涨至四位数。或许更令人鼓舞的消息是，移动广告的点击率正在持续攀升，杰富瑞公司(Jefferies)分析师布莱恩•皮兹如是写道。

    苹果和谷歌股票之间的这种运势逆转有多少合理的成分呢？实际情况或许并不是股票走势图可能展现出来的模样。过去三年谷歌股票徘徊于600美元附近的大部分时间里，人们一直存在如下的猜测：首先，谷歌无法在以Facebook为代表的社会化媒体时代实现繁荣发展，之后人们对谷歌联合创始人拉里•佩奇出任首席执行官的表现没有把握。对于投资者而言，佩奇实施的一系列大胆举措直到现在才显现出其预期效果。

    与此同时，苹果已被投资者持续看涨多年，而且在iPhone和iPad的推动下，它的盈利增长表现强劲。这两款产品经过了多年的构思、设计以及执行，才形成我们如今所知道的产品。对于苹果，我们可以确定一件事，那就是它不会静静地坐在那里，数着自己积累起来的巨额现金。这家公司正在设法设计自创类别的新产品。真正的问题在于，这些产品是否会像iPad那样，得到消费者的认可和共鸣。

    In July 2012, the Presidential election was kicking into high gear, the Olympics were about to begin, and most people thought it was a matter of time before shares of Apple hit $1,000.

    Google (GOOG), meanwhile, was just muddling along. After doubling during 2009, its stock had been treading water around $600 a share for three and a half years. Apple (AAPL), too was trading around $600 a share, but the iPhone 5 was coming and the company Steve Jobs built seemed to have the wind at its back.

    Oh, how things have changed since then. Apple's stock has fallen 29% since mid-July. And Google? It's gained 46%, pushing past the $800 milestone while Apple languishes near $424 a share. Apple is tussling with investors over whether to pay more dividends, while Google rallies merrily on.

    There has been a lot of discussion over Apple's decline in recent months, and comparatively less about Google's corresponding rise. But the difference in between the two boils down to this: Apple is increasingly seen as coming off one of the greatest runs in the history of Silicon Valley. And Google may just be at the start of one.

    That is the new image of Google after two quarters of impressive earnings and more signs that the company is laying plans for long-term growth. "Looking at the consumer technology world over the next 10 to 20 years, we believe Google is far and away the best-positioned company," wrote Gene Munster, an influential tech analyst at Piper Jaffray.

    Munster pointed not to search or other advertising, which still accounts for 87% of the company's revenue, but to new ventures that have yet to hit the market, like Google Glass and self-driving cars, which he called one of Google's "biggest opportunities in the next 10 years."

    Compare that with Apple, which is seeing its share of the smartphone and tablet market erode over time as lower-margin, lower-cost Android rivals sell more products, and as Apple responds with its own lower-margin products like the iPad Mini.

    Although Apple infamously holds its cards close to its vest, it's working on its own new products -- some that could create an entirely new category like the rumored iWatch. Apple is also taking time to create a new TV device. Such new products could offer Apple new areas of growth -- the iWatch alone could produce $6 billion in revenue -- and beef up the company's profit margins to levels that would impress investors again.

    For now, however, sentiment is against Apple and strongly in favor of Google. This week, more analysts have joined the Google $1,000 club, citing other factors that could propel the stock higher in the coming year. Jeffries & Co. argued that a four-digit price is possible, given improvements in the Motorola handset business and non-search areas such as YouTube and commerce initiatives. Perhaps more encouraging, clickthrough rates on mobile ads are rising, Jeffries analyst Brian Pitz wrote.

    How deserved is this reversal of fortune between Apple and Google's stocks? Perhaps not as much as the stock charts might suggest. For much of the three years when Google was trading around $600 a share, it was subject to speculation that, first, it couldn't thrive in the era of Facebook (FB), and then later uncertainty around the new CEO Larry Page. The effectiveness of Page's bold steps are only now becoming apparent to investors.

    Apple, meanwhile, was riding a multi-year wave of bullishness and strong earnings growth that was driven by the iPhone and iPad. Those two products took years to conceive, design, and execute into the products we know. One thing that is certain about Apple -- it's not sitting quietly counting its pile of cash. It's trying to design new category-defining products. The real question is whether those products will resonate with consumers the way the iPad has.