无人机行业价值几何？

    全球最大的无人操纵系统行业组织称，无人机的时代正在向我们走来。无人机将会创造许多高技术岗位，带来上千万美元税收，还将产生数十亿美元的经济效益。无人机国际联盟（AUVSI）今天发布的一份报告预测，如果联邦航空局（FAA）能实现2015年将无人驾驶机系统（UAS）整合到国家民航系统中的目标，则2015年到2025年间为美国国内带来的经济效益将超过821亿美元——在此过程中将创造超过10万个高薪岗位。

    AUVSI称，从近期看，前景似乎更为美妙。全美到2025年将产生的103,776个新工作机会中，超过7万个将在航空整合完成后的三年内出现，同期产生的总经济效益将达到136亿美元。同时，在航空整合彻底完成后的十年内，无人驾驶机系统产业最发达的那些州，税收将高达4.82亿美元。

    而这个前景的前提是航空整合必须真正实现。根据《2012年联邦航空局修订法案》，国会要求航空当局必须到2015年前为商用无人机的试飞和牌照发放开发一套监管框架。去年，国会曾经要求指定6个联邦批准设立的UAS测试点，但这项工作遭遇无限期搁置。然而，要开发确保航空融合能顺利实现的各种技术，这些测试点不可或缺。同时，当局还要应付公众有关隐私权的各种问题（上个月，这项工作已经重新启动）。而各种关键技术问题也亟待解决，尤其是其中涉及到“感知、避开”的技术。这种技术能让无人机彼此之间、无人机与有人驾驶的飞机之间保持安全距离。

    这份报告还称，在UAS融入美国航空系统的进程上，联邦航空局每耽误一年，美国经济的潜在损失就高达100亿美元，而对那些既积极争取联邦航空局UAS测试点落户、又主动招揽UAS相关公司进驻的州来说，就不会出现这样的损失。无人机经济不会平均施惠于各州；报告指出，加州、华盛顿州、德克萨斯州、佛罗里达州和亚利桑那州是最有可能从这场无人机发展热潮中获得实惠的州。而其他州也在努力从这个行业的发展中分一杯羹。我们在近期举办的各类行业展会上看到，俄克拉荷马州频频亮相。同时，印第安纳州和俄亥俄州也开始携手努力，让它们共享的经济区成为对联邦航空局安置测试点更有吸引力的区域。这两个州都希望由此可带来上万个工作机会，产生巨额的经济效益。

    谁会是这些国产无人机的买主呢？可能并不是大家通常所认为的对象。由于公众担心小型无人机广泛进入国内空域会引发侵犯隐私权问题，各州和当地政府购买的小型无人侦察机未来只会成为总销售中的一小部分。这份报告称，无人机在农业领域的应用将远超其他领域，到2025年为全美带来的经济效益将达756亿美元。而给其他政府机构如警察系统、消防系统和其他应急机构等带来的经济效益将只有32亿美元。而同期，其他所有领域的应用——如气候和环境监测，油气勘探，航空测绘——也会产生32亿美元的经济效益。

    The drones are coming, according to the world's largest unmanned systems industry organization. And they are likely to bring high-tech jobs, millions in tax revenues, and tens of billions in economic impact with them. A report released today by the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) forecasts that if the Federal Aviation Administration meets its 2015 deadline for integrating unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the national civilian airspace, the total domestic economic impact will reach more than $82.1 billion between 2015 and 2025 -- creating more than 100,000 high-paying jobs in the process.

    In the near term, says AUVSI, the outlook appears even rosier. More than 70,000 of the total 103,776 new jobs forecast nationally by 2025 will be created in just the first three years after airspace integration is completed, along with $13.6 billion in overall economic impact in the same span. Meanwhile states where the UAS industry is strongest will begin collecting what will eventually amount to $482 million in tax revenue in the decade following full airspace integration.

    That's assuming integration happens at all. Under the 2012 FAA Reauthorization Act, Congress ordered aviation authorities to develop a regulatory framework for the testing and licensing of commercial drones by 2015, a deadline that the FAA may not meet. The process of naming six federally approved UAS testing sites necessary for developing the kinds of technologies that will enable safe airspace integration was delayed indefinitely last year while the agency dealt with various public privacy concerns (the process resumed last month), and a variety of critical technical problems -- not least of which involve "sense and avoid" technologies, which allow unmanned systems to maintain safe distances between each other as well as manned aircraft -- have yet to be resolved.

    For every year the FAA delays the integration of UAS into the national airspace, the economy loses $10 billion in potential economic gain, the report claims, a number that's not lost on states vying not only to play host to the FAA's UAS test sites but also to woo UAS-related companies. The drone economy won't be spread evenly; the AUVSI report names California, Washington, Texas, Florida, and Arizona as the states most likely to reap the economic rewards of a domestic drone boom. Other states are scrambling to capture a piece of the industry as well. Oklahoma has been noticeably visible at various industry trade shows of late, while Indiana and Ohio have partnered in an effort to make their shared economic region a more attractive place for the FAA to place a test site, which both states expect could generate thousands of jobs and billions in economic activity between them.

    Who exactly will be buying all these domestic drones? It's probably not who you think. While legitimate privacy concerns surround the proliferation of small UAS in the civilian airspace, sales of small surveillance drones to state and local authorities are only expected to make up a small portion of that spending. Agricultural applications dwarf all other categories, the AUVSI report claims, accounting for $75.6 billion of total national economic impacts by 2025, whereas government authorities like police, firefighters, and other first responders will generate just $3.2 billion. All other applications -- which range from weather and environmental monitoring, to oil and gas exploration, to aerial imaging and mapping -- will also result in a $3.2 billion impact over the same period.