中国改革何去何从？

    上周末，北京冷的出奇，寒意堪比达沃斯。很多知名人物参加了仅对受邀人员开放的中国发展高层论坛（China Development Forum），此前他们也在1月份受邀参加了冬季达沃斯年会。中国发展高层论坛在满是亭台水榭的钓鱼台国宾馆（the Diaoyutai State Guesthous， 周围由覆盖着琉璃瓦片的高墙所环绕）举办。此次论坛成为财富500强企业高管与诺贝尔奖得主及中国政府高官交流的盛会。中国总理李克强也将出席该论坛在人民大会堂举行的闭幕会议。与会期间，嘉宾们相互交换名片，探讨当今最引人注目的话题：中国将何去何从？

    多位发言人在开场白中提到了他们曾参加过多少届论坛。这个数字通常高达两位数。他们的讲话透露出对聚会上空谈的厌倦以及对付诸行动的渴望。

    中国现在仍然是一个奇迹，这一点毋庸置疑。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据显示，去年，中国这个世界第二大经济体的增速达到了7.8%，而世界经济（不含中国）的增长率仅为2.4%——接近但还没有达到非官方的衰退分水岭。（这一点要感谢中国。）此前中国经济长达20年的两位数增长让5亿人摆脱了贫困，但近些年的经济增速屡屡让人失望，2012年也不例外。中国尚未从2008-2009年的全球经济危机中恢复过来（欢迎中国与大家风雨同舟）。中国必须着手解决它在这轮经济危机中所暴露出来的问题。

    中国面临的令人担忧的趋势包括：过度依赖制造业和出口，这让中国对全球经济下滑尤为敏感；羸弱的第三产业；不够完善的社会保障体系，这使得广大中国职工更愿意去存钱而不愿花钱；当然还有污染问题、腐败问题、官僚体制僵化问题、金融体制未与国际透明度标准接轨的问题以及贫富差距不断扩大的问题。

    连续第十四次参加这个论坛的耶鲁大学（Yale）高级研究员史蒂芬•罗奇在围绕经济体制改革的分组讨论会上说：“改革这个词大家经常提到。尤其对于中国来说，改革一个非常重要的词，因为它已经成为了一种特别的传承，这个承诺始于上世纪70年代末邓小平倡导的改革开放。”罗奇还说，改革“要有目标性，要果敢，而且必须针对不同经济体的具体需求，不能为了改革而改革。”

    以习近平主席和李克强总理为核心的中国新一届领导班子似乎对未来将面临的挑战抱有务实的看法。今年论坛（由中国政府主办）的主题仍然略显呆板——“中国：改革开放与全面建成小康社会”。在英文中，小康社会有时会被草草翻译成同样呆板的描述，即“a moderately prosperous society”（“中等繁荣的社会”），但我们倒是可以理解。它符合中国“十二五”规划中的总体目标：解决不平等问题，包括沿海发达地区与内陆欠发达地区之间的收入和发展差距；促进国内消费；改善社会保障体系；还有，正如同副总理张高丽在会议第二天透过翻译所说，要发挥“市场在资源配置中的基础性作用，使企业在公平竞争中优胜劣汰，充分激发市场主体的活力。”

    It wasn't Davos, quite, but it was awfully cold last weekend in Beijing, and many of the headliners attending the invitation-only China Development Forum (CDF), held among the gardens and waterways (and behind the glass-shard-topped high walls) of the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, have also been invited to the Alps in January. CDF is where Fortune 500 CEOS mingle with Nobel Prize winners and top-level Chinese government officials—including a closing session at the Great Hall of the People with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Together they exchange many, many business cards, and examine the most compelling business topic of our day: Whither China?

    Several speakers began their remarks by noting how many years they've been coming. Often it's double digits, and infusing the mood of the gathering was a certain weariness with talk, coupled with impatience for action.

    China is still a miracle, no one doubts that. The world's second largest economy grew at 7.8% last year, according to the IMF, while the world excluding China grew 2.4%—near but not quite at the unofficial recession threshold. (Thank you, China.) But after two decades of double-digit growth that lifted five hundred million out of poverty, 2012 counts as another in a recent string of disappointments. China has yet to recover from the 2008-2009 global economic collapse (welcome to the club, China), an event which exposed vulnerabilities China must address.

    Among the worrisome trends: China's overreliance on manufacturing and exports, which makes it uniquely sensitive to downturns in the global economy; its anemic service-sector economy; its inadequate social safety net, which forces Chinese workers to save more and spend less; and of course the pollution problem, the corruption problem, the stultifying bureaucracy problem, the problems associated with a financial system that doesn't come close to meeting global standards for transparency, and not least, the growing divide between rich and poor.

    "The word reform gets thrown around a lot," said Yale's Stephen Roach, here for the 14th straight year, in a session on economic reform. "It's a very important word, especially for China, given its extraordinary legacy, beginning with the reforms and opening-up of Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s." But reforms, "must be goal-oriented," Roach continued, "they must be aggressive, and they must be focused on the specific requirements of individual economies. You cannot have reform for the sake of reform."

    China's new leadership under President Xi Jinping and Premier Li seems to have a realistic sense of the challenge that lies ahead. The theme of this year's conference (which is sponsored by the Chinese government) sounds a little stilted—"to Deepen Reform and Opening-up for a Well-off Society," the last part sometimes translated on the fly, equally stilted, as "a moderately prosperous society"— but we understand. It lines up with the broad goals of China's latest five-year plan: to address inequality, both of income, and of development between the overdeveloped coast and the underdeveloped interior; to increase domestic consumption; to strengthen the social safety net; and, as Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said through a translator in his speech on day two, to recognize "the fundamental role of the market in resource allocation so that capable companies can excel in competition and the dynamism of the market can be achieved."