巴菲特的高盛交易为什么赚了

    众所皆知，高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）在金融危机遭到了创伤，但伤情可能比大家之前了解的要更严重。

    我们能从沃伦•巴菲特与高盛公司最新达成的交易中解读出这一点。根据协议，伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）在金融危机最严重的时候斥资50亿美元投资高盛公司时获得的认股权证将被行权。算一算就知道当年高盛的高层们有多希望能以现金清偿；而这或许只是“股神”巴菲特的神奇之处。或者两种因素都存在吧。

    上周二，高盛发布公告修正之前与伯克希尔公司订立的协议，称将向伯克希尔公司交割市值14亿美元的股权。巴菲特的公司无需支付一毛钱就可获得这些股份。而此前高盛已经连本带利清偿了巴菲特在金融危机时候的投资。真可谓股神的神作啊。

    巴菲特与高盛之间的这笔交易是这么来的。2008年9月下旬，巴菲特同意对高盛注资50亿美元；作为回报，他获得了高盛市值50亿美元的优先股；同时获得了普通股认股权证，允许他以115美元/股的价格收购高盛另外价值50亿美元的普通股，尽管当时该股股价为125美元/股。因此这笔交易从一开始就是赚钱的。

    对于优先股部分，高盛公司承诺每年支付伯克希尔公司10%的分红，但有权随时回购本公司股票，代价是在巴菲特出价的基础上再加价10%。2011年4月，高盛公司支付55亿美元从伯克希尔公司手中回购了这些优先股。路易斯安纳州立大学拉菲特分校（University of Louisiana at Lafayette）金融学教授莱纳斯•威尔逊曾经分析过这笔交易，按累计13亿美元的红利计算，这笔交易的优先股部分给伯克希尔公司带来了总计18亿美元的收益。

    现在再来看权证部分。根据上周二达成的协议，巴菲特的公司不必花50亿美元去购买它有权购买的4,300万股高盛普通股。（按照3月28日股价计算，这些股票市值约64亿美元。）相反，高盛届时将以股票的形式支付给他14亿美元的差价。这样巴菲特获得的回报金额是不变的，不过最终持有的高盛公司股权要小得多。

    这就意味着巴菲特将从这笔对高盛公司历时四年半的长线投资中轻松获得总计达32亿美元的收益，投资回报率高达64%。它看上去是一笔典型的价值投资交易。当其他投资者卖出股票的时候，以超低价大举买入。巴菲特的传奇就是这么书写的。

    但这不是事实的真相。巴菲特在这笔对高盛公司的投资交易中所获得的收益实际上全部来自这笔投资的特殊结构：优先股和认股权证。仅凭股票本身质地来说，自巴菲特投资以来，高盛的股价表现并不特别出色。在这笔交易的投资期内，这只股票的价格累计涨幅为17.5%。同期标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）累计上涨29%；制药公司辉瑞制药（Pfizer）累计涨幅为53%；苹果公司（Apple）尽管最近股价有所回落，累计涨幅仍高达260%。

    We knew Goldman Sachs was wounded in the financial crisis. It may have been in more trouble than is understood.

    That's the sense you get from Warren Buffett's recently inked deal to turn the warrants Berkshire Hathaway received as part of its $5 billion investment in Goldman (GS) at the height of the financial crisis into stock. Do the math on the deal, and it becomes clear just how much Goldman's executives were willing to pay for cash at the time. Or maybe this is just the magic of Buffett. Or maybe it's both.

    On Tuesday, as part of an amendment to its earlier deal, Goldman said it would hand $1.4 billion worth of shares to Berkshire (BRKA). Buffet's company doesn't have to pay a penny for the shares. And this is after Goldman has already paid Buffett back for his financial crisis era investment in full, plus interest. Nice work if you can get it.

    Here's how the Buffett-Goldman deal got to this point. Buffett agreed to give Goldman $5 billion in late September 2008. In return, Goldman handed over $5 billion in preferred shares and a warrant that would allow Buffett to purchase an additional $5 billion shares at a price of $115, even though the shares were trading at $125 at the time, so in the money from the beginning.

    For the preferreds, Goldman agreed to pay Berkshire a yearly 10% dividend, with option of buying back the stock at any time for 10% more than what Berkshire had paid, which Goldman did in April 2011 for $5.5 billion. Linus Wilson, a finance professor at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, who has looked at the Goldman deal, puts the dividends at $1.3 billion. So that gives Berkshire a total return of $1.8 billion on the preferreds.

    Now come the warrants. In the deal struck on Tuesday, Buffett's firm won't have to put up the $5 billion to buy the 43.5 million shares it has a right to purchase, which would be worth roughly $6.4 billion today. Instead, Goldman is going to give Buffett the difference in stock at the time of the deal. Buffett's return is the same, but he's left with a much smaller stake in Goldman.

    Except that's not really what happened. Almost all of the gain Buffett got on his Goldman investment comes from the special structure of the investment -- the preferreds and the warrants. As a straight stock pick, Goldman hasn't been all that remarkable since Buffett put his money in. The stock is up just 17.5%. In the same time period, the S&P 500 (SPX) is up 29%. Shares of drug company Pfizer (PFE) are up 53% in the same time. Apple (AAPL), despite falling recently, is still up 260%.