苹果失约三月新品发布季

    苹果（Apple）遇到大麻烦了，如果说低迷不振的股价、接连放缓的营收增长，以及中国市场饱受诟病的售后服务还只是前奏的话，那么无法推陈出新可能会成为它致命的考验。自去年10月iPad Mini上市后，苹果至今尚未发布任何新品。过去四年，有三年苹果都在3月举办过盛大的新品发布会，但今年该公司没有这样做。而除3月份之外，苹果通常还会在每年6月份的年度开发者大会上发布多款新品。假如今年苹果真要一直等到6月份才发布新品的话，将出现一个长达8个月的主打产品发布真空期。要知道，13年来，苹果公司从来没有让用户等过这么久。

    最近几年，苹果新产品的推出频率非常有规律。9月份，一场极具特色的发布会会带来iPod和iTunes等音乐产品及服务的升级；等到10月，登台亮相的是苹果标志性的Macintosh计算机产品；而踏入三月份，迎接我们的是一场混搭发布会：从2009年惊艳亮相的iPod Shuffle到2011年经过重大改进的iPad 2，再到2012年的全新iPad。（2010年是苹果最后一次未在3月召开发布会，不过它在1月推出了第一代iPad，随后又在6月推出了全新设计的iPhone 4。）苹果过去曾多次在IDG World Expo举办的Mac世界（Macworld）展销会上发布重磅产品。但2009年以后，苹果停止了在这个活动上进行的主题发言，此举使得3月的新品发布会变得更加重要。

    三月春已到，但库比蒂诺仍然毫无风声，不少苹果观察家们对此议论纷纷。“太奇怪了。我们曾经认为，按照惯例，他们应该在三月做点什么。”投资银行Piper Jaffray的分析师吉恩•蒙斯特表示。“我们没指望苹果发布多款新品，但居然连一款都没有，真是失望透顶。”分析师曾预测苹果将发布视网膜版的iPad Mini，还将推出一项名为iRadio音乐订阅服务。虽然新服务还未发布，但铺天盖地的谣言已让互联网广播提供商Pandora的股价倍受打击。

    从去年10月发布iPad mini，到今年6月的全球开发者大会，中间有整整八个月，这意味着苹果必须在今年夏天大放异彩。除了升级版iPad mini和音乐订阅服务，明斯特预测，苹果在6月还将推出iPhone 5S和针对苹果电视的应用程序商店。而应用程序商店意义重大，它意味着苹果电视（这是真正的电视，不是之前推出号称是苹果电视的机顶盒）有望在今年12月发布。明斯特称：“他们届时很可能要发布以上四款（新品）中的三款，才能使今年6月的发布会成为一场真正的盛会。”

    苹果没有回应发表评论的请求。

    当然，这对苹果而言可能未尝不是件好事，或许漫长的等待意味着接下来会有大动作。蒙斯特预测，由于产品升级换代步伐加快，苹果的新品发布数量将有所上升。分析师们同时还预测苹果将在明年推出苹果手表（或许名为iWatch？）和廉价版的iPhone。

    话虽如此，苹果一直将这些重大活动视为公司长期计划的关键步骤。眼下苹果很可能将长达8个月没有新品推出，不禁令人生疑：苹果到底在打什么主意？（财富中文网）

    译者：项航

    As if a plunging stock price, slowing earnings growth, and customer-service woes in China weren't enough, Apple hasn't released a new product since October, when it released the iPad Mini. In three of the past four years, Apple has held a signature new-product event in March, but not this year. Were the company to wait until June, when it typically unveils new gadgets at its annual conference for developers, it would mark an eight-month gap in major releases, the longest wait Apple has inflicted on its customers in 13 years.

    Apple's (AAPL) product launch cycle in recent years has followed a metronome-like precision. September featured events to promote music products and services including the iPod and iTunes. October has been reserved for upgrades to the bedrock Macintosh computer line. The March event has seen a grab-bag of product releases, from a new iPod Shuffle in 2009 to the significantly improved iPad 2 in 2011 and a "new" iPad in 2012. (In 2010, the last year Apple didn't hold an event in March, it unveiled the first iPad in January and a redesigned iPhone 4 in June.) For years Apple announced major products at the Macworld trade show. But it stopped keynoting the independently produced event after 2009, making its March announcements all the more important.

    This year, March came and went without a peep from Cupertino, causing concern among avid Apple watchers. "It was a surprise. We had expected them to do something in March like they typically do," says analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray. "We weren't expecting a ton of fireworks, but the fact that it wasn't there was incrementally disappointing." Analysts had speculated that Apple would release an updated iPad mini with a retina display and a music subscription service. The rumored iRadio service has been enough to crater the stock of Internet radio provider Pandora (P), yet Apple hasn't released it.

    The long stretch between October's iPad mini announcement and June's Worldwide Developers Conference puts pressure on Apple to hit a homerun this summer. In addition to the iPad mini update and a music subscription service, analyst Munster expects an iPhone 5S in June, as well as a new app store for Apple TV. The App store would be significant because it would most likely signal that an Apple television -- an actual television as opposed to the set-top box known as Apple TV -- could be on track for a December release, he says. "They've probably got to do three out of four of those (new products) for it to be considered a real respectable June event," says Munster.

    Apple did not respond to requests for comment.

    The cup could be half full for Apple of course, with the long pause presaging a burst of activity. Munster expects the number of Apple announcements to increase as the pace of product upgrade cycles become shorter. Analysts are also anticipating an Apple watch (iWatch?) and a much cheaper version of the iPhone to come out in the next year.

    Even so, Apple has traditionally viewed these major events as important stepping-stones in the company's long-term plan. An eight-month silence begs the question: What has Apple been up to?