现代汽车面临战争威胁

    过去几年来，在朝鲜半岛两国相安无事的大背景下，现代汽车（Hyundai）及其姊妹品牌起亚（Kia）在美国市场异军突起，日益受到美国消费者追捧。而随着韩国汽车厂商本土外交紧张局势的加剧，一些人不禁要问，这种紧张局势会对现代汽车蒸蒸日上的全球业务造成什么影响。

    现代汽车集团（Hyundai Motor Group）的总部位于韩国。目前韩朝之间可能爆发的武装冲突将严重威胁现代在韩国的生产。不管这个地区爆发哪种形式的冲突，都将危及邻近海上与空中航线，而日本、中国和美国都必然会卷入这场冲突。立志要成为全球一线品牌的现代汽车近几年在全球大举扩张，仅过去十年间就在阿拉巴马州和乔治亚州建立了两个装配工厂。这些工厂主要依靠当地的零部件供应商供货。目前现代有57%的产能位于韩国以外的地区。

    现代汽车美国分公司发言人克里斯•霍斯福德指出，现代在美国最畅销的三款车型——索纳塔、伊兰特和新胜达——都是在美国本土生产的。因此，就算现代在韩国的运营可能出现问题，现代和起亚在美国的运营也不会受到太大冲击。

    今年3月，现代在美国的销量为96,024辆，其中三款畅销车型就达到69,977辆。今年，现代的销量增长了2.3%。为现代汽车和其他韩国公司提供咨询服务的韩国商业和文化专家唐•萨瑟顿称：“韩国人和那些在20世纪50年代初发生的冲突中受到过伤害的人不同，他们更愿意平息当前与朝鲜之间的紧张局势。”当然，1973年的时候，很多以色列人，包括政府官员在内，都绝不相信叙利亚和埃及敢于发动攻击，直到这一天真的到来。

    萨瑟顿称，重创日本工业及主要汽车厂商的2011年大海啸对韩国汽车业巨头具有深远影响。这次巨灾过后，包括现代汽车在内的几大韩国公司都决定设立海外应急中心，以便在急需时这些中心能充当总部。萨瑟顿认为，只有等到韩国找到某种方式，让朝鲜不失体面地放下咄咄逼人的架势时，两国的紧张局势才会缓解。他说：“这是过去韩国一直用来缓和半岛紧张局势的策略。”

    上周，朝鲜阻止韩国工人进入联合工业区，这是两国关系骤然吃紧的最新信号。而韩国工人进入联合工业区本来是两国实现经济合作的象征。先前朝鲜曾经威胁要对美国发起先发制人的打击，导致美国直接派出军机飞抵韩国待命。同时，美国还开始在朝韩地区部署导弹防御系统。

    对有些人来说，朝鲜半岛爆发军事冲突即使并非难以想象，也还是显得不太可能。但不可能的事件往往会像黑天鹅一样不期而至，也就是说，完全出乎意料时就已经大祸临头。去年，中日两国突然为了几个小岛发生争执，导致了一场外交风波。中国的汽车消费者当时立即开始抵制丰田汽车（Toyota）和其他日本品牌，最终导致日本企业收入下降。这一紧张局势后来得到缓和，不过日本品牌产品的销量至今都没有完全恢复。

    现代汽车【还有电子产业巨头三星公司（Samsung）】可能是韩国工业实力最令人自豪、也最显而易见的象征。正因为如此，对经常像是要决意自我毁灭的朝鲜来说，现代汽车很可能是非常富有吸引力的打击目标。幸运的是，现代汽车的全球布局似乎能为它提供一些保护。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    The remarkable rise in popularity of Hyundai and sister brand Kia with U.S. car buyers has largely unfolded over the past few years against a backdrop of calm on the Korean peninsula. As tensions rise in the manufacturer's homeland, some are asking how unrest might affect Hyundai's surging global business.

    The prospect of armed conflict between North and South Korea threatens manufacturing in the south, where Hyundai Motor Group is located. Japan, China, and the U.S. almost certainly would be drawn into any regional conflict that jeopardized sea lanes and air traffic. Hyundai Motor, in its bid for top-tier global status, has spread operations worldwide, constructing two U.S. vehicle assembly plants in the past decade, in Alabama and Georgia. The plants rely mostly on parts suppliers that also operate locally. About 57% of Hyundai's production capacity resides outside South Korea.

    Chris Hosford, a spokesman for Hyundai Motor in the U.S., noted that Hyundai's three top-selling vehicle models in the U.S. -- Sonata, Elantra, and Santa Fe -- are built locally. Presumably, Hyundai and Kia's U.S. operations wouldn't bear the full brunt of any potential disruption in South Korea.

    Through March of this year, Hyundai's three top sellers accounted for 69,977 of 96,024 vehicles sold in the U.S. Hyundai unit sales are up 2.3% for the year. Don Southerton, an expert on Korean business and culture who consults for Hyundai and other Korean companies, said "South Koreans, other than those scarred by the conflict of the early 1950s, tend to play down current tensions with the north." Of course, many Israelis, including government officials, never believed that Syria and Egypt would dare attack in 1973 -- until the day it happened.

    The 2011 tsunami that disrupted Japanese industry, including the country's major automakers, did have a profound effect on Korean planners, Southerton said. Following the disaster several big South Korean corporations, including Hyundai, decided to set up emergency offshore centers that could serve as headquarters if needed. Southerton thinks tensions could continue until South Korea finds a way to allow North Korea to back down gracefully from its aggressive stance. It's "a tactic South Korea has followed in the past to ease tension on the peninsula," he said.

    The latest sign of tension came this week as North Korea blocked the entry of hundreds of South Korean workers into a joint industrial zone that had been a symbol of economic cooperation. Previously North Korea threatened a preemptive strike against the U.S., prompting a flyover of the south by U.S. military aircraft. The U.S., meanwhile, is moving missile defense systems into the region.

    For some, military conflict on the Korean peninsula remains improbable, if not unthinkable. But improbable events can arrive like black swans, that is to say, unexpectedly. Last year China and Japan suddenly were at odds over sovereignty of several small islands, creating a diplomatic furor. Car buyers in China immediately began boycotting Toyota (TM) and other Japanese brands, which translated into lower earnings. The tension has since calmed, though sales of Japanese brands in China have not totally recovered.

    Hyundai (along with electronics titan Samsung) might be the one of the proudest and most visible symbols of South Korean industrial might. As such, the automotive brand could be a tempting target for a North Korean regime that often seems determined to self-destruct. Fortunately, Hyundai's global scale seems to afford it some protection.