HTC复兴全靠消费者“喜新厌旧”

    在智能手机行业，运气来得快去得也快。就在2006年的时候，诺基亚（Nokia）还控制着智能手机市场的大半壁江山。iPhone直到2007年夏天才出现。当时安卓（Android）手机甚至还没有面世。安卓公司于2005年被谷歌（Goolge）收购，但是直到宏达电（HTC）在2008年秋天推出Dream智能手机，安卓才作为一个竞争者进入了市场。

    去年第四季度，全球智能手机出货量中70%安装的都是安卓系统，因此安卓毫无疑问还会继续主宰全球智能手机市场。五年前，安卓作为一个开源移动操作系统平台，被提供给那些想与诺基亚、苹果（Apple）和黑莓（Blackberry）分一杯羹的手机厂商。它也是开放手机联盟的代表系统，而这个开放手机联盟的成员则包括HTC、三星（Samsung）和摩托罗拉(Motorola)等大牌厂商。

    起初，HTC似乎是最有可能获得巨大成功的安卓厂商。这不仅仅是因为它的Dream手机开创了安卓时代的先河，同时也因为谷歌的第一个“亲儿子”Nexus 1就是HTC代工的。虽然安卓是个开源平台，但是它也需要一个领头羊。在早期的安卓时代，HTC貌似就是那只领头羊。到了2013年，三星则成了安卓王国的霸主。

    HTC怎么了？从最近的数据看，它显然存在一些问题。根据康姆斯科公司（comScore）的数据，去年12月及今年1、2月份，HTC在美国智能手机用户中的占有率降低了1.3个百分点，降至9.3%，跌幅甚至超过了被谷歌收购的摩托罗拉。同一时期，三星的占有率上升了1%，苹果的占有率上升了4%。根据巴克莱研究公司（Barclays Research）的数据，HTC今年的全球手机出货量可能会跌至第十位。

    上周，HTC提前宣布了今年第一季度的收益，成绩并不喜人。第一季度HTC的净收入为8500万新台币（合280万美元），下降了98%，远远低于分析师预测的6亿新台币。其第一季度营收为4280万新台币，下跌了37%。这已经是HTC连续第六个季度收益持续下跌了。

    另一个让人沮丧的信号是HTC的出货量也在下降。首先，利润下降的主要原因是HTC One手机的推迟出货。HTC One搭载了一块十分吸引人的显示屏，近来受到了不少好评。据说摄相头供应不足是导致出货推迟的主要原因。智能手机厂家们不仅要为争抢消费者而竞争，还得为了抢零部件而竞争。

    HTC One本来定在今年三月份发布，比三星的最新型号Galaxy S4还早了几周。随着三星成为苹果日益强大的竞争对手，其新发布的Galaxy S4手机也获得了不少好评和关注。如果能提前一个月发布HTC One手机，将有助于HTC抢占市场先机，并证明自己在智能手机研发上走在了行业前列。可惜HTC One的发布被延期到4月，而且预计本周才会发货开卖。

    HTC宣布第一季度收支的当日，其股价以下跌2.2个百分点收盘，不过在接下来的四天里又逆势上扬8.5%，本周收于261.50元新台币。这次股价上扬可能是由于Facebook与HTC合作的Facebook Home系统受到了好评的缘故。而HTC First手机则成为第一款支持Facebook Home的手机。不过以后Facebook Home将也可以下载到其它手机上。

    尽管如此，由于HTC手机的市场份额不断下降，该公司的股价近年来也明显下跌，从2011年4月顶峰时的1300元新台币下跌了80%。HTC希望凭借HTC One手机扭转颓势，因此给HTC One配备了一块性能超强的显示屏、一个意在与iPhone竞争的铝合金机身、以及HTC自家生产的图形处理芯片。

    华尔街的分析师们对HTC的展望持分歧态度，不过大多数分析师都认为，HTC One对该公司的影响将大于HTC First。摩根大通公司（J. P. Morgan）在上周的一份报告中称HTC One是HTC公司“翻身的最后一次机会”，还称“从早期迹象看，它的订购率很强势”，并表示本季度HTC的营收可能会比上季度增长50%。高盛等公司则认为，造成HTC One出货延迟的供应链问题仍是一个不稳定因素。

    HTC One是宏达电赢回市场份额的最好机会。HTC的新任市场总监最近表示，在这个安卓手机多如牛毛的市场中，HTC将更大声、更大胆地迎合消费者。上周为了推广HTC One，HTC公司还在Funny or Die等网站上发布了一个恶搞电视真人秀的广告。

    在智能手机市场上，消费者的口味是非常善变的，这完全有可能使HTC再次成为赢家。不过目前，这家一度曾是最有希望成功的安卓手机厂商还得先为生存而战。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    This is how quickly fortunes change in the smartphone industry. In 2006, Nokia (NOK) still controlled more than half of the share of the smartphone market. The iPhone wouldn't appear until the summer of 2007. And no one was making Android phones. Android Inc., bought by Google (GOOG) in 2005, wouldn't emerge as a player until HTC released the Dreamsmartphone in the fall of 2008.

    Android, of course, would go on to dominate the global smartphone market, powering 70% of smartphones shipped in the last quarter of 2012. Five years ago, Android was an open-source mobile OS offered to device manufacturers that wanted to take on Nokia, Apple (AAPL), and BlackBerry (BBRY). It was the OS supporting the Open Handset Alliance, whose members included manufacturers like HTC, Samsung, and Motorola.

    Early on, HTC emerged as the company most likely to succeed as the big maker of Android phones. Not only because of the Dream -- the inaugural Android smartphone -- but also theNexus One, Google's first attempt to design its own smartphone. Android may have been an open OS, but it needed a leader. Early on, HTC looked to be that leader. Instead, it's Samsung that is ruling the Android empire in 2013.

    And what of HTC? By recent numbers, it's ailing. According to comScore, its share of U.S. smartphone subscribers fell 1.3 percentage points to 9.3% in the three months through February, a bigger decline than Motorola (now owned by Google). Samsung saw its share grow by 1 percentage point and Apple by 4 points. Measured by global smartphone shipments, according to Barclays Research, HTC may drop to No. 10 this year.

    Last week, HTC pre-announced its first-quarter earnings, and the news wasn't good. Net income declined 98% to NT$85 million ($2.8 million), well below analyst estimates of NT$600 million. Revenue fell 37% to NT$42.8 million. The quarter marked the sixth straight decline in profit for the Taiwan-based company.

    For some, the disappointing news was another sign that HTC's ship is sinking. Most of the disappointing profit centered around the delayed release of the HTC One phone, an Android phone with an attractive display screen that had been winning largely positive reviews. A shortage of cameras reportedly forced the delay of the new phones. Smartphone makers don't just have to compete for consumers, they also often compete for components.

    The HTC One was supposed to release in March, several weeks ahead of Samsung's new smartphone -- the Galaxy S4, which had also won strong early reviews and received a fair amount of attention now that Samsung has emerged as a rival to Apple. Having a head start of a month could help HTC steal thunder and show that it was making a big step forward with its smartphones. Instead, the HTC One was delayed until April, with shipment expected to begin this week.

    HTC's stock closed down 2.2% on the day it announced those numbers. But it ended up rallying 8.5% over the next four days, closing the week at NT$261.50. That rally appeared to be sparked by the positive reception of Facebook Home, Facebook's (FB) effort to coopt Android's OS to create a front-end interface designed around its own social network. Another HTC phone, the First, was presented as the first Facebook Home phone, although Home will be dowloadable to other Android phones.

    Still, the decline in its market share has brought HTC's stock down significantly from its levels in recent years, trading 80% below the high point of NT$1,300 in April 2011. The One is intended to turn that around, with its impressive display, a casing designed to rival that of the iPhone, and an image processor chip that HTC made in-house.

    Wall Street analysts remain divided on HTC's outlook, but most feel the One would have a bigger impact on its fate than the First. J.P. Morgan, which described the One as HTC's "last chance for a turnaround," said in a report last week that "early signs of order rates are very strong" and could deliver 50% growth in revenue this quarter over the previous quarter. Others, like Goldman Sachs, were concerned that the supply-chain issues that delayed the One could continue to be a factor.

    HTC's One is the company's best chance to win back market share. The company's new marketing chief recently promised a louder voice and bolder approach in reaching out to consumers in a market flooded with Android phones. Last week, to promote the HTC One, the company launched an ad campaign mocking reality TV shows on sites like Funny or Die.

    In the smartphone market, consumer tastes are just fickle enough to make HTC a winner again. For now, the Android manufacturer that once seemed most likely to succeed is just fighting to stay in the game.