科技巨头的技术老化难题

    科技行业的核心就是创新。今天的科技巨头们之所以获得了成功，就是因为他们创造了昨天的新事物。而另一方面，在这个行业，新技术老化的速度比其它大多数行业都要快。因此，哪怕是一些十几年前就主宰了科技业的企业，可能也会迅速老化。

    英特尔（Intel）、微软（Microsoft）、IBM等科技巨头于上周发布了2013年第一季度财报，它们就给大家留下了这样的印象。尽管各个公司的业绩和投资者的反应各不相同，但是可以看出，三家公司有一个共同点，那就是它们都在一边推进云计算等新的朝阳领域，一边也都在努力阻止老业务的下滑。

    其中最明显的例子就是IBM。上周，IBM发布了第一季度收益报表后，股价至今已经下跌了9.3%。IBM是一家拥有101年历史的老店了。2004年，IBM为了进军利润更高的软件和IT服务领域，将PC业务打包出售。自从那时起，IBM的增长势头使它的股票成为了科技投资者眼中的宠儿。

    即便如此，IBM仍然面临着业务老化的问题。上季度IBM的收益为234亿美元，比去年同期下跌了5%，同时也低于分析师的预测。其中最主要的问题出在硬件上，因为包括基于x86架构的服务器在内的硬件（如PC等）已经成了低利润产品。有报告指出，IBM可能会把它的x86服务器业务卖给联想（Lenovo）。早在2004年，IBM便把它的PC业务出售给了这家公司。

    IBM是第一批进军云计算领域的大科技公司之一。而现在，随着各大企业纷纷进军云计算领域，IBM的一些老业务也受到了冲击。IBM上周发布财报后，里昂证券亚太市场（CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets）的分析师艾德•马奎尔在一份研究纪录中写道：“我们怀疑，加快采用云计算技术的行为至少导致了顾客在评估各项方案时出现了一些拖延。”

    这种矛盾上个季度在微软公司也很明显。在CEO史蒂夫•鲍尔默的领导下，微软已经建立了一个由Office、Sharepoint和Exchange组成的坚实的业务部门，其业绩占到了微软总销售额的31%。Xbox及其它娱乐产品贡献了微软总销售额的12%，服务器则占25%。在这些产品中，大多数的销售额在上季度增长缓慢，运营利润同样如此。

    投资者似乎特别关注来自微软Windows部门的那25%的收益。自从两家独立研究机构指出，上季度全球PC销量下跌超过10%以来，微软的股价应声亦有所下跌，但上季度微软的Windows收入却上升了23%。这在很大程度上要归功于早前几个季度的递延收入，以及微软自家出品的Surface平板电脑的销量。（微软现在不光销售Windows软件，同时也开始销售Windows硬件，后者虽然对收益做出了贡献，但却给运营利润带来了压力。）

    微软CEO鲍尔默把Windows 8视为一条让微软脱离传统PC（如笔记本电脑和台式电脑），转而进军平板电脑和智能手机市场的可行之路。这是一个明智的决定，可以让微软针对新的市场进行定位，但此举也进一步减缓了市场对PC的需求，而PC正是微软传统市场的核心部分。

    At its heart, the tech industry is about the new. Today, tech giants succeeded because of what was new yesterday. The flip side is that the new ages into the old more quickly in tech than in most other industries. And so companies that dominated tech even a decade ago can appear to be aging quickly.

    Such is the picture of the tech industry after a week of earnings reports that saw giants like Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), and IBM (IBM) discuss their financials in the first quarter of 2013. While the individual results and subsequent reactions among investors varied, one thread ran through all three: Each is struggling to manage older businesses in decline even as they push into promising new areas like cloud computing.

    The most dramatic example was IBM, which has seen its stock decline 9.3% since it reported first-quarter earnings last week. IBM, a 101-year-old company, sold its PC business in 2004 in an effort to move into higher-margin software and IT services businesses. Its growth since then has made the stock a favorite among tech investors.

    Even so, IBM is still struggling with aging businesses. Revenue at the company fell 5% last quarter from the same quarter a year earlier to $23.4 billion, below analyst forecasts.

    Much of the disappointment centered around hardware, including servers based on x86 architecture that, like PCs, have become low-margin commodities. Some reports suggested IBM may sell its x86 server business to Lenovo (LNVGY), the company that bought its PC business years ago.

    IBM was one of the big companies to move early into cloud computing, and yet as companies finally embrace the cloud, that transition is hurting IBM's older businesses. "We suspect accelerating adoption of cloud computing is 
at the very least creating some delays as customers assess options," Ed Maguire, an analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said in a research note following IBM's earnings.

    That paradox is also evident in Microsoft's most recent quarter. Under CEO Steve Ballmer, Microsoft has built up a solid enterprise division of Office, Sharepoint, and Exchange, which makes up 31% of its sales. Xbox and other entertainment products make up another 12% of sales and servers still another 25%. For the most part, most have been seeing modest growth in revenue and operating profit.

    Investors seem particularly focused on the 25% of revenue that comes from its Windows division. Its stock fell after two independent research firms showed PC sales falling more than 10% last quarter. Microsoft ended up reporting a 23% rise in Windows revenue, thanks largely to deferred revenue from sales in earlier quarters and its own Surface tablets. (Microsoft is selling Windows hardware and not just Windows software, which adds to revenue but weighs on operating margins.)

    Ballmer envisioned Windows 8 as a way to pull Microsoft away from traditional PCs like laptops and desktops and into tablets and smartphones. It was the smart thing to do, positioning Microsoft for new markets, but it's also accelerating the decline in demand for PCs that are the core of Microsoft's traditional markets.