送走老掌门，Groupon有望迎来第二春

    当年，团购网站Groupon还是创业典型，创始人兼前任CEO安德鲁•梅森经常出现在杂志封面，宣传每日特惠的好处——比如大幅折扣的按摩服务、晚餐和旅行产品等。如今，对于梅森及其当年的同事来说，这些似乎已经成为遥远的记忆。

    四年半以前，梅森成立了Groupon。如今，Groupon成了被炒作的互联网宠儿。然而，扩张太快，商业模式不透明，几乎不存在毛利润，更不用因为嫌赚钱太少，满心不高兴的合伙人，这一切让这家公司变成了行业内的失败典型。更糟糕的是如雨后春笋般出现的竞争对手，比如LivingSocial。后者突然出现，以同样极低的价格提供类似的交易。【实际上，早在2011年，弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）就曾认为，Groupon的资质存在重大问题，“是一个很快就会被曝光的托儿。”】

    高德纳研究公司（Gartner Research）分析师基恩•阿尔瓦雷斯从一开始就不看好Groupon。确实，消费者能得到很大的实惠，商家在非高峰期也可以获得更多顾客。然而，这种做法仍不足以使顾客成为回头客，按全价购买之前用5折优惠价就能买到的产品。阿尔瓦雷斯反问：“如果我是一名商人，而且我已经知道如何操作5折优惠价策略，那还有什么会阻止我继续打折促销呢？”对许多商人来说，打折只会产生同样的效果（或同样没有效果）。

    所以，当Groupon报告称，2012年公司年收入为23.3亿美元，而净亏损则为6,740万美元时，不要大惊小怪。二月，公司报告称第四季度的财务状况未达到分析师预期——致使Groupon的股票下跌了20%——最终迫使梅森被解雇。据称，自去年晚些时候，投资者们一直在呼吁公司采取这个措施。梅森在一封写给全公司的信中承认：“我能接受自己在这方面的失利……我最后悔的是，由于数据的不足，我忽视了自己的直觉，没有最大限度地让消费者满意。”

    Groupon联合创始人兼董事会主席埃里克•莱夫科夫斯基一直在尽量让自己远离这家公司。这一次，他与泰德•莱昂西斯被重新聘为公司联席CEO。莱夫科夫斯基严厉谴责了自己的联合创始人和前任。“你可以说：‘所有人都在这里，所有人都应该负责，包括高级经理、董事会等，’最近，他对《快速公司》杂志（Fast Company）这样说。‘然而，说到底，CEO就是CEO。是他做出了所有那些艰难的决定。如果一切进展顺利，你就是英雄；而如果事情并不顺利，你就得负责。’”

    梅森被炒鱿鱼的消息刺激公司股票上涨超过了39%。然而，对于梅森离开之后的Groupon，虽然华尔街有可能重拾信心，但公司的未来仍不明朗。弗雷斯特研究公司研究员苏卡里塔•穆尔普鲁过去一直在批评Groupon，但他最终相信公司会拥有一种可持续的模式，尽管公司规模距离其巅峰时期缩水不少。

    阿尔瓦雷斯建议，Groupon可以更充分地利用自己的优势——2亿多团购订户——他们实质上都是寻找下一笔生意的价值型购买者。Groupon或许并不是为商家培养客户忠诚度的出色工具，然而，通过向新交易类型扩张，这个平台可以向同一批团购者交叉推广不同类型的交易。他们可能某一天希望购买一顿打折的晚餐，第二天又希望去哥斯达黎加度过四天的假期。

    The days when Groupon was a poster child, when founder and ex-CEO Andrew Mason graced magazine covers propagating the pros of the daily deal -- for deeply discounted massages, dinners, trips, and the like -- probably seem like a distant memory to Mason and his one-time employees.

    Four-and-a-half years after Mason founded the company, Groupon (GRPN) is a cautionary tale of a hyped-up Internet darling that expanded too quickly atop an opaque business model with low-to-nonexistent profit margins -- not to mention unhappy partners who complained there was little upside for them. Just as bad were the countless competitors like LivingSocial, which popped up, seemingly overnight, offering similar deals at similarly cutthroat prices. (Indeed, as early as 2011, Forrester Research deemed Groupon an unqualified disaster, "a shill that's going to be exposed pretty soon.")

    Gene Alvarez, a Gartner Research analyst, was never bullish on Groupon to begin with. Sure, customers got great deals, and merchants saw more customers come in during off-hours, but there remained little incentive for buyers to come back to the same merchant for a second or third time and pay full price for a service they previously paid 50% less for. "If I'm a merchant, and I know how already to run a 50% what's to stop me from sticking a sale in the window?" asks Alvarez. For many merchants, doing just that may be equally effective (or ineffective).

    So it shouldn't have come as a complete surprise when Groupon reported annual revenues of $2.33 billion but a net loss of $67.4 million for 2012. Last February, when the company reported fourth-quarter financials that missed analysts' estimates -- sending Groupon's stock down 20% initially -- Mason was finally fired. By some accounts, it was a move investors had clamored for since late last year. "I'm OK with having failed at this part of the journey ... My biggest regrets are the moments that I let a lack of data override my intuition on what's best for our customers," Mason confessed in a company-wide letter.

    Groupon co-founder and chairman Eric Lefkofsky, who had since distanced himself from the company, was brought back as co-CEO, alongside Ted Leonsis. Lefkofsky had some stern words for his co-founder and predecessor. "You could say, 'Well everyone was here, and everyone's to blame including the senior manager, the board, whatever,' he told Fast Companyrecently. "But at the end of the day, the CEO is the CEO. And he makes those tough calls. If they go well, you're a hero, and if they don't go well, you're accountable."

    Mason's ousting has since helped propel shares up over 39%. But while Wall Street may have some renewed confidence in a Mason-free Groupon, the company's future remains unclear. Sucharita Mulpuru, a Forrester Research analyst, has been critical of Groupon in the past, but ultimately believes it has a sustainable model, albeit a smaller one compared to the company's peak.

    Alvarez suggests Groupon could take better advantage of its strength -- its list of 200 million-plus deals subscribers -- who, at their core, are value shoppers searching for the next deal. Groupon might not be a great tool for creating customer loyalty for a merchant, but by expanding into new deal categories, it can cross-promote different kinds of deals to the same hardcore list of subscribers, who might be willing to buy a discounted dinner one day, then spring for a four-night getaway to Costa Rica the next.