灯泡大战谁胜出

    发光二极管（LED），也就是现在为许多平板电视提供背光的同一种技术，明年的使用量有望翻番。这项技术将在商业应用中取代荧光灯，帮助制造更加节能、污染更少的路灯，而且最为重要的是，它的视觉效果更酷。

    据市场调研公司NPD Display Search最新发布的预测报告显示，照明应用的LED用量将从2012年的1,500万支翻倍至2013年预期的3,300万支。这个数字到2015年可能会增长两倍。全球LED照明应用的渗透率可能会从去年仅占5％的市场份额增长至26％的市场份额。

    到目前为止，日本一直是LED灯的最大市场，而在中国，政府的要求（包括十二五计划）也会很快带动这个市场。市场研究公司IHS iSuppli照明市场分析师菲利普•斯莫尔伍德说：“中国这方面的市场潜力是真是存在的，但是，在美国，我们有许多监管规定也将发挥作用。”

    今年1月份，由于2007年《美国能源独立和安全法案》的实施，继100瓦白炽灯系列产品终结之后，我们进一步淘汰了75瓦白炽灯。明年，美国还将禁止使用60瓦白炽灯。LED灯很可能会填补这个空白。不过，它们也会取代那些弧形节能荧光灯，节能灯现在看来差不多就是从白炽灯向LED灯过渡的临时替代品。NPD DisplaySearch照明技术分析师史蒂文•谢尔解释说：“节能灯正在取代白炽灯，而LED灯正在取代节能灯。”目前还没有制定任何逐步淘汰节能灯的政策，但是有许多逐步淘汰白炽灯的政策。

    但是，对于美国、欧洲甚至中国而言合理的趋势，发展中国家未必会予以遵循。虽然LED的价格继续下跌，但LED灯还是比较昂贵。因此，在未来10年里，白炽灯会证明，自己在世界许多地方仍然会继续受到欢迎。此外，在发展中国家，节能灯就算由于含有汞而存在环保问题，但他它的普及率还是会超过LED灯。斯莫尔伍德补充说：“在欠发达国家，由于他们没有我们北美国家那样的消费能力，他们很可能会坚持使用节能灯。”

    Light-emitting diodes (LED) -- the same technology that now provides the backlight for many flat panel TVs -- will see its use double in the next year. The technology will replace fluorescent tubes in commercial applications, help make more efficient street lights with less light pollution, and most importantly could look cool in the process.

    According to NPD DisplaySearch's latest forecast, LED in lighting applications will double from 15 million units in 2012 to a forecasted 33 million in 2013. That number could triple by 2015. The global penetration for LED light applications will likely increase to 26% of the market, up from just 5% last year.

    To date, Japan has been the largest market for LED lights, while China will soon drive the market due to government demands including the 12th Five-Year Plan. "The potential for China is there," says Philip Smallwood, lighting market analyst for IHS iSuppli. "But in the United States we have a lot of regulation also coming to into play."

    This past January saw the switch flipped for the 75-watt incandescent light bulb, which followed the end of the line for the 100-watt as a result of the Energy Independence and Security Actof 2007. Next year will see the ban move to 60-watt bulbs as well. LED bulbs will likely fill this void. But they could also replace those curly compact fluorescent bulbs that now seem little more than stopgaps between incandescents and LEDs. "Compact fluorescent light bulbs are replacing incandescent bulbs, and LED bulbs are replacing the compact fluorescent light bulbs," explains Steven Sher, NPD DisplaySearch analyst for lighting technologies. There are currently no policies in place to phase out compact florescent light bulbs; however, there are many policies to phase out the incandescent bulbs.

    However, what is true for the U.S., Europe, and even China won't necessarily follow for the developing world. While the price of LEDs continues to fall, these bulbs are still more expensive, and thus incandescents could prove popular in many parts of the world throughout the next decade. Moreover it will likely be the compact fluorescent bulbs -- even with the environmental concerns as the bulbs contain mercury -- which will outpace LED adoption in the developing world. "In the less-developed countries where they don't have the spending capacity that we have in North America they will likely stick to the CFLs," adds Smallwood.