苹果广告昭示柯达没落根源

    苹果公司（Apple）目前推出了一则全新的广告，其中只有一句简单的话：“每一天，用iPhone拍摄的照片数量超过任何相机所拍。”

    简洁、紧凑而精炼的表达。广告本身也很优美。

    当我看到这则广告时，它手法简朴、人性化的剪辑风格给我的第一反应是单纯的感动。

    但再细想，我就想到了柯达公司（Kodak）。多年来，柯达一度一直是摄影领域的霸主。当摄影技术开始从模拟胶片向数字化发展的时候，柯达只是做了一些微不足道的尝试就算是加入了这股潮流，但总的来说是远远落在人后了。在柯达发展的黄金年代，摄影的消费就是类似“剃刀/刀片”的模式，柯达靠卖胶卷赚得盆满钵满。而当胶片从“必不可少”变成“怀旧必备”后，柯达就再也无法东山再起了。

    如果读了《创新者的困境》（Innovator's Dilemma）或是一些风投的博客，就难免会从理论上认为，柯达本应该推出一个子品牌在技术变革期实现过渡。教条主义束缚了手脚……只为了在数码摄影转型期养精蓄锐伺机再起。

    不过，在柯达这个案例上，这个理论上的脱困办法最终也会宣告失败。手机！这才是当今拍照的利器。柯达本应该看到，这些手机才是未来大众青睐的相机，从而做出重大决策，为公司节约成本。

    Apple (AAPL) is running a new ad in which there is one simple line of dialog: " Every day, more photos are taken with the iPhone than any other camera."

    Simple, tight, concise message. And the ad is beautiful.

    When I saw this ad, my first reaction was a simple, emotional response to the raw, human editing style.

    But then on further reflection, I thought of Kodak. For years, Kodak was a dominant brand in photography. As photography started to move from analog film to digital, Kodak made small attempts to participate in the shift, but were largely left behind. In Kodak's prime, photography was a "razor / razorblade" model and Kodak was minting money selling film. When film went from "essential" to "nostalgic" the company never recovered.

    After reading the Innovator's Dilemma or a few VC blog posts, one could expound academically that Kodak should have tried to launch a sub-brand to make the transition through technology disruption. Textbook encumbant behavior… in order to live to fight another day in the digital photography transition.

    But, even that academic approach would have ultimately failed in this case. A phone! That's the dominant camera choice today. Kodak needed to make critical, company-saving decisions by seeing that one of these was going to be everyone's camera in the future:

    柯达怎么可能预见到手机将成为自己需要殊死一搏的对手呢？他们完全没有胜算。（财富中文网）

    安德鲁•帕克是风投公司Spark Capital的掌门人，致力于消费者服务领域中的技术应用层面。本篇博文最初是在他的博客发表的。

    译者：清远

    How could Kodak possibly have the foresight to battle a phone? They never stood a chance.

    Andrew Parker (@andrewparker) is a principal with VC firm Spark Capital, where he focuses on the applications layer of the technology stack in consumer services. This post originally appeared on his blog.