解决小企业问题是欧洲脱困的关键

    欧洲央行（European Central Bank）上周削减了基准利率，是该行近一年来首次降息，缓解了投资者的顾虑。全球股市同时飙升，但要让欧洲真正摆脱债务危机，欧洲央行可能还差了一步，那就是为中小型企业提供帮助。

    欧元区处境最艰难的是意大利和西班牙，这两个国家的经济动力就是中小企业。举例来说，中小企业占西班牙经济的60%以上，而且提供了80%的就业岗位。

    地区性储蓄银行曾是这些企业的依靠，但金融危机爆发后这些银行就不再大量放贷，甚至完全不放贷。而此前的很多个年头里，这些银行对借款人要求过低，经营过程中持有的权益资本也过少。几年前，西班牙有45家地区性储蓄银行，现在只剩13家，而且这13家银行的未来也存在变数。

    它已经成了一个重大问题，西班牙和意大利的失业水平也因此不断上升。信贷紧缩还造成税收下降，让欧元区外围国家更难以将赤字水平削减到可控范围。

    上周四，欧洲央行突然采取行动，将主要再融资利率下调0.25个百分点，降至0.50%。此前的两周时间里，一系列数据表明，进入2013年后，欧元区经济已经连续第六个季度出现滑坡。4月份，欧元区失业率上升到了12.1%，通胀率降至1.2%，远低于欧洲央行紧贴2%的中期目标。

    独立宏观经济咨询机构Capital Economics经济学家保罗•阿什沃斯认为，对欧元区外围国家那些陷入困境的银行来说，虽然削减利率会给它们带来一些迫切需要的帮助，但只凭降息并不足以把欧元区拉出衰退的泥潭。

    他在写给客户的报告中指出：“我们此前所期待的是欧洲央行通过降低抵押品标准或其他措施来促进放贷，特别是对中小企业放贷。”

    当然，欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉已经表示，该行可能采取其他措施来防止欧元区陷入进一步的衰退，其中包括让企业贷款恢复活力，但针对这些措施进行的讨论才刚刚开始。官方计划正在制定之中，专家们则表示，如果希望促进中小企业贷款，欧洲央行就得提升自身资产负债表中的风险水平。

    做到这一点并不容易，原因是刚刚摆脱金融危机阴霾的银行还远没有充分复苏，对风险有相当大的抵触情绪。但Capital Economics欧洲经济学家詹姆斯•豪厄特认为，存在几个可选方案，比如欧洲央行可以购买中小企业支持证券，或者其中的某些批次，借此承担一些风险。但这个思路意味着大量购买投资级以下资产，它所带来的信用风险可能超过欧洲央行所愿意接受的水平。因此，欧洲央行部分成员认为这可能不是一个好现象。

    国际经济政策私营研究机构Peterson Institute for International Economics高级研究员雅各布•芬克•柯克加德指出，由欧洲投资银行（European Investment Bank）或欧盟委员会（European Commission）出面为至少一部分贷款提供担保或为这些贷款造成的损失提供某种形式的资金缓冲，这种方法在政治上遇到的挑战可能会小一些。关键在于，和直接促进中小企业贷款的有效措施相比，利率降到多低都不重要。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    The European Central Bank eased investor worries last week when it cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time in almost a year. Stocks around the globe soared, but the central bank stopped short of doing one thing that could really turn around the region's debt crisis: Help small and medium-sized businesses.

    In Italy and Spain, among the eurozone's most troubled places, such businesses drive the economy. For instance in Spain, more than 60% of the economy and 80% of the jobs come from small and medium-sized companies – otherwise, known as SMEs.

    These businesses once relied on regional savings banks, but since the financial crisis those banks aren't lending much, if at all, after years of being too easy on borrowers and operating with too little equity. Whereas Spain had 45 regional savings banks a few years ago, there are only 13 today, and even their future is uncertain.

    This has become a huge problem, contributing to rising unemployment in Spain and Italy. The credit crunch has also reduced tax revenues, making it harder for the peripheral countries to bring their deficits down to manageable levels.

    On Thursday, the ECB, the central bank for countries using the euro, swooped in, cutting the main refinancing rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.50%. The move came after a series of data released during the past two weeks suggested that the eurozone's economy shrank for the sixth quarter in a row at the start of 2013. Unemployment rose to 12.1%, while inflation fell to 1.2% in April -- well below the ECB's medium-term target of just under 2%.

    While the central bank's rate cut should provide troubled banks in the region's periphery with some much-needed support, it won't be enough to drag the eurozone out of recession on its own, says Paul Ashworth, economist at the consultancy Capital Economics.

    "We had hoped that the bank might announce looser collateral criteria or other measures to stimulate lending, particularly to SMEs," Ashworth notes to clients.

    To be sure, ECB President Mario Draghi has indicated the central bank may do more to keep the eurozone from falling even deeper into recession. This includes reviving lending to businesses, but those discussions are still in the very early stages. As officials figure out a plan, experts say the central bank will need to assume more risk on its balance sheet if it wants to boost lending to SMEs.

    How this could be done is tricky, since banks coming off the dark days of the financial crisis are still far from fully recovered and quite risk averse. There are a few options, though: The central bank could assume some of the risks by buying SME-backed securities, or certain tranches of them, says James Howat, European economist at Capital Economics. But the thought of buying less-than-investment grade assets in bulk poses bigger credit risks than the central bank may want to take on. So it may not bode well with some members.

    A less politically challenging route, perhaps, could be where either the European Investment Bank or the European Commission provides a guarantee or some form of financial cushion against losses from at least parts of the loans, says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The point is that how low interest rates fall won't matter as much as any real efforts to directly boost lending to SMEs.