叙利亚：战火围城中的经济帐

    叙利亚内战已经导致70,000多人丧生。上周，它又增添了一大罪状。在政府军与反对派武装的一次冲突中，奥马雅清真寺（Umayyad mosque）的尖塔轰然倒塌。据报道，它是被坦克炮弹击中而毁，而数世纪以来，这座尖塔一直是阿勒颇天际线上一道亮丽的风景。

    你可能也听到了几英里外，在呼啸的子弹声和隆隆的迫击炮声中阿勒颇市中心这座尖塔轰然倒塌的巨响，而这里的居民生活仍维持着表面上的正常生活。广受欢迎的黎巴嫩啤酒Almaza的价格已经大幅飙升，但酒吧仍满座。年轻人依旧在大街上嬉笑打闹。不停电的时候，依然能看到HBO。

    “如果因为害怕就一直待在家里，你会疯掉的，”一名要求匿名的叙利亚男性表示。他说，上世纪80年代贝鲁特陷入战乱时，很多叙利亚人听说黎巴嫩人在整座城市变成一片废墟时仍出入夜总会时，总是嘲笑不已。“但现在，在阿勒颇，女人们还是在做指甲和头发。我们上咖啡馆。我们抽水烟。饭店内也满座......虽然这么做有些负罪感。因为几公里之外，有人正在死去。”

    维持正常生活的意愿符合围城经济逻辑。随着在阿勒颇的战斗持续，资源流向已经调整为如何满足城内的生活需要，而且开始有利于反对派一方。

阿勒颇的困境

    阿勒颇坐落在叙利亚最北部，临近土耳其边境，是叙利亚最大的城市（人口400万），也是叙利亚的经济中心。2011年初爆发内战之前的十年，这个城市经历了一轮经济繁荣。自由市场改革催生了商业精英，这些人中很多都与叙利亚总统巴沙尔•阿萨德的统治阶层有关联。失业率下降。房价上涨，部分是由于伊拉克难民的流入导致住房供应紧张。

    或许是由于经济形势不错，阿勒颇没有立即卷入政府军与反对派的冲突中。阿勒颇的基督徒和土库曼人不想被拖入执政的阿拉维派与对立的逊尼派之间的争斗中。因此，席卷霍姆斯和德拉的街头抗议一开始并没有在阿勒颇出现。

    所有这些在2012年7月都变了。当时，由军方叛逃者领导的反对武装——叙利亚自由军（Free Syrian Army)对政府控制的重镇阿勒颇展开大规模攻击。很多分析都将阿勒颇视为叙利亚政府存亡之关键，为此政府派出了成千上万的援军来坚守市中心和反击反政府武装。

    从去年夏季开始，阿勒颇外围已变成了一个狙击手出没、布满地雷的战场。数十万人逃离。难民们涌入市中心，依靠由耶稣会（Jesuits）等运营的慈善机构。观察人士警告，当地可能会出现人道主义危机。

    时至今日，战争仍在持续。政府军飞机时常低空扫射反政府武装控制的地区。库尔德人这样的少数民族也已组织起自己的武装力量。坦克在大街上逡巡。阿勒颇的中世纪城堡及其所在的、具有战略意义的山头也再一次驻扎上了军队。

    经过数月的战斗，反政府武装已取得了上风。如今，反对派已经包围了政府控制的市中心，切断了来自大马士革的后续增援。

    Last week, the war in Syria, which has killed more than 70,000 people, claimed another prominent victim. During a clash between regime and opposition troops, the minaret of Aleppo's ancient Umayyad mosque -- for centuries the most striking feature of the city's skyline -- tumbled, reportedly brought down by a tank shell.

    You could have heard the minaret falling miles away in Aleppo's city center, where, against a backdrop of gunfire and the whump of mortars, residents maintain an improbable veneer of normalcy. While the price of Almaza, a popular Lebanese beer, has skyrocketed, bars are full. Young people flirt in the street. When the power's on, you can still get HBO.

    "If you stay in your house because you're scared, you'll go crazy," said one Syrian man who requested anonymity. He said when war embroiled Beirut in the 1980s, Syrians used to laugh after they heard stories of the Lebanese going to nightclubs while the city around them was ground to rubble. "But now, here in Aleppo, women are getting manicures and doing their hair. We go to cafés. We smoke shisha. The restaurants are very crowded ... It feels guilty, though. A few kilometers away, people are dying."

    The will to carry on a normal life fits the economic logic of the siege. As the fighting in Aleppo drags on, resource flows have adapted to accommodate life inside -- and to support the opposition forces vying for control.

Aleppo's plight

    Located in the far north, near the Turkish border, Aleppo is Syria's largest city (population: 4 million) and the country's economic capital. In the decade before the civil war, which broke out in early 2011, the city enjoyed an economic boom. Liberal market reforms boosted the business elite, many of whom have ties to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Unemployment dropped. And property prices climbed, partly due to housing supply pressures from an influx of Iraqi refugees.

    Perhaps because times were good, Aleppo was not immediately embroiled in the conflict. The city's Christians and Turkmen did not want to be dragged into a fight between the regime's Alawites and the opposition's Sunnis. So the city did not initially witness the street protests that shook Homs and Daraa.

    All of that changed in July, 2012, when the Free Syrian Army (FSA), an opposition group led by military defectors, launched a large-scale attack on the regime stronghold of Aleppo. Many analysts consider Aleppo a linchpin for the Syrian regime, which sent thousands of reinforcements to hold the city center and beat back the rebels.

    Starting last summer, Aleppo's outskirts became sniper-haunted battlefields, stippled with mines. Hundreds of thousands fled. Refugees crowded the city center and now depend on charities, like those operated by the Jesuits. Observers warned of a humanitarian crisis.

    Today, the fighting continues. Regime aircraft strafe rebel-controlled neighborhoods. Ethnic minorities, like the Kurds, have organized their own militias. Tanks sweep the streets. The medieval citadel of Aleppo, and the strategic hilltop on which it sits, once again houses troops.

    Yet after months of fighting, the rebels have the momentum. Opposition units now encircle the regime-controlled city center, cutting off further reinforcements from Damascus.