特斯拉价格保卫战

    上周三，特斯拉汽车公司（Tesla Motors）发布了第一季度财报，引起了不小的轰动。不过这家豪华电动汽车制造商正继续遭到抨击。

    美国政府为特斯拉汽车的买家提供7500美元的税收减免，不过面对超过7万美元的特斯拉S型车，只有富人才享受得起这一优惠。美国能源部还给这家位于加州帕洛阿尔托的公司4.65亿美元的贷款担保，这样做相当于补贴了富有的特斯拉车主，却将纳税人的钱财置于危险之中，也就难怪许多人对政府的“补贴富人购车”政策表示愤怒。

    尽管如此，事实在于，将特斯拉卖给富人，也许是将来普及电动汽车的最好方式，也是美国摆脱对石油依赖的最好办法，这背后蕴含着国家安全和经济利益的因素。

    国内石油产量的增加，让美国经济收益颇丰。但美国耗油量太大，使得国家在原油价格面前脆弱不堪。由于生物燃料和燃料电池的发展步履蹒跚，电动汽车也许是最好的解决方法之一。

    不过电动汽车也面临着大量的艰难困阻。它们缺乏传统汽车拥有的规模经济和性能记录，也没有因为一百多年的市场竞争而使技术成本下降的经验。尽管实验室里的研究人员也许能实现技术上的重大突破，但若想让更多电动汽车驶上马路，还要解决如何高效地批量生产、如何拓展新的营销渠道、如何构建充电站网络以免车主燃料耗尽等关键问题。

    尽管如此，这些早期的车辆将成为利基市场的一部分，且以高价售卖。富人们自然成为其目标消费群体。

    以移动电话为例。摩托罗拉（Motorola）1982年发布的DynaTAC 8000X售价3995美元（相当于今天的近1万美元）。在1987年的电影《华尔街》（Wall Street）中，手持这部巨大手机的戈登•杰科代表了手机用户的普遍形象：富有、傲慢、无礼。到了1998年，诺基亚（Nokia）6160（20世纪90年代最流行的手机款式）价格为900美元，依然让大多数顾客望而却步。直到21世纪以来，手机行业实现了突飞猛进的进步，才不再被当作奢侈品，价格便宜到能让普通大众接受。

    手机花了20年左右的时间，从高端产品市场来到大众市场，而它本身也发生了改变。最初的摩托罗拉DynaTAC长逾一英寸，重逾两磅，电池仅能支持一个小时；而如今，你花上20美元，就能买到比你手掌还小、重量只有两盎司的手机。

    Tesla Motors made news last Wednesday when it posted its first quarterly profit. But the maker of luxury electric vehicles continues to come under fire.

    The U.S. government gives a $7,500 tax credit to anyone who buys one of its cars, but at more than $70,000 for a Model S sedan, only the rich can afford to benefit. The Department of Energy has also provided the Palo Alto, Calif.-based company with a $465 million loan guarantee, which boosts returns for Tesla's wealthy owners while putting taxpayers' money at risk. No wonder many are furious with Washington for "subsidizing cools cars for rich people."

    The truth, though, is that selling Teslas (TSLA) to wealthy people today may be the best way to get electric cars to everyone tomorrow, and for the United States to eventually reduce its dependence on oil, with all the national security and economic benefits that entails.

    The U.S. economy is making big gains as domestic oil production rises, but high U.S. oil use leaves the nation vulnerable to dangerous spikes in the price of crude. With biofuels and fuel cells both faltering, electric cars may be one of the best ways out.

    But electric cars face a massive uphill battle. They lack the economies of scale and track record that traditional cars enjoy. They don't have the hundred-plus years of experience that's allowed their competitors to bring technology costs down. And while some big advances will come from people tinkering in labs, getting more electric cars onto the road is essential to figuring out how to manufacture lots of them efficiently, develop new ways to finance sales, and engineer networks of charging stations so that drivers don't run out of fuel.

    Those initial cars, though, will be part of a niche market and come at a premium price. And the wealthy are a natural target market.

    Take the cellular telephone. The Motorola DynaTAC 8000X, released in 1982, sold for $3,995 (equivalent to nearly $10,000 today). Gordon Gecko, who carried one of the behemoths around in the 1987 movie Wall Street, typified the cell phone user: rich, arrogant, brash. As late as 1998, the Nokia 6160 (the most popular cell phone model of the 1990s) sold for $900, well beyond the reach of most consumers. It was not until the 2000s that cell phones, which improved dramatically while they were considered a luxury good, became cheap enough for mass adoption.

    During the 20 or so years that it took the cell phone to move from high-end product to mass market, the phones themselves transformed too. The DynaTAC was more than a foot long, weighed over two pounds, and had a one-hour battery life; today, you can buy a two-ounce phone that's smaller than your palm for $20.