电子商务拉动中国内需

    就像发展中国家并不宽裕的消费者直接越过固定电话，“一步到位”地选择了移动电话一样，中国的低收入消费者正跳过实体商店，成为电子商务网站的拥趸。

    麦肯锡公司（McKinsey & Co.）最近发布的一份报告显示，中国去年的电商销售额估计达到了1900亿美元，几乎与全球最大的电商市场——美国齐平。到2020年，中国的在线零售市场有望至少增长至4200亿美元，届时将超过美、日、英、德、法五国电商市场的总和。就在今年或者明年，中国预计就将超过美国成为全球最大的电子商务市场。

    在一个以不可思议的速度增长的经济体中，电子商务也不容忽视。自2003年以来，中国的电商市场以每年120%的速度增长，远远高于美国17%的年增率，而且这一增长还没有停止的迹象。

    令麦肯锡公司感兴趣的不仅仅是中国电商市场的巨额增幅，除此之外，电子商务或将推动实现中国政府提出的两大经济目标：增加国内消费以及促进中国经济从依赖基建向多样化发展。在这篇题为《中国的电商革命》（China's E-tail Revolution）的报告中，作者指出，这不仅仅意味着消费者的购物场所发生了转变，商场购物正在被取代。电子商务还驱动消费者开始购买新物品，特别是在一些欠发达的低收入城市，因为这些城市即便有大型零售门店，它们的商品也无法与在线商店的相媲美。

    总部位于北京的当当网（Dangdang）是一家与亚马逊中国（Amazon China）相竞争的电商网站，当当网的创始人俞渝表示：“中国仍然是一个零售业很不发达的国家，而且消费者的需求总体上是很强劲的。我住在北京市中心，不管朝任何一个方向开车，一个小时之后，我还在北京市里，但是我看不见好的商店了，不管是好的超市还是好的服装店都看不到了。”

    超过70%的中国电子商务网站采取的是C2C模式。中国也有像eBay一样的拍卖网站，比如淘宝（Taobao）、天猫（Tmall）和拍拍（Paipai），这些网站上有好几亿件商品。有些电商网站想成为中国的亚马逊，比如京东商城（360Buy），它们正在二线城市建立运营机构，而且分析师认为他们最终将进军三、四线城市。

    尽管很多电商网站的下单都是通过智能手机或移动应用完成的，但是货物的递送流程却采用了高科技与传统相结合的方式——而且还非常适合中国消费者。比如京东商城的当日送达（取决于下单的时间）通常就是靠骑车的快递小哥来送货。

    很多小城市的消费者喜欢货到付款，这样做的好处是，顾客可以利用某些电商网站推出的“现场试穿”服务，在付钱之前先把网购来的东西试一下。

    麦肯锡的报告中还有一点很让人吃惊：中国低收入城市消费者的网购支出与高收入城市消费者相差无几，尽管他们的可支配收入要比后者低得多。在一些偏远地区的中小城市，电子商务网站在扮演着“启蒙者”的角色，许多消费者第一次可以随心所欲地购买书籍、电影、服装和其它商品。

    这意味着那些在网络上购买新产品的低收入消费者，正在发挥越来越大的力量，推动着国民经济前进——尽管有人可能怀疑中国究竟能否转型成一个消费型经济体。对于中国来说，如果中国能变成全世界的电子商务之都，这可能就是最好的消息。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    Just as cash-strapped consumers in the developing world bypassed so-called landline phones in favor of mobile devices, so China's lower-income consumers are skipping physical stores in favor of e-commerce sites.

    A recent report by McKinsey & Co. shows that e-commerce sales in China reached an estimated $190 billion last year, almost equaling the U.S. market as largest in the world. China's online retail industry is expected to grow to at least $420 billion by 2020 -- which would total more than the U.S., Japanese, U.K., German, and French markets combined. China will overtake the U.S. for the top spot next year, if it hasn't already.

    In an economy known for astonishing growth, e-commerce stands out. China's market has grown at a 120% annualized clip since 2003 compared to the U.S.'s 17% growth rate. It shows no signs of stopping.

    What interests McKinsey isn't just the massive growth -- it's the potential for e-commerce to drive the government's goal of increasing domestic consumption and diversifying the world's No. 2 economy from a reliance on infrastructure projects. The authors of the report, titled "China's E-tail Revolution," conclude that consumers are more than replacing what they might buy at the mall. E-commerce is driving consumers to buy new stuff, especially in the so-called lower-tier, lower-income cities where physical retail stores, if they exist at all, don't have anywhere near the same selection as online marketplaces.

    "China remains an under-retailed country, and customers' needs are very strong overall," says Peggy Yu Yu, co-founder of Dangdang, a Beijing-based e-commerce site that competes with Amazon China. "I live [in] downtown Beijing, and I drive any direction, and one hour later, still within Beijing, I don't see good stores anymore, be it supermarket or clothing store."

    More than 70% of China's e-commerce business is consumer to consumer. eBay-like (EBAY) auction sites called Taobao, Tmall, and Paipai host hundreds of millions of listings. But Amazon (AMZN) wannabes such as 360Buy are setting up operations in second-tier cities, and analysts believe they'll eventually start moving into third- and fourth-tier cities.

    While the ordering process on many e-commerce sites is done via mobile phones and apps, distribution is often a combination of high-tech and old-fashioned customers service -- which suits Chinese consumers just fine. 360buy, for example, offers same-day delivery (depending on when the order is placed) often via bike messenger.

    Consumers in smaller cities like to pay via cash on delivery; one upside is that the customer can try on their wares before making payment, employing what's been called the "mobile fitting room" option.

    What's surprising in the McKinsey report is that consumers in China's lower-tier cities actually spend as much online as higher-tier cities even though their consumers have far less disposable income. In the small and mid-size cities dotting the countryside, e-commerce sites are proving a revelation. Many consumers can now buy books, movies, clothes, and other goods for the first time.

    That means lower-income consumers who shop for newly available goods online are increasingly propelling the economy forward, even as some are skeptical that China can transition into a consumption economy. For China, as it becomes the e-commerce capital of the world, that might be the best news of all.