贝宝老总缘何看好比特币

    在贝宝（PayPal）总裁大卫•马库斯看来，钱包即将被淘汰。所以，问题不在于它们“是否”会出局，而是在于它们“何时”将出局。

    简单点说，贝宝公司本周发布的一项研究显示，在来自五个国家（其中包括美国）的受访者中，有83％的人表示，不愿随身携带钱包；如果要做出取舍，有29％的美国受访者表示，假如出门时只能带一样东西，自己将选择智能手机，而不是钱包。不出所料，上述发现完全吻合贝宝的战略，其中包括将其支付服务扩展到实体零售店中。马库斯估计，到今年年底，美国将有200万家商铺接受贝宝作为付款方式。【另外，还有700万家美国商店与美国发现金融服务公司（Discover）达成协议，将于今年开始接受贝宝支付卡。】

    考虑到扩张速度，马库斯预测，许多美国人——至少贝宝1.1亿多活跃用户中的一小部分——将在一年半到两年后不再需要钱包。“美国约有900万家商铺接受信用卡，但真正重要的商铺也就500万家，”马库斯本周告诉《财富》杂志（Fortune ）。到2013年底，这些商铺中将有近一半支持贝宝。“我们需要搞定另外那些商铺，这样我们基本就覆盖了人们想用贝宝的所有地方。”

    除了淘汰钱包外，马库斯眼下关注的还有数字货币，其中最热门的便是比特币（Bitcoin）。比特币是一种合成货币，由一位化名中本聪的程序员于2009年发明，目前未受监管，而且只在网上使用。由于它的兑换率波动很大——今年2月一个比特币价值20美元，而到四月初，它的价值已经飙升至230美元，加之人们担心它被用于非法活动，比特币在近几个月来倍受争议。

    The way PayPal President David Marcus sees it, wallets are on the way out. The question isn't "if" they become antiquated, but instead "when."

    To wit, the payments company released a study this week that revealed that 83% of people polled in five countries, including the U.S., wished they didn't have to tote their wallets around, and if made to choose, 29% of Americans said they would choose their smartphone over their wallet if they could bring one item when going out. Unsurprisingly, those findings align nicely with PayPal's (EBAY) strategy, which includes the expansion of its payments services in physical retail stores. By the end of the year, Marcus estimates PayPal can be used as a form of payment in 2 million U.S. locations. (This figure excludes the 7 million domestic stores that will be able to accept a PayPal payment card this year as part of an agreement with Discover (DFS).)

    Given the rate of expansion, Marcus predicts many Americans -- or at least a fraction of PayPal's 110 million-plus active users -- will be able to go wallet-less within the next 18-24 months. "There are roughly 9 million places in the U.S. that accept credit cards, but there are really 5 million that matter," he pointed out to Fortune this week. And by the end of 2013, PayPal will be supported in just under half of that. "Then there's another half that we need to get to basically be at every place you want to be."

    Besides going wallet-less, something else occupying Marcus's mind nowadays is digital currency, the most popular of which right now is Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is an unregulated, online-only, synthetic currency created in 2009 by a programmer known only by the nom de guerre Satoshi Nakamoto. Controversy has followed Bitcoin in recent months thanks to volatile exchange rates -- one Bitcoin was worth $20 this February and was worth $230 by early April -- and concerns that the currency is being used for illegal activities.