三问通用汽车

    有时候，研究通用汽车（General Motors）的运营方式就像研究那些无比复杂的陀飞轮机械手表。通用汽车就像一款做工精良的钟表，拥有许多活动部件，其中很多并不为人所知，其中的奥秘就是把摆轮和游丝这两项运行的关键与那些仅作为装饰、甚至干扰运行的部件分开。

    今年五月，喷泉般涌出的新闻足以让通用的观察者们进行比较、分析和评估。从一年前开始，通用的销量和利润就开始下滑，但股价却一路攀升，近两年来首次超过首次公开募股时的33美元。通用的销量在美国有所上升，在中国大幅上升，而在欧洲却有所下降。北美正在准备盛大的新型卡车发布会，但却额外雇佣了工人，同时推迟了日期，以保证不会出现任何差错。在流行的投资者网站Seeking Alpha上，爱放马后炮的用户对这家汽车制造商的前景有着截然不同的观点。一个帖子的标题写道：“通用汽车继续高奏凯歌”。另一个帖子则说：“通用汽车：糟糕的赌注”。

    我们先来看看好消息。在美国市场，通用在四月份和今年前四个月的占有率都有所上升。别克（Buick）和凯迪拉克（Cadillac）生产线上增加了利润丰厚的新款轿车，带动了通用销量的回升，两系汽车销量分别提高了23%和37%。通用还在为公司史上最大的新产品之一进行运作，先是替换了公司的全尺寸小货车Silverado和Sierra，之后是公司的大型运动汽车。通用总共61%的产品线都将在接下来两年改为生产新产品，经销商因此而兴奋不已，也大大促进了盈利。

    另一方面，通用在福特汽车（Ford）面前节节败退。2013年，后者在美国的市场占有率略有提升，而第一季度的净收入增长了60%。通用用来吸引年轻顾客并满足政府燃油标准的雪佛兰汽车（Chevrolet）销量却下滑了，大肆宣传的伏特汽车（Volt）的增长速度比去年不如。《汽车新闻》（Automotive News ）报道称，通用极其关注将要发布的卡车，甚至回聘了约100名退休工程师来监督供应商的工作，还将越野车的展示活动推迟了三个月。

    欧洲市场依然不景气。欧宝（Opel）/沃克斯豪尔（Vauxhall）的市场占有率有所提升，因为它们在四月的销量下滑幅度要小于6%的市场整体水平。雪佛兰的销量则大幅跳水，跌幅达到27%。底特律新闻报道称，分析人士认为，2016年之前，通用在欧洲市场的表现都不会有整体上的改善。通用计划在接下来三年内向欧宝投资52.5亿美元，不过欧宝在欧洲顾客中的影响力仍然遭到质疑，而通用能否从与标致（Peugeot）的被迫合作中获得回报也得打个问号。

    通用在中国的销量超过美国，中国继续成为它在全球的亮点，四月份销量也上升15%。尽管中国白热化的经济增长已经有了减慢的征兆，通用依然计划2016年之前在中国投资160亿美元，并在不久前宣布将在上海建设新的卡迪拉克工厂，作为在接下来30个月内将卡迪拉克销量增至三倍计划的一部分。同样令人振奋的是，通用还在中国政府的政策上有所突破。中国政府本打算取消对国外汽车制造商的投资刺激，这一政策最终却并未施行，给了通用汽车更大的施展空间。

    At times, examining the operations of General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) is like looking into of one of those insanely complicated tourbillon mechanical watches. Like a fine timepiece, GM has lots of moving pieces, many of them out of sight. The trick is to separate the balance wheel and hairspring -- parts that are essential to the operation -- from others that are merely decorative, or, at worst, distractions.

    The month of May produced a geyser of news for GM watchers to assimilate, analyze, and evaluate. Sales and earnings were down from a year ago, but share prices were up -- climbing above the $33 IPO price for the first time in two years. Sales were higher in the U.S. and much higher in China but lower in Europe. North America was preparing for a monster launch of new truck models but brought on extra workers and stretched out schedules to make sure there are no screw-ups. Second-guessers on the popular investor site Seeking Alpha are sharply divided about the automaker's prospects. "General Motors continues to roll" is the headline on one posting. Another reads: "General Motors: A Sucker's Bet."

    Let's focus first on the good news. In the U.S., GM gained market share in April and for the first four months of the year. Its sales resurgence is being led by new high-margin vehicles added to the Buick and Cadillac lines, which are up 23% and 37% respectively. GM is also mobilizing for one of the biggest new product introductions in its history, replacing first its full-size pickup trucks Silverado and Sierra, and then its big sport utilities. In all, 61% of GM's product line will turn over in the next two years, exciting dealers and giving a big boost to profits.

    On the other hand, GM is losing ground to Ford (F, Fortune 500), which has gained slightly more U.S. share in 2013 and earned 60% more in corporate net income during the first quarter. Sales of Chevrolet cars, the ones GM needs to attract younger buyers and meet government fuel economy standards, have sagged, and the much-heralded Volt is moving at a rate even slower than last year. Automotive News reports that GM is so concerned about its upcoming truck launch that it has hired back about 100 retired engineers to monitor the work of suppliers and delayed the rollout of the SUVs by three months.

    Europe remains a sinkhole. Opel/Vauxhall gained share because it lost fewer sales than an overall market that was down 6% in April , but Chevrolet got shellacked, with sales that fell 27%, and the Detroit News reports that analysts see no overall improvement in the European market until 2016. GM plans to invest $5.25 billion in Opel over the next three years, but doubts remain about the resonance of the Opel brand with European customers, as well as the eventual payoff from GM's shotgun marriage with Peugeot.

    China, where GM sells more cars than in the U.S., remains a bright spot, with sales in April rising 15%. Ignoring signs of a slowdown in China's white-hot economy, GM plans to invest $16 billion in China by 2016, and has just announced it will build a new Cadillac plant in Shanghai as part of a plan to triple Cadillac sales in the next 30 months. Equally encouraging, GM is getting some breaks from the Chinese government. It has reversed a policy that would have discontinued investment incentives for foreign automotive manufacturers, giving GM more room to maneuver.