微软借云重振中国市场希望渺茫

    微软公司（Microsoft）正准备在中国市场上卷土重来。尽管要在这个市场上挣钱一直让人煞费苦心，但这家全球最大的软件巨头还是希望凭借在云计算和移动设备上的两大技术突破，再分一杯羹。不过这次要想再挣上一笔可能就没那么容易了。

    微软将于6月在中国正式推出云平台Windows Azure，这是它与世纪互联公司（21ViaNet）合作的结晶。按照双方协议，世纪互联将从客户身上赚取收益，再按一定比例分给微软。由于中国严格限制外国公司提供“增值电信”服务，导致多数外企只得与本地公司建立合作关系。

    上周，微软首席执行官斯蒂夫•鲍尔默称，为了推出这个平台和智能手机，微软将在中国新招上千名员工。目前微软在中国的员工总数约为四千人。

    中国一直是微软的盗版重灾区，很多人都在使用微软的产品，但很少有人掏钱。

    微软创始人比尔•盖茨曾经发表过一个有名的高见：宁可看到中国用户偷用他的产品，也不愿让其他人染指，结果中国用户真的欣然照办。2011年鲍尔默曾抱怨称，微软在中国的收入甚至还不及荷兰——不过自从微软开始向中兴通讯（ZTE）这类智能手机厂商征收专利费后，这种局面就有所改观了。据商业软件联盟（Business Software Alliance）称，按价格估算，2011年有77%的软件遭到盗版，而据估计，非法软件市场的市值高达90亿美元。

    云和移动服务可能会是破解这个难题的良药。Windows Azure是企业的云计算平台，将于六月正式推出。云可让企业和开发者在第三方服务器、而不是本地PC上存储数据和软件，由此盗版将不再像现在这样严重。而在移动领域，手机厂商将预装操作系统，将强化对使用对象及使用内容的控制。

    不过微软仍面临激烈竞争。已拥有中国电子商务市场80%份额的阿里巴巴公司（Alibaba）极有希望推出自己的云计算服务。尽管据弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester）称，到2020年，“公有云”服务的收入将达到38亿美元，但这个数字却还不到商业软件联盟所预估的中国盗版软件市场总值的一半。而在移动领域，谷歌公司（Google）的Android操作系统早已占据主导地位。

    微软也许能躲过盗版这个陷阱，但却未必能摆脱政治上的麻烦。外企是不允许自行提供“增值电信”服务的，所以微软必须与一家本地企业分享云服务收入。由于云计算在中国政府的“十二五”计划中占有重要位置，因此这个市场很可能会靠照顾本国企业发展起来。因此，微软想把中国市场变成重要收入来源的希望显得很渺茫。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    Microsoft is staging a comeback in China. The world's biggest software maker hopes to use the twin technological disruptions of cloud computing and mobile devices to get a second bite of a market where profit has proved elusive. Yet the financial benefits may be no easier to grasp the second time round.

    Microsoft is due to launch Windows Azure, its cloud computing platform, in China in June, in partnership with local company 21ViaNet. Under the agreement, 21ViaNet would collect client revenues and pass a percentage on to Microsoft. China restricts foreign companies' ability to offer "value added telecoms" services, leading most to partner with local players.

    The software giant plans to hire thousands of new employees in China for the launch and for the roll-out of smartphones, chief executive Steve Ballmer said last week. Microsoft currently has a workforce in the country of around 4,000.

    China has been a piracy trap for Microsoft: many use its products, but few pay.

    Founder Bill Gates famously argued that he would rather see Chinese users steal his products than someone else's, and they took him at his word. In 2011 Ballmer complained that Microsoft (MSFT) generates less revenue in China than in the Netherlands -- though that will have changed since Microsoft started charging smartphone makers like ZTE patent fees. According to the Business Software Alliance, 77% of software by value was pirated in 2011, based on an estimated illegal software market worth $9 billion.

    Cloud and mobile services may provide an antidote. Windows Azure, the company's cloud computing platform, is set to launch in June, and the hope is that piracy will be less of a problem in the cloud, where companies and developers store data and software on third-party servers rather than local PCs. In mobile, operating systems tend to be pre-installed by handset manufacturers, which creates tighter control over who's using what.

    Yet competition is fierce. Alibaba, which already handles over 80% of online commerce, has high hopes for its own cloud computing service. While revenues from "public cloud" services are set to grow to $3.8 billion by 2020, according to Forrester, that's still less than half the Business Software Alliance's estimate of the Chinese market for illegal software. As for mobile, the industry is dominated by versions of Google's Android operating system.

    Microsoft may also escape the piracy trap only to fall into a political one. Foreigners aren't allowed to offer "value-added telecoms" by themselves, so Microsoft must share its cloud revenue with a local partner. Since cloud computing features in the Chinese government's current five-year plan, the market is likely to develop in ways that favour local players. That makes Microsoft's chances of turning China into a big source of revenue look pretty nebulous.