日本太阳能产业直追中国

    不久以前，可再生能源发电在日本总发电量中的占比还不到1%。但继福岛核危机和随后大范围停电后，日本在可替代能源领域的投资呈现出爆炸式增长。特别是太阳能，在这个光照充裕的国家，最近出现了翻天覆地的增长，看上去今年日本就有望继中国之后成为全球最大的太阳能市场。

    根据能源研究机构IHS对日本能源构成的一份研究报告显示，日本光伏发电装机容量（按千兆瓦计）“在2013年一季度惊人地跃升了270%”。它意味着截至2013年底，日本拥有的新光伏发电装机容量将相当于7座核反应堆。如此大幅度的增长有望在2013年推动日本赶超德国，成为全球按收入计最大的光伏市场。

    “预计2013年日本将安装价值200亿美元的光伏系统，较2012年的110亿美元激增了82%，”IHS表示。“相比之下，全球市场预计将仅微增4%。今年，日本光伏市场收入强劲增长部分是受到了日本的太阳能高电价推动。”不过，德国在装机总数和装机容量（32,192千兆瓦）方面仍保持领先。根据总部位于伦敦的彭博新能源财经(BNEF)的数据，日本目前装机总容量为7,429千兆瓦，更接近美国的8,069千兆瓦。

    日本太阳能占据主导地位是得益于日本政府为可再生能源制造商提供的激励措施，以及要求公共电力公司以高于市场价格购买可再生能源发电的规定。上届日本政府制订了一揽子措施，竭力摆脱日本对石油和核能的依赖，促成了对可再生能源发电实施非常慷慨的政府电力收购制度（FIT）。

    从去年7月开始，日本光伏收购电价为每千瓦时42日元，今年4月调低至37.8日元（约39美分），日本的光伏收购电价是中国和德国的两倍还多。

    日本地形多山且沿海水深，使得陆上和海上风力发电项目丧失了吸引力。因此，当前太阳能成为了最佳的选择——自去年7月以来，太阳能项目占到了所有申请清洁能源电价项目的94%。

    日本能源经济研究所（Institute of Energy Economics）的久司保志（音译）表示，投资者已经看到了这个趋势。“虽然日本可利用的土地短缺，很多拥有闲置土地的公司已蜂拥而至。他们利用这些原本打算用于业务扩张（扩张迟迟没有到来）的地块架起太阳能电池板，以相当不错的利润将发出的电卖给电力公司，从中赚钱。”

    日本西部上个月投运的一家26.5千兆瓦太阳能发电厂非常具有代表性，它的建设用地很典型，是一家闲置的工厂厂址。这个发电厂足以为9,000个家庭提供电力。久司保志称，甚至上世纪80年代经济泡沫时期被封存的高尔夫球场现在也被征用了。

    他说：“异常慷慨的FIT政策使得这一业务非常有利可图。投资者争相申请项目，特别是大型太阳能项目。此类项目在最近日本光伏领域的大幅增长中占据主导地位。”

    Until recently less than 1% of Japan's electrical power output came from renewables. But following the catastrophe of Fukushima and the power blackouts that followed, Japan has seen an explosion in investment in alternatives. Solar, in particular, in this averagely photon-blessed country, has seen a seismic rise of late and is this year poised to become the world's largest solar market in volume after China.

    According to a report by energy analyst IHS on Japan's energy mix, Japan's solar installations jumped by "a stunning 270% (in gigawatts) in the first quarter of 2013." That means by the end of 2013 there will be enough new solar panels equal to the capacity of seven nuclear reactors. Such massive growth will allow Japan to surpass Germany and become the world's largest photovoltaics (PV) market in terms of revenue this year.

    "Japan is forecast to install $20 billion worth of PV systems in 2013, up 82% from $11 billion in 2012," IHS said. "In contrast, the global market is set for tepid 4% growth. The strong revenue performance for Japan this year is partly driven by the high solar prices in the country." Germany still leads with the total number of units and capacity, however, with its 32,192 megawatts. Japan is now closer to the U.S.'s 8,069 megawatts at 7,429 megawatts, according to London-based BNEF.

    olar energy in Japan has come to dominate thanks to government incentives now offered to the producers of renewables and rules which require public power utilities to buy alternative power at above-market rates. A deal forged by the last government desperate to wean Japan from its addiction to oil and nuclear power led to the implementation of a very generous feed-in tariff (FIT) for renewable power generators.

    Starting at 42 yen per kilowatt hour last July and now reduced in April to 37.8 yen (39 cents) the FIT is more than twice those of Chinese and German offerings.

    A mountainous landscape and deep seas make on- and off-shore wind farms unattractive ventures. So solar, for the moment, is the best bet -- accounting for 94% of all applications for clean energy tariffs since July.

    Investors saw it coming says Hisashi Hoshi of the Institute of Energy Economics. "Despite a shortage of available land in Japan, many corporations who had unused land have rushed in. They can now exploit those plots, once earmarked for expansion that never came, to make money by building solar panels and selling on that energy to the utility companies at a good profit."

    A 26.5 gigawatt solar power plant in western Japan, enough to power 9,000 households, opened last month, typically built on an unused factory site. Even mothballed golf courses from the '80s bubble years are being pressed into productive service, says Hoshi.

    "The ridiculously generous FIT is allowing for a very a lucrative business. It's brought investors scurrying to apply especially for the so-called mega solar projects. Such projects make up the bulk of the vast increase of PV seen in Japan recently," he says.