微软Xbox未战先输

    如果有人质疑群众的力量，看看微软（Microsoft）眼下的处境就明白了。

    这家科技巨头的态度突然出现逆转，修改了即将上市的Xbox One游戏机中部分引发争议的功能。面对网上激烈的批评，公司放弃了用于阻止用户离线玩游戏以及限制销售二手游戏的要求。微软娱乐业务总裁唐•马特里克于6月19日在Xbox.com上对游戏玩家们发表声明称：“大家有多么喜欢光盘游戏所带来的灵活性，这一点我们已经知晓。大家需要自行决定出租、分享和转售这些游戏，这对于你们非常重要。当然，对于你们而言，在世界上任何一个地方、任意玩转离线游戏的自由也是至关重要的。”

    韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）视频游戏分析师迈克尔•帕切尔表示，他认为微软不仅做了正确的事情，也选择了正确的时机。帕切尔说：“微软在E3大会上的惨败令它受到严重影响，我认为他们真的想做正确的事情。‘永远在线’要求的出发点，是为了提供对游戏的即时访问，可以在玩游戏、看电视、聊Skype和上网之间快速切换。但要想实现这一点，必须将游戏写入到硬盘上，进而必须确保同一个游戏并未被多次拷贝到不同的Xbox One上，于是就形成了繁琐的数字版权管理政策。”

    帕切尔认为，到今年年底，微软将在全球售出300万台Xbox Ones，明年将售出1,100万台。他认为，在下一代游戏机的市场争夺战中，索尼（Sony）将占据优势，今年它的PlayStation 4全球销量将达到300万台，而明年的销量将达到1,300万台。今年11月，下一代游戏主机发布时，供应不足和全球市场将制约销量。游戏玩家们会用话语表达自己的态度，但他们更会用自己的钱包来投票。有消息指出，上周，亚马逊（Amazon）在E3大会上进行的投票结果显示，PS4的支持率超过Xbox One一到两个百分点。

    数字世界研究（Digital World Research）的视频游戏分析师P.J.麦克尼利认为，微软迅速做出应对，值得赞扬，但它也引发了对于预购真实情况的质疑。麦克尼利称：“预购数量肯定不尽如人意。这是过去十年来微软最重要的一次产品发布。”

    市场调研机构DFC Intelligence的视频游戏分析师杰瑞米•米勒表示，表面看来，微软改变政策的做法至少能赢回消费者积极的感情，但却不会彻底扭转PS4与Xbox One的力量对比。一个原因是因为，微软游戏主机的售价仍为500美元，而索尼的设备仅为400美元。米勒说：“相比Xbox 360和Playstation 3，微软和索尼对这次新产品的功能和价值定位更加复杂。购买一台新游戏主机不仅是一笔巨大的经济投入，也是情感上的投入。树立消费者对公司产品的信心和信任比以往更加重要。微软目前的工作是，在锁定产品计划的同时，以持续、明确的方式倾听外界的期望。”

    Anyone who questions the power of the crowd need only talk to Microsoft.

    In a stunning reversal, the technology giant made an abrupt about-face on some of the controversial features of its upcoming Xbox One console. The company scrapped requirements that would have prevented users from playing offline games and made it difficult to sell used games in response to fierce online criticism. Don Mattrick, president of Microsoft's (MSFT) entertainment unit, made the announcement in a June 19 post on Xbox.com addressed to gamers: "You told us how much you loved the flexibility you have today with games delivered on disc. The ability to lend, share, and resell these games at your discretion is of incredible importance to you. Also important to you is the freedom to play offline, for any length of time, anywhere in the world."

    Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush Securities, said he not only thinks it's the right thing to do, but Microsoft is timing it well. "Microsoft was wounded by the reaction to its E3 press conference, and I think they genuinely want to do the right thing," said Pachter. "The 'always connected' requirement arose from their desire to provide instant access to games, rapid switching between games, TV, Skype, and Internet browsing, etc. However, to accomplish that, they required games to be written to the hard drive, which prompted a need to ensure that the same game wasn't copied multiple times to different Xbox Ones, hence the onerous DRM."

    Pachter believes Microsoft will sell 3 million Xbox Ones by the end of this year worldwide and another 11 million consoles next year. He gives Sony (SNE) an edge in the next-gen battle with 3 million PlayStation 4s sold this year globally and 13 million next year. Short supply and the global markets will limit sales this November when the next-gen devices launch. While gamers spoke with their voices, they also voted with their wallets. Some sources point to PS4 outselling Xbox One by a rate of two to one on Amazon (AMZN) coming out of E3 last week.

    P.J. McNealy, video game analyst for Digital World Research, believes Microsoft deserves credit for responding so quickly, but this also raises the question about what has happened with pre-orders. "Pre-order numbers couldn't have been pretty," said McNealy. "And this is the most important launch in the past 10 years for Microsoft."

    Jeremy Miller, video game analyst for DFC Intelligence, said that while on the surface this reversal should help Microsoft regain at least some positive sentiment from consumers, it won't completely shift the perceived balance of power from PS4 to Xbox One. One reason is because Microsoft is still selling its console for $500, while Sony's device costs $400. "Microsoft, and Sony for that matter, have more complicated stories to tell this time around about features and value propositions as compared to the Xbox 360/PlayStation 3 launches," said Miller. "Buying a new console can be a big financial and emotional commitment. Building confidence and trust in what your product will deliver is more important than ever. Microsoft's job now is to lock in the product plan and get the message out there in a consistent, clear way."