八大问题拷问通用

    通用汽车（General Motors）在市场咨询公司J.D. Power近期推出的新车质量排行榜（J.D. Power & Associates Initial Quality Study）上力压丰田（Toyota）、本田（Honda）和其他所有厂商，打了一个历史性的翻身仗，这在该调查27年的历史上尚属首次。在通用，小事常常会变成大事，接着酿成重大问题。而这次排名，GMC位列次席，雪佛兰（Chevrolet）排名第五，对通用来说真是难得的大好消息。在其他汽车企业那里，小事情通常都没人在意，但这可是通用，就另当别论了。

    最近我们对通用管理层抛出了一些大问题。但现在新的发展形势又呈现出新一轮的危险信号。

    General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) scored an historic coup recently when it topped Toyota, Honda, and all other automakers in the J.D. Power & Associates Initial Quality Study for the first time in the 27-year history of the survey. With GMC the second-ranked brand and Chevrolet fifth, it was a rare burst of good news for the General where little things often point to larger issues that can fester into big problems. At any other auto company, minor incidents would pass without notice, but this is GM.

    Recently we posed a few big questions for the automaker's management. But now a new wave of developments are raising another round of red flags.

1.更环保的中国

    雾霾笼罩下的石家庄宣布了一项计划，今年要将新车销量限制在10万辆，而且只允许每户家庭最多拥有两辆车。2012年，通用及其合资企业在中国的销量达到了创纪录的280万辆，比前一年增长了11.3%，并计划到2016年前的每年都推出超过10种新车或改款车。分析师担心，更多城市会由于日益严重的空气污染而限制汽车数量的增长。

    大问题：这种现状会让通用放缓雄心勃勃的中国扩张计划吗？

1. A cleaner China

    Smog-infested Shijiazhuang, China announced a plan to limit automobile sales of new vehicles to 100,000 units this year and only allow households to own at most two cars. GM and its joint ventures sold a record 2.8 million vehicles in China in 2012, up 11.3% from a year earlier, with plans to introduce more than 10 new or upgraded products each year through 2016. Analysts worry that more cities could be forced to limit the growth of automobiles due to worsening air pollution.

    The big question: Will that put a brake on your ambitious plans there?

2.中国豪车市场

    通用汽车的目标是，不断提高在中国豪车市场的份额，到2020年达到10%。中国豪车市场竞争激烈，奔驰汽车公司（Mercedes）刚刚宣布要花大力气赶上目前的市场领导者奥迪公司（Audi）和宝马公司（BMW）。奔驰全新推出的S级轿车售价将近50万美元（没错，就是这个价！），搭载了各种类似热石按摩（hot-stone massage）这类舒适配置，就是为了吸引中国那些荷包鼓鼓的买主。

    “寻找阿尔法”（Seeking Alpha，一家财富股票网——译注）引述分析师称，要实现这10%的目标，通用需要将凯迪拉克（Cadillac）目前约3万辆的年销量提高到近25万辆——也就是增长八倍！而麦肯锡公司（McKinsey）刚刚发布的一项研究预测，到2020年前，高端车每年的销售增长率将仅有12%。而现在凯迪拉克刚刚才在上海建成第一座工厂，而且正在力争年底前把经销商数量从2011年年底的69家扩大到200家。

    大问题：贵公司还有很长的路要走。为什么要为自己设定过高的目标，让任务更艰巨呢？

2. China luxury

    GM has set a goal of increasing its share of the China luxury automobile sales to 10% by 2020. The upscale car market in China is fiercely contested, and Mercedes has just announced a big push there to catch up with market leaders Audi and BMW. Its new S-class, which will sell for close to $500,000 (you heard right), is packed with amenities like hot-stone massage to appeal to well-heeled Chinese buyers.

    To reach 10%, according to analysts quoted by Seeking Alpha, GM will need to lift the number of Cadillacs it sells to close to 250,000 per year from a current level of around 30,000 -- an eightfold improvement! That's in the face of a McKinsey study that forecasts growth of upscale vehicles sales at just 12% a year through 2020. Cadillac is only now breaking ground on its first plant in Shanghai and is racing to boost the number of its dealers to 200 by the end of this year, from 69 at the end of 2011.

    The big question: You've got a long journey ahead. Why make it harder by setting stretch targets for yourself?