银行闹钱荒对中国是好事

    过去几周，中国银行业出现钱荒，搅乱了市场，投资者担心中国各银行的流动性紧缩可能进一步拖累世界第二大经济体的增长。虽然这种情况可能发生，但其实信贷紧缩对中国和世界其他地区有利。

    虽然中国的银行体系并不存在深层次的问题，但它缺乏透明度。过去几年中影子银行已经迅速崛起：银行以较低的银行同业拆借利率贷得资金，然后再出借给信托公司、保险公司、租赁公司和其他非正式贷款机构，这些公司和机构再向他人提供高风险贷款。

    一些分析人士担心，影子银行系统掩盖的高风险坏账会击垮银行，严重时甚至可能引发另一场金融危机，而谁都不希望金融危机再次上演。

    中国政府表示，宽松的货币政策将结束。周一，中国人民银行（the People's Bank of China）公开宣布称，各银行需更加审慎；多年来的宽松信贷和投机应当停下来。

    一周前，央行曾向银行发出警告，继而导致市场恐慌，全球股市急剧下跌。中国各银行现金紧缺问题显露，资金短缺导致同业拆借利率走高。

    资金短缺肯定会造成严重损害：虽然大多数经济学家并不认为这个问题会带来巨大的系统性风险，尽管它会导致一些小规模的银行破产。

    资金短缺也可能导致中国经济进一步放缓。但华尔街无需恐慌！中国经济增长放缓不一定是坏事。事实上，它可能表明，中国政府正在将经济引入正轨。

    过去的二十年里，中国经济实现了卓越的增长。与美国和其他工业化国家不同，中国经济的主要驱动力来自制造业以及道路、桥梁等大型基础设施项目投资。美国消费占经济的70%以上，而中国的消费水平较低。更何况，中国生产的大部分产品并不是用于国内消费，而是出口至世界其他地区。

    China's cash shortage has roiled markets over the past few weeks, as investors fear a liquidity squeeze across the nation's banks could further hurt growth in the world's second-largest economy. While that might likely happen, the credit crunch is actually a good thing for China and the rest of the world.

    China's banking system is opaque, if not deeply troubled. Over the years a shadow industry has quickly risen: Banks borrow from each other at low rates, then lend to a mishmash of trust companies, insurance firms, leasing companies and other informal lenders, which in turn, make riskier loans to others.

    The fear among some analysts is that such a system masks whatever risky and bad loans made -- a problem that could put banks out of business and, worst case, possibly trigger another financial crisis nobody in the world wants to relive.

    But the party of easy money may be over -- at least if you believe the Chinese government. On Monday, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, publicly announced that the country's banks needed to be more prudent; the easy lending and speculation it helped propel for years needed to end.

    Banks were warned a week earlier, which panicked markets and led to a sharp selloff in stocks worldwide. China's banks have been squeezed, and the shortage of cash sent lending rates at which banks borrow from each other way up.

    The cash crunch could certainly do some serious damage: It could cause some smaller banks to go under, although most economists don't think the problem carries huge systemic risks.

    A cash shortage could also further slow China's economy. But don't panic, Wall Street! A slower growing China may not necessarily be a bad thing. In fact, it likely signals that China's authorities are finally putting the economy on the right path.

    For the past two decades, China has seen extraordinary growth. Unlike the U.S.and other industrialized countries, China's economy has largely been driven by manufacturing and heavy spending in big infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, and the like. And unlike the U.S, where consumption makes up more than 70% of the economy, Chinese consumers don't spend nearly as much. More than that, they don't buy the bulk of what the country produces; it's sold to the rest of the world by way of exports.