下一任美联储主席最好是个生意人

    观察鸟类飞行模式的科学家告诉我们，在“V”型迁徙队伍中带头的那只鸟时而朝前看，时而朝后看。它总是在查看身后的队形，同时不断调整位置，以确保自己处在“V”字的尖上。每隔一段时间，带头的那只鸟就会飞离原来的位置，另一只鸟就会向前移动来取代它，它们会不断地重复这个过程——领飞，调整位置，领飞，再调整位置。

    上周，美国总统奥巴马谈到了美联储主席伯南克的未来。外界认为，奥巴马的话清楚地表明，伯南克将在任期结束后离开美联储。奥巴马说，伯南克在任的“时间已经超过了他本来的计划”，此言引来众多猜测。伯南克会被解职吗？会让他完成任期吗？奥巴马对他不满吗？评论人士正在努力地把这些点点滴滴连成一串，权威人士则一拍脑门说，如果伯南克没能出席今年在怀俄明州杰克霍尔举行的全球央行行长会议，那就应该真相大白了。所有这一些可能意味着什么呢？

    作为美联储主席，伯南克的任期截止时间为2014年1月1日；而作为美联储委员，他的任期将到2020年1月31日结束。撇开猜测不说，现在让他卸任似乎毫无道理（有评论人士猜测：“奥巴马总统说这句话时可能没看提词器”）。奥巴马无意谋求连任，在经济发展日趋缓慢的情况下，现在才有人跳出来抢功或者当替罪羊都已经太晚了。

    当然，有些人认为从一开始就不应该任命伯南克为美联储主席。独立金融研究和媒体公司Hedgeye一直对伯南克的政策不满意——这种情绪远在伯南克上任之前就已出现。从很多方面来看，伯南克都称不上一位领袖，他只是艾伦•格林斯潘、亨利•保尔森和蒂姆•盖特纳一派的成员，对富人呵护有加。我们一直坚决支持沃尔克式（指提出了“沃尔克规则”的保罗•沃尔克）的变化，它能将所有不利影响压缩到很短一段时间内，然后彻底解决问题。

    同时，我们还想郑重地说一句，我们要高度称赞伯南克的智慧、奉献以及他在任职期间的全力投入。在最理想的环境下，无论是否作为，美联储主席都会受到谴责。即使没有拿过普林斯顿大学（Princeton）博士学位，我们也都能看出来伯南克从来都没有遇到过最理想的环境。

    不过，还是那个问题，他要承担多大的责任？

    伯南克采取的办法一直是刺激金融市场，进而激活主要银行和金融公司。我们不知道伯南克是否相信数万亿美元的担保、无本万利的国债交易以及实实在在的援助资金真的会变成美国公司手中的贷款。伯南克是全球闻名的大萧条专家，他对大萧条的解读是，政府所做的远远不够。实际上，后人可能对他做出积极评价。美国社会太自由，政策因此受到很多牵制，立法和监管又充满了妥协和对抗，自上而下地管理经济绝不是一件容易的事。

    Scientists observing bird flight patterns tell us the lead goose in the migratory V-pattern switches back and forth between looking ahead and looking back. It constantly checks the formation behind and adjusts its position to make sure it remains at the point of the flock. Periodically, the lead goose swerves out and another moves up to replace it, going through the same drill of lead, reposition, lead, and reposition.

    President Obama made noises last week about Bernanke's future, comments which are being read as a clear signal that Bernanke will leave the Fed when his current term expires. Hot speculation was set off when President Obama said Bernanke has been on the job "longer than he was supposed to." Will Bernanke be fired? Will he be allowed to serve out his term? Is he in the Presidential doghouse? Commentators are furiously connecting the dots as pundits smack themselves on the forehead saying, We shoulda known when Bernanke failed to show at this year's global central bank confab at Jackson Hole, Wyo. What could all this mean?

    Bernanke's term as Fed Chairman runs through January 31, 2014. His term as a member of the Federal Reserve Board ends January 31, 2020. Speculation aside, there seems little point in letting him go at this juncture ("Maybe President Obama didn't look at his teleprompter when he made that remark," one commentator mused.) President Obama is not up for reelection, and with the wheels of the economy grinding, it's too late for someone else to step in and take either credit or blame.

    Of course there are those who wish he'd never gotten the appointment in the first place. Hedgeye has taken exception with Bernanke's policies from the beginning -- starting well before him. Bernanke is in many respects not a leader, but rather a follower of the Alan Greenspan-Henry Paulson-Tim Geithner school of coddling the rich. We have been firmly in favor of a Volcker-like jolt, one that pushes all the pain into a short time frame, then gets it out of the way.

    At the same time, we wish to state for the record that we have tremendous admiration for Bernanke's intelligence, for his dedication, and for the profound commitment he has brought to his stint in public service. Serving as the appointed Head of Bloody Everything is a damned-if-you-do/damned-if-you-don't proposition under the best of circumstances. It does not take a Princeton Ph.D. to recognize that Bernanke has not been faced with the best of circumstances.

    The question remains, though, how much of that is his fault?

    Bernanke's approach has been to stimulate the financial markets, and with them the major banking and financial firms. It is not clear to us that Bernanke ever believed the multiple trillions of dollars in guarantees, free profits on Treasury spreads, and actual cash handouts were ever going to turn into actual loans to America's businesses. Bernanke's read of the Great Depression -- a topic on which he is famously a world-renowned expert -- is that the government did not do nearly enough. And history may in fact judge him in a positive light. In a society with so many freedoms tugging at the strings of policy -- and with such a compromised and conflicted process driving both legislation and the regulatory process -- it can't be simple to manage the economy from the top down.