苹果好日子已经到头了吗？

    苹果（Apple）的鼎盛时期是否已经过去，或者它只是暂时休息一下，之后将延续惊人的快速增长和举世瞩目的创新？对于这个问题，要得出明确的答案似乎是不可能完成的任务。毕竟，苹果对自己的发展规划始终守口如瓶，甚至禁止人们随意讨论这个话题。而且，苹果新任CEO很少公开讲话，即使有也非常谨慎，很少透露太多内容。面对这样一家公司，如何才能预测它的发展轨迹？

    要完成这个不可能完成的任务，解决方案不是要做出一种选择，而是考虑独立论据的两个方面。两种说法都有非常有效的证据，而且每一种说法在那些技术精英当中都不乏狂热的支持者。即使苹果内部的资深人员也存在不同意见，有人认为这家公司的卓越必将帮助它再次取得胜利，但其他人却看到太多衰退的迹象，对这家公司的信心开始动摇。

    但现实生活只存在一种可能性。那么我是什么观点？

    绝大多数证据、常识和直觉都表明，苹果已经触顶的说法更令人信服。把苹果看作一个跟随者听起来有些刺耳，但实际上苹果iTunes Radio服务、扁平的手机软件设计、以及依然无法令人满意的在线地图等等，却都给人苹果就是跟随者的印象。苹果公司本不应该在任何事情上跟随任何人。如果苹果推出更低价的手机，确实能增加收入。但一家经常攻击低端产品的高端品牌这么做要承担巨大的风险。如果公司开发可穿戴计算设备，谷歌（Google）、捷波朗（Jawbone）甚至其合作伙伴耐克（Nike）早都已经走在了前面。

    但正如我所说的，现在也有许多更正面的数据。本文的印刷版刚刚付印时，便有各种报道显示出苹果复苏的迹象。苹果在日本申请iWatch专利表明它对可穿戴计算设备非常认真。苹果将与时代华纳有线电视（Time Warner Cable）商谈电视内容权利。苹果此举是为目前的Apple TV，或者是像粉丝们希望的那样，为了等待已久的iTelevision？后来又有消息称，苹果聘用前时装品牌高管保罗•蒂尼维为公司副总裁，负责特别项目，还招募了Hulu公司高管彼得•迪赛德，协助公司进行内容谈判。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    The task at first seemed impossible: Determine if Apple's best days are behind it or if it's merely taking a break from breakneck growth and world-beating innovation. After all, how to figure out the trajectory of a company that is so tight-lipped with its plans, which prohibits its people from talking freely, even amongst themselves, a company whose new CEO speaks rarely and then in crisp, measured sentences designed to reveal as little as possible?

    The solution to an undoable task ultimately was not to choose, or rather to take both sides in separate arguments. There's an equally valid case to be made here, and each argument has passionate adherents among the techno-elite. Even among Apple veterans opinions are split, with some believing the excellence of the organization will enable it to win again and others seeing too many signs of decay to keep the faith.

    But you can't really have it both ways in life. So what do I think?

    The preponderance of the evidence, common sense and gut instinct all suggest the Apple-has-peaked argument is the stronger of the two. It is jarring to see Apple (AAPL) as a follower, but that's what it looks like with its iTunes Radio service, with its flat mobile software design, with its still sub-optimal online maps. Apple isn't supposed to follow anyone on anything. If Apple makes a cheaper phone, it will boost revenues. But a premium brand that attacks the low end does so at its peril. If it moves into wearable computers, it will do so only after Google (GOOG), Jawbone, or its own partner Nike (NKE) already have shown the way.

    As I said, though, there are plenty of more positive data points too. Just since the print edition of this article went to press, reports surfaced that shows signs of light for Apple. A patent application in Japan for an iWatch suggests Apple is serious about wearables. Apple supposedly is talking to Time Warner Cable (TWC) about streaming rights. Is this just for Apple TV as it currently exists, or is it for the long-awaited iTelevision, as the fanboys hope? Then comes news that Apple has hired fashion executive Paul Deneve as a vice-president working on special projects as well as Hulu executive Pete Distad to craft content deals.