中国经济放缓真相透视

    2013年正成为中国稳妥下调GDP增长目标的一年。年初，国务院将原先8%的标准正式下调至7.5%。上周，财政部长楼继伟又将这一数字降至7%，而且说增长水平甚至有可能会更低。

    中国经济确实在减速——但这只是相对而言。中国国家主席习近平已经告诫各级官员少操心GDP，多关注民生质量，但投资者仍然把注意力集中在这个笼统的指标上。7.5%的官方经济增长目标已经是20世纪90年以来的最低水平。接受较低的经济增长速度表明中国政府已经摒弃了原先公认的理论，也就是经济增速低于8%可能会造成失业人数上升和社会局势不稳。

    从观察人士的角度而言，6%的经济增长率对中国来说显得很不寻常。不久之前中国的正常发展速度还在10%以上。但按照其他中等收入国家的标准，中国的经济形势仍然格外的好。国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，今年拉美和中东的GDP增幅均为3%。

    中国经济增速放缓有三方面的原因。首先，对中国出口商品的需求正增长得越来越慢。6月份中国出口额下降了3%，表现特别低迷，过去12个月的平均增长率也处于2010年初以来的最低水平。人民币升值也带来了不利影响，需求疲软也是如此。但随着中国富裕水平的提高，本币升值是正常现象，以廉价劳动力为基础的出口则逐渐消失。

    其次，经济引力的影响正在逐渐增强。中国的劳动力群体已经停止了增长，城镇化步伐也开始放慢，原因是已经有这么多的人离开了农村。更让人担心的是投资效率的下降。几年前，GDP增长一块钱只需要一块钱的投资，现在则需要差不多四块钱。

    最后，中国政府不再设法和经济引力抗衡。政府对刺激措施已经有了了解，2009年中国曾经大举保增长、促内需。财政赤字只占中国GDP 的2%，大型银行完全在政府的控制之下，这种情况下中国政府手里有牌可打。经济数据也在政府的掌握之中，因此基本上已公布的数字都很合适。显然，政府对GDP增长率下滑心里有数。

    中国的经济增长一直靠借贷推动。但还没有迹象表明是信贷紧缩造成了目前的经济放缓。政府对“影子银行”，也就是银行表外放贷活动的整治可能会让经济受到打击；作为受到政府青睐的新增流动性衡量指标，社会融资规模最近出现下降。但能更好地体现GDP所受影响的6个月平均社会融资规模仍在上升。

    For China, 2013 is becoming the year of the credible shrinking GDP growth target. Earlier in the year, the old 8% norm was shaved down to an official estimate of 7.5% by China's State Council. Last week, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei moved that to 7%, and said an even lower number was possible.

    China's slowdown is real -- but relative. While President Xi Jinping has told China's officials to worry less about GDP and more about quality of life, investors still focus on the crude indication. The official target of a 7.5%increase would already have created China's slowest growth since 1990. The official acceptance of a lower number shows that the old received wisdom -- anything below 8% puts China at risk of rising unemployment and social unrest -- has been discarded.

    For China-watchers, 6% growth sounds bizarre. It was not that long ago that double digits were normal. But by the standards of the other middle-income countries, China is still doing exceptionally well. The International Monetary Fund expects 3% GDP growth this year in both Latin America and the Middle East.

    It has three causes. First, demand for exports from China is slowing. June's 3% decline is especially weak, but the average increase over the last twelve months is the slowest rate since the beginning of 2010. A strong currency hurts, as does weak demand. But as China gets richer, it's natural that the currency rises and that exports based on cheap labor fade away.

    Second, economic gravity is catching up. The Chinese workforce is no longer increasing and the pace of urbanization is slowing because so many people have already left the farms. Of more concern is the decreasing efficiency of investment. A few years ago, only one yuan of investment was needed to add a yuan to GDP. Now it takes almost four yuan.

    Finally, the authorities are not trying to fight gravity. The government knows about stimulus; it did a huge one in 2009. With a fiscal deficit of just 2% of GDP and total control of the big banks, it has the means. It also controls the statistics, so can basically report whatever number suits. Clearly, the authorities are comfortable with lower GDP growth numbers.

    China's growth has been fueled by borrowing. But there's no sign that the slowdown has been created by a credit crunch. The official effort to rein in "shadow banking," loans that do not appear on banks' books, may hurt; and total social financing, the government's favored measure of new money pumped into the economy, has come down recently. But the six-month average of social financing, a good measure of what's affecting GDP today, is rising.