货币战争威胁消退

    不久前，新兴经济体的领导人们还认为，美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve）旨在促进美国经济复苏的宽松货币政策可能正在破坏世界其他经济体。但是，随着美国经济慢慢好转，现在一些国家却开始担心美联储打算终结宽松政策的可能。

    这不仅说明了美联储自大萧条（Great Depression）以来最大规模货币政策试验的巨大影响力，同时也彰显了一个事实，即无论美联储何去何从，总有一些央行行长会怏怏不乐。

    美联储主席本•伯南克5月份的一次讲话导致金融市场陷入一片慌乱。他当时说，如果美国经济形势继续改善，美联储可能会放慢每月850亿美元的资产收购计划。鉴于失业率虽然有所改观、但仍处于较高水平，这个假设影响重大。不过，伯南克本周三重申，如果美国就业市场突然再次陷入困境，美联储可能会扩大每月债券收购计划的规模。

    由于投资者纷纷逃离债券市场，美国国债的收益率在过去数周直到到本周二和周三回落之前，一直在大幅攀升。

    不过，并不是只有投资者才出现这么大的反应。本周二，韩国财政部长警告称，如果美联储仓促终结QE，新兴经济体可能将不得不削减从美国的进口。这一点情有可原，如果美元升值（事实上美元的升值势头已经维持了几个月，而且很可能还会继续下去），美国向世界各地出口的任何东西都会变得更加昂贵。

    但是，令人惊讶的是这种口风的转变如此迅速。大约一年前，新兴市场出口商仍然在艰难地应对本币升值的挑战。2010年，巴西指责西方决策者（尤其是美国）发动“货币战争”，导致廉价资金在全球泛滥。它们认为，美元币值将螺旋下降到极低水平，导致新兴市场货币不断升值，从而使得它们的出口产品更加昂贵，国家竞争力因此下滑。

    三年后的今天，巴西财政部长吉多•曼特加和其他人预警的“货币战争”并没有发生。大范围的货币贬值并没有掀起一场全球经济灾难。如今，自美联储量化宽松政策开始后大量流入新兴经济体的资金正在流出这些国家，因为投资者预计美联储将结束宽松货币政策。一周前，土耳其收紧货币政策，试图推动本币里拉脱离纪录低点。如果其他经济体效仿，市场不会感到惊讶。

    和一些人预期截然相反的是，量化宽松政策并没有摧毁美元。美元经历了超过十年的贬值之后，自2011年年底以来已经升值了约7%。而且，如果美国经济形势进一步改善，美元走强的趋势可能会得以延续。

    韩国可能担心美国进口的下降，但这些担忧更充分的说明一些新兴经济体不仅欢迎、而且也离不开美国的QE。

    伯克利大学（Berkley University）哈斯商学院（Haas School of Business）教授詹姆斯•威尔科克斯说：“QE的初衷是让美国经济更强。随着美国人的个人收入不断上升，我们将购买更多的日本汽车，拉丁美洲的牛肉干，等等。这将有助于新兴经济体的出口。”

    所以，尽管新兴经济体不留情面地批评了QE，但是没有QE，它们的出口增长会更难。（ 财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    Not long ago, leaders of emerging economies thought the U.S. Federal Reserve's easy money policies aimed at nursing the American economy back to health might also destroy the rest of the world. But as the U.S. economy slowly improves, some countries now worry that the Fed's stimulus may be coming to an end.

    This not only says a lot about the Fed's biggest experiment in monetary policy since the Great Depression, but it also highlights that no matter what the Fed does, some central bankers won't be happy.

    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke shocked markets in May when he said the central bank could slow down its $85 billion monthly asset purchases if the U.S. economy continues to improve. That's a big if, given that unemployment, while it has improved, is still relatively high. And if the job market all of a sudden falls back to trouble territory, the Fed could increase its monthly bond purchases, as Bernanke reaffirmed Wednesday.

    Before slipping Tuesday and Wednesday, yields on U.S. Treasuries had risen sharply over the past few weeks as bond investors fled the market.

    Investors aren't the only ones reacting in big ways, though: On Tuesday, South Korea's finance minister warned emerging economies might be forced to cut imports from the U.S. if the Fed isn't careful in unwinding QE. This makes sense -- if the value of the U.S. dollar rises, which it has done for several months now and likely will continue, whatever America sells to the rest of the world becomes more expensive.

    What's surprising, though, is how quickly the tone has shifted. A year or so ago, emerging market exporters were still battling rising exchange rates. In 2010, Brazil blamed Western policymakers, particularly the U.S., for waging "currency wars" by flooding the world with cheap money. They thought the value of the U.S. dollar would spiral down to oblivion and cause currencies across emerging markets to rise to levels that would make exports more expensive and their countries less competitive.

    Three years later, the currency wars Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega and others warned about haven't emerged. Widespread currency devaluation never set off a global economic disaster. And now much of the money that investors poured into emerging economies after the start of the Fed's QE is now leaving those countries in anticipation of its end. Last week, Turkey tightened policy in efforts to pull the lira off record lows. It wouldn't be surprising if other economies follow.

    And contrary to what some had thought, QE hasn't destroyed the U.S. Dollar. After more than a decade of decline, the greenback has risen by about 7% since late 2011, and the rise will likely continue if the economy improves further.

    South Korea may worry about a fall in U.S. imports, but those concerns say a lot about the way emerging economies have come to not only embrace, but also to rely on QE.

    "QE was supposed to make the U.S. economy stronger," says James Wilcox, professor at Berkley University's Haas School of Business. "With more personal income in the U.S. we would buy more Japanese cars, hydrated beef from Latin America, and so on, and that would help exports across emerging economies."

    So as much as emerging economies have criticized QE, it's harder for them to see how their exports might grow without it.