阿里巴巴上市传闻放大雅虎的股权困境

    阿里巴巴（Alibaba）是雅虎（Yahoo）最成功的投资，也是它最棘手的问题。搜索巨头雅虎持有中国最大的在线零售商——阿里巴巴24%的股权，价值可能超过雅虎的账面资产总值——160亿美元。但未来阿里巴巴首次公开发行——雅虎已承诺届时出售持有的阿里巴巴股票中的一半，雅虎能兑现的金额可能要少得多。因为阿里巴巴拿到了大多数好牌。

    雅虎在2005年投资了10亿美元，其中的收获就包括阿里巴巴的股权。2012年9月，雅虎以税前71亿美元的价格售出了其中的一半股权。根据一份2012年5月的股东协议的条款，如果阿里巴巴于2015年12月31日前首次公开发行，雅虎届时将出售其持有的一半阿里巴巴股票。阿里巴巴可以选择是自己买入这些股票，也可以选择让雅虎公开出售。阿里巴巴上市之后，雅虎和其他关键股东将面临一年的禁售期，禁止出售前者的股票。

    募集成长资金的公司通常希望发行价定得高一些，以便只出售尽量少的股份就能募得尽量多的资金。但阿里巴巴不太可能在首次公开发行中筹集新资。这家公司持有大笔现金，最近刚以约4％的利率从银行借款80亿美元。如果只有雅虎出售股份，那阿里巴巴的老板们可能不会太关心初始股价有多高，而是更关心上市后股票的表现是不是足够强劲。

    （阿里巴巴）抑制价格还有一个原因：Facebook的教训历历在目。美国社交网络巨头Facebook在2012年IPO时估值高达千亿美元，但随后它的股价直线下降。Facebook花了整整一年时间，直到本周发布了增势强劲的营收报告后，股价才得以重回IPO时的水平。虽然绝对数值的意义不如相对估值大，但它的心理效应不容小觑。

    雅虎上月早些时候提交的文件显示，阿里巴巴2013年第一季度营收为14亿美元，同比增幅高达71%。雅虎方面还显示，阿里巴巴的净利润同比大涨189%，达到了6.8亿美元，而其运营利润率高达51%，是2010年以来的最高值。雅虎披露的阿里巴巴财务状况有三个月的延时。

    分析师预测以及市场传闻的阿里巴巴600亿美元估值实在是低得令人费解。阿里巴巴去年净利润约为14亿美元，我们假设这家公司在今明两年都能保持50%的涨幅。据Eikon称，假如我们采用Facebook预期市盈率的最低值——30倍，那么阿里巴巴的估值应接近1000亿美元。

    雅虎有一定的影响力。它在阿里巴巴的董事会派了一名代表，还有权指定一家投资银行帮助运作任何发售过程。此后，阿里巴巴上市后，雅虎仍将持有阿里巴巴12％的股份。尽管有一年的禁售期，但假如阿里巴巴的股价在首次公开发行后暴涨，那这些股份对雅虎而言也是个安慰。

    眼下首次公开发行的时间尚未确定，仍有时间进行和解。比如，雅虎或许能达成协议，售出自己持有的全部股权，但或许在约定的期限内，分享未来股价上涨带来的收益。这将需要艰难的谈判，但雅虎的投资者很可能会欣赏它彻底从阿里巴巴抽身而退。争争吵吵八年之后，阿里巴巴可能甚至准备花钱买个清静，同雅虎彻底了断。（财富中文网）

    译者：项航  

    Alibaba is Yahoo's best investment, and its most frustrating problem. The search giant's 24% stake in China's biggest online retailer is probably worth more than Yahoo's entire booked assets of $16 billion. But a future initial public offering, in which Yahoo has promised to sell half its shares, may deliver much less. That's because Alibaba holds most of the cards.

    Yahoo acquired its Alibaba stake as part of a $1 billion investment made in 2005. In September 2012, Yahoo sold half of its holding in Alibaba for $7.1 billion before taxes. Under the terms of a May 2012 shareholder agreement, Yahoo will sell half of its shares in Alibaba if an initial public offering takes place before Dec. 31, 2015. Alibaba can choose whether to buy the shares or have Yahoo (YHOO) sell them in the offering. After that, Yahoo and other key shareholders will be prohibited from selling stock for one year.

    A company raising growth funds typically wants a high IPO price, to raise the maximum proceeds for the sale of the fewest shares. But Alibaba is unlikely to raise new money in an IPO. It has plenty of cash, having recently borrowed $8 billion from banks at an interest rate of roughly 4%. If the only shares sold are Yahoo's, Alibaba's bosses could be less concerned about a high initial share price and more interested in strong stock performance thereafter.

    There's another reason to keep a lid on the price: Facebook's (FB) experience. The U.S. social network priced its 2012 IPO at a twelve-digit dollar valuation, and then watched its shares fall precipitously. It took over a year and a big boost from this week's earnings report to bring the stock back to its IPO price. Absolute numbers matter less than relative valuations, but the psychology counts.

    Alibaba's revenue increased 71% in the first quarter of 2013 from a year earlier to $1.4 billion, according to filings by Yahoo earlier this month. Earnings increased 189% year-on-year to $680 million in the quarter, according to the Yahoo presentation, with an operating margin of 51%, the highest since 2010. Yahoo discloses Alibaba's headline financial results with a three-month delay.

    Analyst estimates and market chatter of a valuation as low as $60 billion for Alibaba is already puzzling. Suppose the company can ramp up its roughly $1.4 billion of earnings last year by 50% this year and next. Apply Facebook's lowest price-to-forward earnings ratio of 30 times, according to Eikon, and Alibaba should tip the scales at nearly $100 billion.

    Yahoo has some influence. It has a representative on Alibaba's board and the right to appoint an investment bank to help run any offering process. The 12% stake it would still own after an IPO also offers some comfort -- albeit locked up for a year -- if Alibaba shares shoot up after their market debut.

    And with no IPO date set, there's also time for compromise. Yahoo might, for example, be able to strike a deal to sell its entire stake while perhaps also sharing in future stock price gains over an agreed period. That would require tough negotiations, but Yahoo investors would probably appreciate the clean exit. After eight fractious years, Alibaba may even be prepared to pay up to get a clean break of its own.