新一届美联储主席无奖大猜想
新任美联储主席两大热门人选拉里•萨默斯（左）与詹尼特•耶伦。
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谁将成为美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve）下一届主席：拉里•萨默斯，还是詹尼特•耶伦?我已经有了答案。真的，不骗你。 我是怎么知道的？要预测谁会成为下届美联储主席其实很容易，这一点你可能也知道。 2004年11月，美联社（Associated Press）称，有三位经济经济学家可能接替时任美联储主席艾伦•格林斯潘，其中并没有本•伯南克。那篇文章称伯南克是一匹“黑马”。同年12月份，《纽约时报》（New York Times）称，哥伦比亚大学（Columbia University）经济学家、前总统乔治•W•布什的顾问格兰•哈勃德是显然的领跑者。 2005年1月，保罗•克鲁格曼在《纽约时报》撰文称，伯南克也有可能，但这只是因为哈佛（Harvard）经济学家马丁•菲尔德斯坦由于曾经批评罗纳德•里根而被共和党人冷落。据《商业周刊》（Businessweek）报道，到了5月份菲尔德斯坦已重回首位。10月份就在伯南克最终被选中出任新一届美联储主席前不久，《财富》杂志（Fortune)记者贾斯汀•福克斯撰文称，谁来接替格林斯潘真的不重要。所谓的经济周期波动“大缓和”(great moderation，当时有一种观点认为，深度经济衰退已经成为历史)和经济理论进步已经使得美联储的政策调控很大程度上变成自动驾驶模式。福克斯写道：“当美联储主席已经没过去那么难了。”真的是这样吗？ 我不想犯同样的错误，因此我花了很大力气来预测谁将拿下美联储头把交椅。 根据我对其他记者文章的粗略统计，耶伦看起来在警告楼市泡沫方面做得不错。萨默斯在应对楼市泡沫破裂方面做得不错，虽然也有人认为，话说回来，当初正是他在上世纪九十年代任美国财长时解除对金融市场的管制造成了这个问题。因此，我猜耶伦有些优势。 耶伦是量化宽松政策的创始人之一，美联储的这个债券购买刺激计划降低了利率，推高了股市。楼市和企业贷款也在增长。这项政策也没有造成有些人担心的超高通胀。而另一方面，萨默斯经常抨击量化宽松政策，要么指责政策没有效果，要么大谈特谈它可能引发的灾难。不过，萨默斯的支持者表示，假如他被任命为美联储主席，他会全力赞成延续量化宽松政策。应此给萨默斯加一分。 耶伦是一个善于打造共识的人。萨默斯愿意违背自己的想法。两人各得一分。 当然，这都不重要。真正重要的是谁支持你。因此，你真正需要知道的是在经济学家、前政府官员、政客以及迄今为止支持萨默斯或耶伦的大嘴们中间，谁能决定下届美联储主席人选。
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Who will be the next head of the Federal Reserve: Larry Summers or Janet Yellen? I have the answer. Really. How do I know? Because, as you may know, predicting who will be the next Fed chair is easy. In November 2004, the Associated Press said there were three economists who were likely to replace then-Fed head Alan Greenspan, none of which were Ben Bernanke. The article called Bernanke a "dark horse." In December, the New York Times said Glenn Hubbard, a Columbia University economist and former George W. Bush adviser, was the obvious frontrunner. By January, Paul Krugman in the New York Times had Bernanke as a possibility, but only because Harvard economist Martin Feldstein was being pilloried by Republicans for once criticizing Ronald Reagan. But Feldstein was back in front by May, according to Businessweek.Fortune's own Justin Fox wrote in October, shortly before Bernanke was finally picked, that it didn't really matter who replaced Greenspan. The so-called great moderation -- there was an idea that deep recessions were a thing of the past -- and advances in economic theory had pretty much put Fed policy on autopilot. Wrote Fox: "Being Fed chairman isn't that hard anymore." How's that for being above the fray? I'm not going to make the same mistake, which is why I have put so much effort into predetermining without a doubt who will get the top job at the Fed. According to a cursory scan of the work of other journalists, it appears Yellen did a good jobwarning about the housing bubble. Summers did a good job of responding to it when it burst, although some people say his push to deregulate financial markets when he was Treasury Secretary in the 1990s caused the problems in the first place. So edge to Yellen, I guess. Yellen is one of the authors of quantitative easing -- the Fed's signature bond buying stimulus program -- which has lowered interest rates and boosted the stock market. The housing market and business lending are also up. It has not caused hyper-inflation as some feared it might. Summers, on the other hand, has repeatedly bashed QE, alternating between saying it does nothing, to expounding on the disasters it could cause. Still, Summers' supporters say he would be all for continuing QE if he were to be named Fed chairman. So point to Summers for flexibility. Yellen is a consensus builder. Summers is willing to ruffle feathers and go against the grain. Point. Point. But, of course, none of that matters. What really matters is who has your back. So the thing you really need to know to be able to determine, as I have, who will be the next Fed head is the tally of economists, former administration officials, politicians, and just regular blabbermouths who have so far come out in favor of Summers or Yellen. |
