LinkedIn风光背后现隐忧

    目前，商务社交网站LinkedIn在各方面似乎都顺风顺水。只有一个问题，那就是，地球人都知道，LinkedIn正风光无限。

    这对LinkedIn的业务而言不见得是件坏事。事实上，这可能有利无害。随着这家公司进军国际市场，力争成为实时商业新闻的交流中心，同时与LinkedIn平台上的企业以及开发商结成伙伴关系，良好的口碑绝对是个加分项。

    最有助于打造良好口碑的莫过于飙升的股价。而这对LinkedIn来说可能就是问题所在。过去几年，投资者对于在公开市场上市的网络股多持怀疑态度。团购网站Groupon等公司虽然增长迅速，但亏损严重。而社交游戏公司Zynga等公司的商业模式很快就陷入不利境地。不过，LinkedIn在这方面是个例外。跟这些同行比起来，它可算得上是鹤立鸡群。

    2011年5月，LinkedIn计划以每股32美元的发行价上市，但最终其发行价被上调至每股45美元。之后，在26个月内，它的股价上涨了四倍多，在本周早些时候创下每股237.96美元的新高。相比之下，Groupon目前的股价比自身发行价低了47％，而Zynga更是低了71％。

    即便去年夏天Facebook命运多舛的IPO让整个互联网IPO陷入低潮，但LinkedIn却幸免于难。LinkedIn专注于专业市场，这使它更像一家面向企业的网站，而不像其它面向个人用户的社交网站，只能依靠兜售广告为生。

    凭借近期喜人的财报，Facebook股价回升，而LinkedIn的股价则持续上涨。在Facebook上市后的头一年股价一直萎靡不振，投资者纷纷转而投资同为社交媒体的LinkedIn，现在这种情形可不会出现了，因为Facebook的股价已经突破了每股38美元的发行价。LinkedIn上季度营收增长强劲，首次推动股价在过去两周上涨了18%。

    不过与Facebook不同，LinkedIn的财报可谓喜忧参半。它的营收同比增长了59%，这很好。但LinkedIn预测本季度营收约为37亿美元，低于分析师38.4亿美元的预期。

    市场反应很大程度同华尔街对LinkedIn的看法相关。这家公司季复一季地贡献着强劲的营收和营业利润，许多分析师都想知道社交网络的赚钱极限究竟在何处。LinkedIn最大的法宝是招聘解决方案，这也是商业网络的核心所在。每个季度，LinkedIn的营收指导都比较低，而在公布营收时，无一不轻而易举地超过了预期。

    Everything seems to be going right for LinkedIn (LNKD) these days. Except for maybe one thing: Everyone and their dog knows that everything is going right for LinkedIn.

    That's not necessarily a problem for LinkedIn's business. In fact, it could help. As the company broadens into international markets, as it pushes toward new goals like being a clearinghouse for realtime business news, and as it partners with companies and developers on its LinkedIn Platform, positive-word-of mouth can only help these efforts gain traction.

    Few things offer better word of mouth than a rocketing stock price. And that may present LinkedIn a problem. During the past few years, investors were skeptical about web companies that listed on public markets. Some, like Groupon (GRPN), went public with fast growth but big losses. Others, like Zynga (ZNGA), listed with a business model that soon ran into headwinds. LinkedIn was always the exception disproving the rule, the star pupil in a less-than-impressive class.

    In May 2011, LinkedIn planned to go public at $32 a share before the offering price to $45 a share. Then In 26 months on the market, the price of those shares have risen more than five times over, rising to a record high of $237.96 a share earlier this week. By contrast, Groupon is 47% below its offering price, and Zynga is 71% below.

    Even after Facebook's (FB) problematic IPO last summer dampened interest further in web IPOs, LinkedIn thrived. The company's focus on the professional market made it seem more like an enterprise play rather than a consumer social network trying to sell mostly ads.

    Now that Facebook's strong earnings report has reignited its own stock rally, LinkedIn's continues to rise. Investors who harbored their social-media money in LinkedIn during the dog days of Facebook's first year as a public company aren't selling now that Facebook is trading above its own offering price of $38 a share. LinkedIn is up 18% in the past two weeks, propelled in good part by its own strong growth last quarter.

    But unlike Facebook, LinkedIn's report was seen as a mixed bag. Yes, revenue grew 59% on year, but the company forecast revenue in the current quarter to be around $370 million, below the $384 million analysts had been modeling.

    Much of this reaction has to do with the view that Wall Street has taken of LinkedIn. The company delivered quarter after quarter of robust revenue growth and operating profits at a time when many wondered how social media sites could be monetized. LinkedIn relied heavily on its hiring solutions, a service built upon the business network at its core. Each quarter, the company guided expectations low, then hopped easily over the bar once it came time to announce results.