历史的启示：底特律重生的三条出路

    怎样才能让汽车之城底特律复苏？上个月底特律申请破产以来，许多人一直都在思考这座城市能否转危为安，以及怎样才能做到这一点。重新崛起从来都不是一件轻而易举的事，而不论是破产还是违约都能摧毁一座城市的经济以及它的信用评级。

    市政破产较为罕见。美国以前也有几座城市曾濒临破产，但60年来申请过破产的城市和县只有61个。它们的情况都和底特律不同，但有些城市和县也曾面临类似的困难，底特律当然有可能从它们那里了解到如何按照类似的途径重现往日的光辉。

    底特律可以从下面三个死而复生的案例中汲取一些经验：

匹兹堡：发展

    匹兹堡没有破过产，但它的衰退过程和底特律很像：两座城市都在20世纪下半叶出现过急剧的人口流失。它们都见证了本市主要产业的消亡——匹兹堡的主要产业是钢铁，这个行业衰败于上世纪80年代；而曾经兴盛的汽车产业给底特律带来的损失至今也没有得到弥补。

    汤姆•墨菲在1994年到2006年期间曾担任匹兹堡市市长，在他治下，匹兹堡的建筑业实现了复苏。墨菲说：“（底特律必须）想清楚自己要发展成什么模样。”

    底特律可以效仿匹兹堡对自身进行再造。钢铁业崩溃后，匹兹堡就业市场出现了不匹配现象，它的那些制造业工人不具备从事其他工作的资质。但几年之后，随着医疗保健和教育业的发展，匹兹堡的经济重心转向了服务领域。最终，匹兹堡人也适应了新行业中的工作。

    1998年，《匹兹堡邮报》（Pittsburgh Post-Gazette）发表社论，宣布“匹兹堡正在重建”。匹兹堡在墨菲任内实现了税收增长，和大公司建立了合作关系，兴建了两座体育场和一座新的会议中心。《匹兹堡邮报》指出，新开工的写字楼和购物中心是匹兹堡出现第三次复兴的原因之一，它们重新把商业活动带回了中心市区。

    在底特律，政府官员已经表示，他们乐观地认为底特律的核心地带能够重现繁荣景象。

    申请破产前，紧急状态管理人凯文•奥尔提出了多项计划，打算向底特律每况愈下的基础设施投资12.5亿美元（77.13亿元人民币），以期刺激经济增长。他多次提到，个人按揭贷款机构Quicken Loans等新兴企业搬到市中心表明底特律已经走上了复苏之路。

橘子县：增加收入，提升房地产价值

    1994年，加利福尼亚州橘子县破产，但富裕的民众减轻了破产对当地整体经济的打击。虽然破产规模达到令人瞠目的15亿美元（92.55亿元人民币）而且市政方面裁员41%，但随后几年橘子县经济总体上仍处于稳定增长状态。从1994年到1999年，当地人均总收入提高了42.8%，高于34.7%的全国平均水平。给当地带来繁荣的是多元化的经济——橘子县的主要行业囊括了高科技、零售和旅游（毕竟这里是迪士尼乐园的发源地）。

    考虑到高达16%的失业率（是全国平均失业率的两倍多）以及勉强超过2.5万美元（15.43万元人民币）的平均家庭收入，很难想象底特律怎样才能复制橘子县的复苏之路。但底特律制定了促进市中心商业发展的政策，比如基础设施建设，这将给底特律带来薪酬较高的工作机会。

    How do you get the Motor City revving again? Since Detroit filed for bankruptcylast month, many have wondered if and how it could make a comeback. Recovery is never easy; bankruptcy or default can wreck a city's economy and kill its credit rating.

    Municipal bankruptcies are rare. Several cities have come close, and only 61 cities and counties have filed in the last six decades. They all have a different story from Detroit's, but some faced similar hurdles and could certainly teach the Michigan city a thing or two about how to follow a similar path to recovery.

    Here are three lessons for Detroit from cities that fell before it and survived:

Pittsburgh: Grow up

    While Pittsburgh never went bankrupt, its decline played out similarly to Detroit's: Both saw acute population loss during the second half of the 20th century. Both also witnessed the demise of their city's major industries -- for Pittsburgh, it was steel in the 1980s; Detroit has never recovered from losing its once thriving auto industry.

    "[Detroit must] figure out what it's going to be when it grows up," says Tom Murphy, who was mayor of Pittsburgh from 1994 to 2006 and oversaw a resurgence in construction.

    Like Pittsburgh, Detroit could reinvent itself. After the collapse of the steel industry, Pittsburgh suffered an employment mismatch, where workers who specialized in manufacturing weren't qualified for other jobs. Over the years, however, the city shifted into a services economy with growth in the health care and education industries. Eventually, Pittsburghers adapted to jobs in the new sectors.

    "Pittsburgh is rebuilding again," declared a Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial in 1998. Murphy oversaw an infusion of tax dollars, in partnership with major businesses, to construct two stadiums and a new convention center. The paper cited new construction of offices and shopping centers as a reason for the city's "Renaissance III" that brought commerce back to the downtown.

    In Detroit, officials have expressed optimism that the city's downtown could see revitalization.

    Prior to the bankruptcy filing, Emergency Manager Kevyn Orr announced plans to invest $1.25 billion in Detroit's failing infrastructure with the hopes of spurring economic growth. He often cites the movement of young businesses, such as Quicken Loans, to the city's downtown as evidence that Detroit has a renaissance of its own underway.

Orange County: Boost incomes and raise property values

    In 1994, Orange County, Calif., went bankrupt, but the wealth of its citizens cushioned the blow to its overall economy. Despite a staggering $1.5 billion bankruptcy and a 41% cut in municipal services, the county's overall economy grew steadily through the late 1990's. Total personal income rose by 42.8% between 1994 and 1999, compared with 34.7% nationwide. A diverse economy -- with major sectors ranging from high-tech to retail to tourism (it's the home to Disneyland, after all) -- propelled the boom.

    It's hard to imagine how Detroit could replicate this, given an unemployment rate that stands uncomfortably high at 16% (more than twice the national average) and a median household income that barely clears $25,000. But policies designed to accommodate the growth of business in the downtown, such as infrastructure development, would bring higher-wage jobs to the city.