美国制造业复苏无助中产阶级复兴

    最近，美国制造业喜讯不断。制造业曾被认为是影响美国中产阶级增长的重要产业。众所周知，近几十年来，美国的制造业一直在持续衰退，但有专家以及美国企业界人士认为，许多迹象表明，之前流失到中国和其他地区的制造业工作岗位目前正向美国回流。

    据美国制造业生产力与创新联盟（Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation）周二公布的数据，今年上半年，美国制成品的贸易逆差从去年同期的2,270亿美元缩小到了2,250亿美元。虽然缩小的幅度不大，但这家位于弗吉尼亚州阿林顿的研究机构认为，这是一个积极的信号，尤其是考虑到多年来美国制成品贸易逆差始终在迅速扩大的背景。

    这份报告公布之前，另外一份报告在同一天也指出，美国制造业将重拾竞争力——未来七年，美国制造业将为美国创造250万至500万个工厂和服务业工作岗位。波士顿咨询集团（Boston Consulting Group）称，这个变化趋势受到多重因素的推动：天然气与电力成本降低给美国制造商带来更多优势；此外还有中国劳动力成本的持续上涨。之前，美国有大量的制造业岗位都流失到了中国。

    另外一个值得注意的因素，实际上也是很重要的因素是美国劳动力成本的降低。

    虽然劳动力成本下降会让制造商增加招聘，但它也意味着工人的收入减少，购买力下降。

    每当华盛顿的决策层和美国企业界讨论重现美国制造业辉煌的时候，许多人就免不了变得怀旧起来。它又把我们带回了以前的时光。那时，一个普通美国人在当地一家工厂工作到退休也能买得起一栋房子，可以养活一家子。从某些方面来说，奥巴马政府一直在纵容美国人的这种幻想；而它也使制造业复苏成为重中之重。

    然而，看看如今的工资水平，想想未来这些钱都能买到什么，或许我们就不会感到激动了。

    有一份普通的工作总比失业好，尤其是如今许多人还在为找工作而苦苦挣扎。最近几年，制造业创造了更多的工作岗位，但由于工资持续停滞不前，制造业根本不可能振兴美国日益萎缩的中产阶级。

    加州大学伯克利分校（University of California Berkeley）公共政策与经济学教授杰西•罗斯坦表示，实际情况是，美国工厂更依赖机器，而不是工人。机器的效率更高，而投入更少。而且，如今美国工会的谈判能力早已大不如前，所以工人们不太可能提升收入。

    罗斯坦在2012年的一项调查中发现，耐用品（持续超过三年或三年以上的物品）制造商在2010年和2011年招聘工人的工资比2007年和2008年平均降低了0.3%。

    There's been some good news lately about U.S. manufacturing -- that sector of American industry once considered vital to the growth of the nation's middle class. It's well known manufacturing has been declining for decades, but experts, and some across corporate America, have been saying that many factors signal that factory jobs that have gone to China and other parts of the world are returning.

    During the first half of this year, the trade deficit on trade of manufactured goods narrowed to $225 billion from $227 billion a year ago, the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation reported Tuesday. While small, the Arlington, Va.-based research group considers the development a positive sign, especially after years of steep deficits.

    The report follows another one released Tuesday, which expects U.S. manufacturing to make a comeback -- potentially creating 2.5 million to 5 million factory and service jobs associated with more U.S. manufacturing over the next seven years. Boston Consulting Group says the shift is being driven by a variety of factors: Lower costs of natural gas and electricity have given U.S. manufacturers an advantage over other countries; so has the rising cost of labor in China, where the U.S. had lost many manufacturing jobs to.

    One other factor -- indeed, a big one -- that deserves extra attention is the decline of labor costs in the U.S.

    While cheaper labor has made manufacturers more likely to hire, it also means less income and spending power for workers.

    Understandably many people get nostalgic whenever Washington policymakers and corporate America talk about reclaiming all that was good about U.S. manufacturing during its heyday. It takes us back to a time when the average American could buy a house and raise a family by working at the local factory until retirement. In some ways, the Obama Administration has indulged this vision of America; it has made a manufacturing recovery a top priority.

    And yet, it's hard to get that excited when we look at wages today and where they could go years from now.

    A mediocre job is better than no job at all, especially at a time when so many struggle to find work. Manufacturing may create more jobs than it had in recent years, but it won't renew America's shrinking middle class so long as wages continue to stagnate.

    The reality is U.S. factories rely more on machines than actual workers, says Jesse Rothstein, public policy and economics professor at University of California Berkeley. Machines produce more for less, and with bargaining powers of U.S. unions not being what they once were, it becomes less likely workers will earn more.

    In a 2012 study, Rothstein found that hires by manufacturers of durable goods (items lasting three years or more) were paid an average of 0.3% less in 2010 and 2011 than workers newly hired in 2007 and 2008.