报纸不死，萌发新芽

    杰夫•贝佐斯、约翰•亨利、沃伦•巴菲特正在投资的并不是一个已经奄奄一息的行业。他们不会干这种事。他们正在投资的是有望反弹的资产。尽管上周媒体上又出现了一波讨论报纸螺旋式下降命运的热潮，但业内权威人士还应该考虑一些事实。

    2012年，报纸媒体创下了386亿美元的营收。尽管这个数字较2011年395亿美元下降了2%，我们也开始看到报纸商业模式终于展露出颇有希望的改变：多个收入来源的业绩均出现上涨，其中一些是最近几年才出现的。

    刚刚过去的一年，发行收入上升5％，从100亿美元上升至105亿美元。数字版订阅收入则显著增长，这是报业的该类收入自2003年以来首次出现增长。

    我们的研究发现，推动发行收入增长的是不断上涨的数字版、以及数字版和印刷版捆绑订阅价格。如果大家更仔细地观察会发现，对于整个报业来说，这些新的发行收入增长或许是个好兆头。采用这种创新方式的报纸媒体公司已经品尝到了成功的滋味，纯数字版发行收入增长了275%，捆绑发行收入增长了近5倍(499%)。

    随着报纸变得不那么依赖印刷版广告，更加依赖于一个多元的收入模式，广告收入亦出现了起色。相较于2006年的82%，2012年，不到一半的报业收入(46%)来自印刷版广告。更重要的是，与传统广告毫不相关的新收入来源——比如面向本地企业的数字资讯服务和电子商务交易——增长了8%，约占报纸媒体公司总收入的十分之一。

    虽然仅凭数字版广告难以填补印刷版广告曾经扮演的角色，但我们也看到了这个领域的增长。总体而言，2012年，数字版广告总收入（包括与印刷版广告捆绑在一起的数字版广告）增长了5%，增至33亿美元。其中，纯数字版广告收入增长20%，增至11亿美元。

    如果把报纸媒体广告商业模式的所有重要方面（包括印刷版、数字版、专营和预刊本）的收入汇聚在一起，很难忽略的一个事实是：报纸的心跳依然强劲有力。

    我们也看到了读者人数方面的证据。即使印刷版发行量在近些年有所下降，但纸质版继续吸引着大量受众。斯卡伯罗夫研究中心( Scarborough Research)的一项联合研究显示，每周有70%的美国人（1.58亿美国成年人）消费报纸媒体的内容，其中约1.44亿成年人阅读至少一份实体报纸。

    与此同时，移动技术的传播正在迅速而显著地扩大数字版报纸内容的受众群。从整个行业的角度来观察，那些现在只通过智能手机或平板电脑获取数字版报纸内容的读者使报纸在线受众的总人数增加了27%。对于一些报纸来说，纯移动用户推动在线受众总数增加了50%以上。

    此外，出于几个原因，我们务必要考虑年轻受众将对读者群产生的影响。但首要原因是，就平均而言，移动受众是更年轻的读者。近一半 (46%) 纯移动受众的年龄在18岁至34岁之间，而在纯桌面用户中，仅有30%的人处于这个年龄组。

    也许最重要的一点在于，斯卡伯罗夫研究中心发布的这份报告显示，30岁以下的年轻人依然青睐新闻媒体，依然认为报纸是一个至关重要的信息来源。在18岁至34岁年龄段中，平均每周约有57%的人阅读印刷版或数字版报纸。然而，如果观察沉溺于社交媒体的年青一代使用和消费媒体的方式，这个百分比就不足以解释报纸生成内容的真正价值——从早到晚，由报纸生成的内容被无数次地引用、浓缩、在Twitter上传播、编辑、被电子邮件发送和分享。

    事实是，所有媒体正在改变。所有公司都在与时俱进，报纸也不例外。但现在，报纸正处于一个非常有利的位置，我们正在看到前景大好的收入来源——这些收入源昭示着报纸将拥有一个灿烂的未来。正如吉姆•法洛斯所述，我毫不怀疑，近期发生的多起报纸收购事件标志着“一个时代的开始，这个镀金时代的主要受益者将重新投资于这一提供公共情报的基础设施”。我猜想，沃伦•巴菲特，约翰•亨利和杰夫•贝佐斯也是这么想的。

本文作者卡罗琳•里特尔是美国报业协会总裁兼首席执行官。（财富中文网）

    译者：任文科

    Jeff Bezos, John Henry, and Warren Buffett are not investing in dying businesses. They don't do that. They are investing in assets poised for a rebound. Despite the recent spate of media last week about the spiraling of newspapers, there are a few facts for industry pundits to consider.

    Newspaper media comprised a $38.6 billion industry in 2012. While those revenues saw a 2% decline compared to 2011 revenues ($39.5 billion), we're also starting to see promising shifts in the newspaper business model: growing revenue streams across several categories -- some of which have only emerged in recent years.

    Just this past year, circulation revenue rose by 5% -- from $10 billion to $10.5 billion -- as digital subscriptions grew dramatically, marking the first gain in this category for the newspaper industry since 2003.

    Our research has found that what's driving circulation growth is increasing digital and print-digital bundled subscription rates. And if you take an even closer look, you'll see these new circulation spikes may bode well for the future of newspapers on the whole. Already newspaper media companies that have innovated in this way have experienced success, with digital-only circulation revenue growing by 275% and revenue from bundled subscriptions seeing a six-fold (499%) increase.

    Advertising is also seeing gains, as newspapers become less reliant on print advertising and much more so on a diversified revenue model. Compared to 82% in 2006, less than half (46%) of industry revenue came from print advertising in 2012. What's more, new sources of revenue completely unrelated to conventional advertising -- such as digital consulting for local businesses and e-commerce transactions -- grew by 8%, accounting for nearly one in 10 dollars of total streams for newspaper media companies.

    Although it is difficult for digital ads alone to fill the role that print advertising once played, we nevertheless see growth in this area, too. Overall, total digital advertising, which includes digital ads bundled with print ads, increased by 5% in 2012, to $3.3 billion. The digital-only advertising component of that total increased by 20% to $1.1 billion.

    When you combine revenue streams from all essential facets of the newspaper media advertising business model, including print, digital, niche, and preprints, it's hard to ignore the evidence that newspapers are still ticking strong.

    We see that evidence in readership numbers, too. Even though print-only circulation has shown a decline in recent years, the paper version continues to draw a large audience. Of the seven in 10 Americans (158 million U.S. adults) who consume content from newspaper media each week, 144 million of those adults read a physical copy, according to a syndicated study by Scarborough Research.

    The spread of mobile technology, meanwhile, is rapidly and significantly expanding the audience for digital newspaper content. On an industry-wide basis, those who now use only smartphones or tablets to access digital newspaper content increased the overall newspaper online audience total by 27%. For some newspapers, mobile-only users have boosted the online audience by more than 50%.

    It's also important to consider the effects that the younger audience will have on readership, for a number of reasons, but first, because mobile audiences are, on average, younger readers. Nearly half (46%) of the mobile-exclusive audience falls in the 18-to-34 age group compared with 30% of desktop-bound users.

    Perhaps of utmost importance, the same Scarborough Research study shows that youth and those under 30 still have a pulse on news media, and consider the newspaper a vital source of information. Some 57% of those aged 18-34 read newspapers, in print or online, throughout the course of an average week. Yet, when you look at how younger, socially driven generations use and consume media, this percentage doesn't begin to account for the value of newspaper-generated content, which is quoted, cited, condensed, Tweeted, edited, emailed, and shared countless times throughout the day.

    The fact is all media are transforming. Companies change with the times, and newspapers are no different. But they are now emerging in a strong position, and we are seeing promising revenue streams for future success. I have no doubt the recent purchases mark the "beginning of a phase in which this Gilded Age's major beneficiaries re-invest in the infrastructure of our public intelligence," as Jim Fallows writes. I suspect that Warren Buffett, John Henry, and Jeff Bezos think so, too.

Caroline Little is the president and CEO of the Newspaper Association of America