中国投资放缓拉低消费者支出

    消费品牌发现中国业务的回报并不像传说中那般丰厚。过去一年里，中国众多领域的商品都出现了购买增长大幅放缓的情况，从新秀丽（Samsonite）到苹果（Apple）等公司发布的中国销售数据都令人失望。这个世界第二大经济体的消费者们未来还会有风光的日子，但认为现在凭消费者就可以保持增长的想法看起来有些老套，而且也站不住脚。

    7月份，中国零售销售额同比增长了13.2%，低于2012年的年度增长率14.3%和2011年17.1%的增长率。而7月份金银首饰销售额同比则猛增了42%。

    新秀丽称，它的中国业务收入2013年上半年增长了8%（剔除汇率上涨影响）。此前这家香港上市的箱包制造商公布，2012年全年中国业务收入增长20%。

    中国旺旺（Want Want China）公布，2013年上半年收入同比增长了14.9%，低于2012年上半年19.4%的增幅。这家食品制造商上周表示，它核心的乳制品和饮料业务增长了18.3%，大大低于上年同期28%的增幅。

    在中国大陆，不只是高端品牌宣布收入增长放缓。几乎各个领域的零售销售增长都低于一年前。化妆品销售增长从15%降到了10%，针织物销售增长从18%降到了12.5%。只有具有投机吸引力的金银首饰销售势头不减，7月份销售额同比增长了42%。珠宝公司蒂芙尼（Tiffany）就表示，它中国业务的销售“特别强劲”。

    与此同时，多家中国银行在中期业绩中披露，零售和批发行业的不良贷款大幅激增。招商银行（China Merchants Bank）披露，向零售企业提供的不良贷款激增了48%。中国建设银行（China Construction Bank）的增幅是19%，中信银行（China CITIC Bank）更是激增66%。

    零售收入不可能无限期地保持两位数的增长。但增长预期对于零售商决定投入多少资金用于库存和开新店非常重要。零售行业不良贷款增加表明，一些零售运营商高估了需求。运动服饰制造商李宁（Li Ning）就是一个警示，这家公司用卖不动的库存填充零售商的货架，却被迫回购这些商品来拯救品牌。

    对于设计师箱包、服饰等商品，政府限制购买礼品也是一个因素。但它不足以解释普遍的放缓。更有可能的情况是，房地产、基础设施和制造业投资减速，正在拉低收入。根据中国国家统计局（National Bureau of Statistics）的一项官方调查，2013年前两个季度，中国城镇居民人均可支配收入同比增长了9%，低于5年来13%的平均值。

    如果投资放缓，消费也会跟着放缓。它意味着，如果投资水平下降，中国无法依赖消费来填补投资水平下降的空缺，尽管他们最终必须走这条路。这也使得中国要提高消费占GDP比例（现处于35%的低位）的任务更难完成。如果中国想让消费者发力，就需要往消费者的腰包里放更多的钱。（财富中文网）

    Consumer brands in China are finding their rewards aren't quite as advertised. Growth in purchases of a wide range of goods has slowed sharply over the past year, and companies ranging from Samsonite to Apple (AAPL) are reporting disappointing Chinese sales figures. Consumers in the world's second-largest economy will have their day, but the idea they alone can sustain growth looks threadbare.

    China's retail sales grew at 13.2% in July, year on year, a slowdown from 14.3% annual growth in 2012, and 17.1% growth in 2011. Sales of gold and silver jewelry rose 42% year on year in July.

    Samsonite said its China revenue increased by an annual 8% in the first half of 2013, excluding the effect of currency gains. In the whole of 2012, the Hong Kong-listed luggage maker reported a 20% increase in China revenue.

    Want Want China reported revenue growth of 14.9% year on year in the first half of 2013, below the 19.4% growth it recorded in the first half of 2012. The food producer's core dairy and beverage segment grew 18.3%, it said this week, compared with 28% in the same period a year earlier.

    It's not just premium brands that are reporting slowing revenue growth in the People's Republic. Retail sales in almost every category are increasing more slowly than they were a year ago. Growth in cosmetics sales has slowed from 15% to 10%, and knitwear from 18% to 12.5%. Only gold and silver jewelry, which has a speculative appeal, has been gaining momentum, with sales up 42% year on year in July. Tiffany (TIF) says its China sales are "especially strong".

    This is happening at the same time China's banks reported a sharp rise in bad loans from the retail and wholesale sector in their interim earnings. China Merchants Bank said non-performing loans to retail-sector companies increased by 48%. At China Construction Bank the increase was 19%, and at China CITIC Bank 66%.

    Retail revenue cannot expand at double-digit rates indefinitely. But growth expectations are important for retailers deciding how much capital to tie up in stocks and new stores. The increase in bad loans to the retail sector suggests that some operators overestimated demand. Sportswear maker Li Ning was an early warning of what can happen -- it stuffed its retailers with unsaleable stock, and was forced to buy heaps of the stuff back to salvage its brand.