德国总理默克尔的下一个任务：拯救欧洲

    既然安格拉•默克尔已经充分确保自己将连续第三次成为德国总理，那她欣然和两个左翼对手党派共同建立大联合政府才是明智之举。这样做的目的是稳定政局，以便默克尔最终能够集中精力带领欧洲摆脱眼下的财政和货币困境。就在几年前，这样一个囊括默克尔所在政党以及社民党和绿党的大联合政府在政治层面上还无法实现，而今此事有望落实要归功于默克尔成功地让自己的政党占据了德国政坛的核心位置。

    建立大联合政府将在德国国内构筑政治信心，而这样的政治信心将支持默克尔实施一系列改革，以便确保欧元区更加稳定。这些改革措施不光要实现银行业一体化，还会让各国的财政政策更为一致。虽然因此带来的主权损失会让一些欧元区国家觉得难以接受，但在德国的全力支持下，几乎没有实现不了的目标。

    上周日，默克尔迅速击败竞选对手，轻松实现第二次连任。确切地说，由她领导的基民盟-基社盟在德国议会下院赢得了311个席位，接近多数，作为党主席的默克尔也就此登上了总理宝座。

    但基民盟-基社盟所获席位不足以让默克尔独立组阁——她还需要5个席位才能确保在议会的绝对多数。这就是说，她必须联合某个对手党派来组建政府。这在德国政坛是正常现象——德国独特的投票机制几乎必然会造成这样的结果。可惜的是，默克尔目前的联合执政伙伴、主张财政稳健和社会自由的自民党在上周日的选举中遭到了沉重打击，得票率低于5%的入围线，因而未能进入下院。这种情况在这个党派自1949年成立以来还是头一遭。人们怀疑，选票大量流失的原因是自民党未能按照2009年竞选时的承诺实施税收改革。也有人怀疑，夺走自民党选票的是对欧元持反对意见的德国新选项党，该党的得票率也未达到5%，也就是说它同样没能获得下院席位。

    随着自民党的出局，默克尔组建联合政府的可选方案已经变得非常优先。她绝对不会和左派党结盟，后者是共产主义政党，由前东德势力主导，支持德国退出北约组织（NATO）等政策。因此，默克尔必须和绿党或者社民党合作，后两者分别在下院占据63席和192席。它们都是中左翼党派，社民党更具中间倾向，绿党的左翼色彩更浓。

    默克尔在第一个任期内曾经成功地和社民党联合执政，因此组建这样的联合政府并非不切现实。当时，社民党、基民盟和基社盟共同组成的政府属于中间派，政策稳健。此后几年，默克尔一直想法设法，打算让自己的党派具备这样的特质。

    但对默克尔来说，把绿党也纳入联合政府所带来的政治效益要超过只和社民党联合组阁。这是因为社民党和绿党是德国议会上院的联合多数党。这一点很重要，因为上院可以阻止、否决下院提出的法案。因此，如果默克尔真的想在议会通行无阻，她就需要其他党派联合在上院为她提供支持。

    Now that Angela Merkel has decisively secured a third term as Chancellor of Germany, it would be wise to embrace a grand coalition with her two leftist rivals in order to attain the political stability necessary for her to finally concentrate on leading Europe out of its fiscal and monetary mess. While such a grand coalition with Merkel's party and both the SPD and the Greens would have been politically unfeasible just a few years ago, it could actually work today as Merkel has been successful in steering her party to the center of the political spectrum.

    By embracing such a coalition, Merkel would have the political confidence at home to support a number of reforms to ensure a more stable eurozone. That includes not only a banking union but also a closer alignment of fiscal policy. While this would entail a loss of sovereignty, which some in the currency union would have a hard time accepting, with the full backing of Germany, almost anything can happen.

    Merkel summarily crushed her opponents Sunday easily winning a third term as German Chancellor. To be more specific, her party, the CDU/CSU, crushed their opponents to secure a near majority in the lower house of the German parliament with 311 seats, thus giving the CDU/CSU party chairman, Merkel, the keys to the Chancellery.

    But Merkel does not have enough seats to govern alone -- she needs five more to secure a clear parliamentary majority. That means she must form a coalition with one of her rival parties. Such an arrangement is normal in German politics -- its odd voting system almost forces the issue. Unfortunately, her current coalition partner, the fiscally prudent and socially liberal FDP, were slapped so hard in the face by the electorate Sunday that they didn't achieve enough of the vote to secure the high 5% threshold necessary to garner seats in the lower house -- a first for the party since its founding in 1949. It is suspected that the party lost so many votes because it failed to achieve the tax reform it campaigned on in 2009. It is also suspected that it lost votes to the anti-euro AfD party, which also failed to reach the 5% threshold, meaning it will not have any seats in the lower house, either.

    With the FDP out, Merkel has very few options to form a coalition. There is absolutely no way she would align with Linke, the East German dominated communist party, which endorses policies like Germany exiting NATO, so that means she must work with either the Greens or the SPD, which garnered 63 and 192 seats in the lower house, respectively. Both are left of center with the SPD closer to the center and the Greens being further to the left.

    Merkel has governed successfully with the SPD during her first term in office so such a coalition isn't beyond the realm of possibility. The coalition with the CDU/CSU during those years produced a government that was centrist and prudent in their policies, something Merkel has tried to instill in her party in the years after.

    But a coalition with the SPD alone wouldn't be as politically beneficial to Merkel without also including the Greens. That's because the SPD and Greens make up the ruling coalition in the upper house of the German parliament. This is important as legislation created in the lower house can get stomped up and die in the upper house. As such, if Merkel ever wanted to pass anything, she would need complicit support from the upper house.