亚马逊无法攻克的行业

    亚马逊这样的新型零售巨头触角无处不在，先后挤垮了书店、鞋店、小家电等实体零售行业，但却拿休闲快餐行业没有办法。眼下，休闲快餐店正得到华尔街的垂青，其中的翘楚Potbelly和Noodles上市之后股价都实现了翻番。为什么？因为它们做到了亚马逊做不到的事情。

    时间已经进入2013年10月，IPO业绩最佳的行业依然不出我们所料：生物医药和科技。但也有两个例外：快速休闲连锁餐厅Potbelly和Noodles公司，这两家公司上市首日股价就翻了一倍。

    生物医药和科技类公司在股市表现抢眼可能离不开炒作，但Potbelly和Noodles公司能取得这样的成绩却要归功于其他原因：简单地说，它们是直接面向消费者的企业，能够做到亚马逊（Amazon）做不到的事情。

    Potbelly是一家位于芝加哥的三明治专卖店，它还提供沙拉和奶昔。上周五，这家公司的股价在14美元的发行价基础上实现了翻倍，达到28.66美元，使这家在美国拥有近300家连锁店、同时在海外拥有十几家分店的连锁企业的市值一下子达到8.025亿美元。现在一周过去了，它的股价依然坚挺，还是处在发行价两倍的点位。

    就在Potbelly公司上市之前几个月，总部位于科罗拉多州的休闲快餐公司Noodles 公司已经凭借抢眼的表现成功上市。这家拥有350家分店的连锁餐饮企业提供以面食为主的各式菜肴，公司股票发行价为18美元，但在上市首日就暴涨了104%。上周五，它的股价已经高达45美元。

    这两支股票的情况反映了市场目前对休闲快餐业的追捧，包括Panera和Chipotle这类餐饮店也在其列。据市调公司欧睿国际（Euromonitor International）称，这类餐饮业介于麦当劳（McDonald's）这种快餐连锁企业和Applebee's、Chili's等休闲餐厅之间，自2007年以来在美国已增长了57%，2012年销售额达到170亿美元。而同一时期，包括快速休闲餐厅在内的快餐业总体只增长了12%。

    欧睿国际（Euromonitor International）的消费者餐饮行业分析师伊丽莎白•傅兰德称：“过去五年里快餐业表现出令人难以置信的强劲增长，”同时强调，这个成绩是在经济衰退的背景下取得的。

    消费者之所以青睐休闲餐厅是因为它们价格亲民、菜品丰富，品质也不错。每顿饭只需花上8到10美元，这样出去打牙祭并不比在家吃饭贵多少了。Potbelly的价格甚至更低：一份三明治只要5美元。

    而投资者喜欢休闲快餐业的股票是因为它们的运营成本比那些高档餐厅要低，同时还能满足消费者对价格低、上菜快、而且显得健康的饮食的需要。

    但休闲快餐业的发展还有一个让投资者感到费解的地方：它们都是在消费类行业取得的增长。面对亚马逊、沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）、好市多（Costco）这类巨头的强大攻势，书店、鞋店和小型电子产品商店等零售企业日益衰败。然而尽管这类超级商家的触角几乎无所不在，但它们还没能染指快餐店广受欢迎的平价美食。

    晨星公司（Moringstar）消费者周期性和防御性研究全球总监R.J.霍托维表示，由于亚马逊这类公司的竞争，“在消费者领域不再有多少增长概念可言了”。因此，“投资者已从传统的零售领域转向了餐饮业，他们认为这个行业会有更长期的增长潜力”。

    行业观察家预计，快餐业过去这几年的10-11%年增长率还将保持下去。傅兰德说：“从市场规模看，传统快餐业的规模为2000亿美元，而休闲快餐所占的份额为170亿美元，因此增长空间还是非常大的。”

    也就是说，除非亚马逊能用更好的办法为我们提供热乎乎的烘烤美食，否则它在这个市场没什么机会可言。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远 

    Ten months into 2013, the list of top performing initial public offerings is full of what you might expect: biopharmaceutical corporations and tech companies. But there are two outliers: fast casual restaurant chains Potbelly and Noodles & Company, which both saw their share prices more than double on their first days of trading.

    While hype might have factored into the market debuts of bio and tech companies, Potbelly and Noodles got a boost for a different reason: Put simply, they are consumer-facing businesses that can do what Amazon can't.

    Shares of Potbelly (PBPB), a Chicago-based sandwich shop that also offers salads and shakes, more than doubled from their initial trading price of $14 last Friday. They shot up to $28.66, giving the chain, which has nearly 300 domestic stores and a dozen overseas, a value of $802.5 million. A week later, the company's share price is still at double its starting point.

    Potbelly's IPO came just a few months after an impressive market debut by Colorado-based Noodles & Company (NDLS). In June, the 350-store restaurant chain that offers customers noodle dishes from a variety of cuisines saw its IPO starting price of $18 jump 104% in its first day of trading. On Friday, Noodles shares hovered around $45.

    Both offerings highlight the current frenzy over the fast-casual restaurant industry, which also includes eateries like Panera (PNRA) and Chipotle (CMG). This segment of the restaurant industry falls somewhere between fast food joints like McDonald's (MCD) and casual dining spots like Applebee's and Chili's, and it has grown 57% in the United States since 2007, accounting for $17 billion in sales in 2012, according to Euromonitor International. The fast food industry as a whole -- which includes fast casual restaurants -- grew by 12% during that same period.

    "Fast casual has had an incredibly impressive five years," says Elizabeth Friend, a consumer foodservice analyst at Euromonitor International, noting that they did well even in the recession.

    Consumers like fast casual restaurants for their low prices, numerous menu options, and relative quality. Meals are priced between $8 and $10, so eating out doesn't cost a customer significantly more than staying in. Potbelly has an even lower price point: You can buy a sandwich there for $5.

    Investors are fans of fast casual because they have lower operating costs than fancier sit-down restaurants, and they meet consumers' demand for cheap, ostensibly healthy meals on-the-run.

    But fast casual restaurants also offer investors something else that's proven elusive: growth in consumer business. Retail segments like bookstores, shoe stores, and small electronic shops have seen their growth stunted by the likes of Amazon.com (AMZN) and big box chains like Wal-Mart (WMT) and Costco (COST). Though the reach of these mass merchants is vast, it hasn't creeped into restaurants' cheap, hot meals.

    "There aren't a whole lot of growth concepts in [the] consumer space anymore" because of competition from the likes of Amazon, says R.J. Hottovy, Moringstar's global director of consumer cyclical and defensive research. As a result, "investors have shifted from traditional retailers to restaurants, where they think there's a longer runway of growth."

    Industry watchers expect the 10-11% annual growth that fast casual restaurants have seen over the past few years to continue. "If you look at market sizes, traditional fast food industry is $200 billion and fast casual makes up $17 billion of that," says Friend. "The room for growth there is still very large."

    That is, unless Amazon figures out a better way to get you a hot, toasty sub.