全球汽车巨头最后的市场高地在哪里

    全球汽车巨头目前正在享受巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国（所谓的BRIC四国）的汽车销售带来的好处。如果他们未来十年希望复制这种局面，他们就必须在目前汽车保有量较低的四个主要区域市场发力。

    中东地区尽管政治动荡，但却很有可能是这四个地区中市场规模最大的一个。而对全球汽车巨头来说，这四个市场就是“最后前线”。据波士顿咨询集团（Boston Consulting Group）的一份研究报告称，其他三个分别是东南亚、南美洲西半部地区以及北非地区。

    这个所谓的“BRIC以外市场”——其中既有印度尼西亚这样的大国，也有伯利兹城这样的小国——到2020年汽车总销量将达到2100万辆，大大超过目前的1500万辆，年平均增长率为6%。它将诞生一个比目前年销量达1700万辆的中国市场还要大的汽车市场，也比北美市场和欧洲市场要大。

    波士顿咨询集团全球汽车业务部门主管泽维尔•莫斯奎特说：“这个集团中的前15个国家将至关重要。”这个第一阵营包括那些到2020年年销量至少达到40万辆的新兴市场国家。

    目前，丰田汽车公司（Toyota）是东南亚和中东地区的销量冠军，而通用汽车公司（General Motors）的雪佛兰事业部是哥伦比亚到智利这些南美国家的销量之王。法国车企雷诺公司（Renault）及其达契亚品牌则在北非地区遥遥领先。

    波士顿咨询集团合伙人、同时也是该公司汽车研究报告的联合作者尼古拉斯•S.朗表示，想要在这些新兴市场获得可观份额，汽车厂商必须充分考虑这些区域市场的情况，因为它们之中的任何一个国家都不可能产生BRIC四国中某一个单一市场的销量。

    在这些区域市场中，来自不同国家的消费者将会表现出非常宽泛、各有特点的品味和偏好，所以汽车厂商不再能简单地把在其他市场大获成功的车型出口到这些市场。他们必须开发新车型，还要设法在当地生产。

    比如，土耳其的消费者喜欢紧凑型和次紧凑型车，这两种车占到当地市场销量的一半以上。但在紧邻的伊朗，微型汽车却更受欢迎。而沙特阿拉伯人想买SUV和皮卡，这两种车占到当地市场销量的35%。波士顿咨询集团称，到2020年，中东市场年销量将达到580万辆——使它成为比巴西更大的汽车市场。

    美国厂商通用汽车和福特汽车（Ford）如果想从东南亚和中东的市场增长中获利，就要为当地市场量体裁衣。而克莱斯勒-菲亚特（Chrysler-Fiat）合资公司目前还远远落后，要想不被关在这些市场的大门之外，就必须拿出自己的战略。这对任何一家厂商来说都不是件容易的事，因为每个国家都有特殊的规则、规定、文化特点和税收政策，需要厂商去适应。在那些较小的国家，就算这些厂商能够很好地适应，也无法获得可观的销量。

    If global automakers want to benefit from sales growth over the next decade -- as they do now in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the so-called BRIC nations) -- they must figure out how to sell in four major regional clusters where vehicle ownership has been sparse.

    The Middle East, despite its political instability, is likely to be the largest of the four regional clusters that constitute the "Final Frontier" for global automakers. The other three are Southeast Asia, the western half of South America, and North Africa, according to a study from the Boston Consulting Group.

    The so-called beyond BRIC markets -- which include countries as large as Indonesia and as small as Belize -- could collectively account for 21 million vehicle sales annually by 2020, up from 15 million currently and representing an annual average growth rate of 6%. That would result in a larger vehicle market than China's, currently at 17 million in annual sales, and bigger than North America or Europe.

    "The top 15 countries in this group will be incredibly important," says Xavier Mosquet, who leads BCG's global automotive practice. This top tier includes emerging market countries that should have sales of at least 400,000 vehicles annually by 2020.

    Toyota (TM) currently is the top-selling automaker in Southeast Asia and in the Middle East, while General Motors' (GM) Chevrolet division is the top seller in the South American countries stretching from Colombia through Chile. French automaker Renault and its Dacia brand lead in North Africa.

    Automakers vying for a substantial share of the rising markets will be forced to think in terms of regional clusters, since none of the countries will come close to generating the sales of a single BRIC market, according to Nikolaus S. Lang, a BCG partner and co-author of the firm's auto study.

    Within geographic clusters, consumers from different countries are expected to exhibit a broad and eclectic range of tastes and preferences, so automakers will not be able to simply export models that have been successful elsewhere. They will have to develop new versions and figure out how to manufacture locally.

    In Turkey, for example, shoppers are interested in compact and subcompact cars, which account for more than half the auto market there. But in adjacent Iran, smaller minicars are most popular. Saudi Arabian buyers aspire to big SUVs and pickups, which account for 35% of the market. According to BCG, the emerging Middle East could see sales of 5.8 million vehicles annually by 2020 -- making it a bigger car market than Brazil.

    U.S. automakers GM and Ford (F) have their work cut out if they intend to gain from the growth in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. The Chrysler-Fiat partnership is far behind and must come up with a strategy to keep from being shut out. It won't be simple for any automaker, because each country has particular rules, specifications, cultural traits, and tax policies that require adaptation; in the case of small countries, even if automakers can adapt, they won't be rewarded with a large number of sales.