三中全会：土地和国企改革不一定迎拐点

    本周末，中国共产党即将召开一场重要的，甚至堪称历史性的会议，至少中国官方媒体是这样宣传的。这场定于周六开始、为期四天的活动将在北京举行，它的正式名称是中国共产党第十八届中央委员会第三次全体会议。预计将有大约200位中央委员出席这次会议。

    过去一年，包括国家主席习近平在内的新一届领导班子登上了权力之巅。在前两次全会上，新一届中央领导集体主要商讨了人事变动议题。三中全会历来备受关注，原因是，它曾经产生过推动中国巨大变革的重大经济事件。比如，正是在1978年举行的三中全会上，邓小平再次出山，成为中国当时的最高领导人。

    中国官方媒体不断宣称，三中全会预期将在惩治腐败、建立自由市场和保护环境等方面推出重大改革举措。新华社本周发表社论称，十八届三中全会“有望引领中国进入一个历史性转折点，并将改变中国的经济增长模式。”《中国日报》(China Daily )上周末在头版刊发报道称，中国总理李克强决心推动地方政府转变职能。这份报纸今天的头版通栏标题是《用5到10年的时间缓解环境污染问题》。

    一切都看起来非常乐观。许多人认为，中共中央正在释放积极的信号，随后必将出台强有力的改革措施。但习近平迄今为止的任期显然趋向于保守主义。尽管他上任伊始展现出的改革派姿态引发过热议，但重大的政治改革还没有出现。恰恰相反，国家级媒体频频向跨国公司发难，相继调查了苹果公司(Apple)的专利侵权案，星巴克咖啡连锁店(Starbucks)涉嫌价格欺诈事件，以及葛兰素史克制药公司(GlaxoSmithKline )的行贿丑闻。此外，中国北方地区的污染正在逼近危机级别，而政府依然在探讨至少还需五年才能见效的整治措施。预测新一届政府马上就会推行大刀阔斧的改革似乎不切实际，尤其是考虑到本届政府上任一年来应对中国各种问题时所表现出的谨慎态度。

    西方媒体对本周末会议的期许更加审慎一些。潜在的重大变革将出现在经济领域，但这些同样是不确定的事情。比如，土地权利问题和国有企业改革不一定会迎来政策拐点。

    当然，我们可能无法获悉本周末究竟会发生什么事情，因为相关消息被视为国家机密。摄像机和记者不准进入会场，演讲稿也不会提前散发——中共三中全会与美国总统的国情咨文（国情咨文指美国总统就政府业绩和规划在国会所作的年度讲话——译者注）恰好是对立的两极。

    目前而言，观察人士只能阅读坊间的种种预言，期盼着中国采取措施来解决它日益严重的问题。在这样一个很多重大政策走向依然模糊不清的时刻，一个让人略感欣慰的消息是，中国决心确保中国的国内生产总值每年至少增长7.2%。（财富中文网）

    译者：叶寒      

    China's Communist Party is spending this weekend in meetings. Important ones, maybe even historic, or at least so say the state press. The four-day event that starts Saturday in Beijing is officially called the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee, a mandatory retreat for the country's top 200 or so communists.

    New party members, including President Xi Jinping, rose to power in the past year and spent their first two plenary sessions mostly on personnel changes. That's why the big buildup to the third, which has historically produced the kind of economic events that are credited with propelling the country forward, such as Deng Xiaoping's ascension to power at the 1978 session.

    China's state-run press is telegraphing big reforms on corruption, free markets, and the environment. The official Xinhua news agency wrote this week that the Third Plenary "is expected to steer the country into an historic turning point and transform its growth pattern." China Daily carried a front-page story over the weekend about Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's push to liberalize local governments. And the newspaper today ran the banner headline: POLLUTION TO EASE IN FIVE TO 10 YEARS.

    But it all looks optimistic. There's the Party's message, and then there's the Party's actions. And so far President Xi's term has been marked by a notable move toward conservatism. Major political reforms haven't happened despite early chatter about his reformist ways. Instead, state media have investigated multinationals like Apple (AAPL) for patent infringement, Starbucks (SBUX) for price gouging, and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) for bribery. Moreover, pollution is reaching crisis levels in the country's north, and the government is still talking about fixes being at least five years away. Predicting drastic reforms from the new government seems unrealistic, especially after a year in which the same government has reacted cautiously to the country's problems.

    The Western press is more guarded about the weekend session. The key potential changes are in economic reform, but those aren't certain. Neither are land rights issues, nor moves to reign in anti-competitive state-owned enterprises.

    Of course, it may be impossible to know what happens over the weekend, because the news is treated as a state secret. No cameras are let in, no reporters, no speech transcripts distributed ahead of time -- the polar opposite of an American president's State of the Union address.

    For now, observers can only read the prognosticators, hope that China takes steps to address its growing problems, and take comfort in knowing that the country is determined to grow GDP at least 7.2% a year at a time when much else remains unclear.