全球经济晴雨表思科预示中国还有阴雨

    互联网泡沫破裂之后12年的大部分时间里，思科公司（Cisco）一直是科技行业的领头羊。它的股票表现很大程度都在跟着纳斯达克走。可以说思科生产的交换机和路由器很大程度上构造了今天这个互联程度越来越高的世界的神经系统。所以思科公司的订单也就具有了提前反映广域经济的剧烈波动的能力。由于思科公司经常在收益电话会议上发表对宏观经济的看法，因此它还赢得了华尔街的重视。

    比如2008年1月，思科公司注意到来自汽车制造企业和金融机构的订单下降了，不久之后金融危机和大萧条即席卷而来。2009年3月，在大萧条最严重的时候，思科又注意到经济即将触底反弹，因为许多客户开始趋于稳定，说明最坏的时候正在过去。

    到了2009年，思科在硅谷的影响里已经远远不及20世纪90年代，但它仍然被奉为“互联网的脊梁”，因为它是全球最大的交换机和路由器销售商。即便如此，一年后，思科也开始面临艰难的局面，公司的股价在2010年4月一度达到每股27美元后开始一路走低。

    不光如此，思科的走势也已经不再紧跟纳斯达克。从2010年春到现在，思科股价已经下跌21%，同期纳斯达克综指则上涨了59%，思科从业界的领头羊变成一只“病羊”。这主要是受低端市场竞争激烈的影响，此外软件驱动型网络的崛起，以及苹果（Apple）、谷歌（Google）、Facebook等大公司纷纷自行建设数据中心也是导致思科一蹶不振的原因。

    这几年来，思科一直努力想在机顶盒、软件等市场领域有所斩获，结果也是喜忧参半。最近几年，思科公司已累计裁员8000人，经过如此大刀阔斧的改革，终于帮助公司股价在今年8月重返26美元以上。但不久后，随着思科公司向投资者警告收入增速有放缓迹象，公司股价也再度下跌。最近思科表示还会再裁掉4000个岗位，这不禁让人担心，思科到底还得裁掉多少人才能翻身。

    上周，又传来了更令人失望的消息。思科公司称，公司本季度收益预计将下跌9%，利润预计为每股46美分，比华尔街的预测低了6美分。消息一出，思科股价再次应声下跌11%，跌至每股21美元。也就是说，现在思科的股价恰好鬼使神差地跌到了10年前，也就是2003年11月中旬的水平。

    思科公司最近的衰退有多大比重是由内部原因引起的？又有多大比重是由宏观经济因素引起的？高盛（Goldman Sachs）把思科的这两个问题精简成了一个问题。因为从长期看来，思科还可以通过在其它市场进行收购的方式来实现增长。因此更令人担忧的问题也就不言而喻了——思科是否预见了另一轮经济风暴正在来袭？

    思科CEO约翰•钱伯斯在上周的电话会议上指出，公司订单从九月下旬起突然下降。联邦政府关门带来的影响其实并不大（政府客户贡献的收益只下降了1%），削减订单的客户主要来自一些新兴经济体，尤其是它们在十月份突然出现了显著下降。

    钱伯斯称：“在最近一个季度，我们主要的五个新兴市场的订单共下跌了21%，其中巴西下跌了25%，墨西哥、印度、中国都下跌了18%，俄罗斯下跌了30%。”来自北美和欧洲的订单则稍有增加。即便有美国政府关门这件事的影响，公共部门的订单数量仍然表现不错，但来自服务业的订单却下跌了13%。

    For most of the 12 years since the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco was a true tech bellwether. Its stock performance has largely tracked the Nasdaq. Its switches and routers composed the nervous system of an increasingly connected world, and so its orders became an early warning system of sudden shifts in the broader economy. Cisco won Wall Street's respect by regularly sharing its views on the macroeconomy in its earnings conference calls.

    In January 2008, for example, Cisco (CSCO) noticed a slowdown in orders coming from automakers and financial institutions -- a warning of the financial crisis and recession that was to follow. In March 2009, in the nadir of the Great Recession, Cisco again forecast a bottom, reporting that its customers were seeing "stabilization" as the worst was passing.

    By 2009, Cisco wasn't quite the Silicon Valley luminary it was in the late 1990s, but it was still considered the Internet's backbone, the biggest seller of switches and routers. A year later, Cisco began to face tough problems. After reaching $27 a share in April 2010, Cisco began to slump.

    More than that, Cisco stopped tracking the Nasdaq. It's lost 21% of its value since the spring of 2010, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained 59%. Cisco went from bellwether to laggard, hurt by competition on the low end of its market, the rise in software-driven networks and the desire of giants like Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) to build their own data centers.

    Cisco's efforts over the years to diversify into set-top boxes, software, and other markets have had mixed results. The company cut 8,000 jobs in recent years, helping to push its stock back above $26 a share in August of this year. Shortly after, the stock declined as Cisco warned investors of slower revenue growth. Cisco said then it would cut another 4,000 jobs, prompting concerns of how many cuts were needed for Cisco to turn itself around.

    Last week, the news became even more dire. The company said it expects revenue to decline 9% in the current quarter and forecast profit at 46 cents a share, or 6 cents below the Street's consensus. Since then, Cisco has lost another 11%, falling to $21 a share. That puts Cisco's stock exactly where it traded a decade ago, in mid-November 2003.

    How much of the recent declines are caused by Cisco's internal issues vs. the macroeconomic factors the company has long been able to predict? Goldman Sachs figures it breaks down to two parts Cisco problems to one part global economy. Longer term, Cisco can still turn things around by buying its way into growing markets. What's more worrisome is the suggestion of new economic headwinds: Does Cisco see another storm coming?

    In last week's conference call, CEO John Chambers pointed to a sudden slowdown in orders in late September. The impact of the government shutdown was muted, he said, (revenue from government customers declined only 1%). Rather, the decline was coming from a number of emerging economies, where orders suddenly dropped off in October.

    In the most recent quarter, Chambers said, "Our top five emerging markets declined 21%, with Brazil down 25%, Mexico down 18%, India down 18%, China down 18%, and Russia down 30%." Orders from North America and Europe rose slightly. Pubic sector revenue did well despite the U.S. government shutdown, but orders from service providers fell 13%.